By Adam Thompson | | 8 mins
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders Picks & SNF Betting Predictions
A critical and intriguing AFC West showdown is set for Sunday Night Football in Week 10, as Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs head to the desert to face Derek Carr and the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Raiders are 5-3, the Chiefs 5-4, in a wild division where every team is above .500. Betting sites and most betting apps have Kansas City at -2.5 in the latest Chiefs vs. Raiders NFL spreads range, with the line moving a half-point from -3 at opening.
Take a look at Chiefs vs. Raiders odds, injury report, betting lines and more.
Chiefs vs. Raiders Key Matchups
Darren Waller vs. Chiefs LBs: Waller had seven receptions for 92 yards after a one-game injury absence. The Chiefs have been the worst defense at slowing down opposing TEs.
Patrick Mahomes targets vs. Raiders DBs: Vegas ranks No. 2 in fewest TDs allowed and No. 3 in fewest yards allowed to opposing receivers. Three of Mahomes’ top four targets are WRs, including the top in Tyreek Hill.
Josh Jacobs vs. Success: The less the Raiders RB is used, the better Vegas has done. Jacobs is averaging 38.6 yards per game in three wins and 54.7 ypg in three losses. In the two games he missed, Vegas won them both.
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5 Key Chiefs vs. Raiders Stats
2.5: Average amount of TDs thrown in six career games vs. the Raiders, not to mention a 314 yards-per-game average. Mahomes has just six TDs over the last five games.
9%: The cover percentage rate by the Chiefs in their last 11 games against AFC opponents – just 1-10 ATS.
91: Total tackles by Raiders LB Denzel Perryman, third-most in the NFL and 22 more than the Chiefs’ leader, Nick Bolton.
100%: The win percentage by the Chiefs when Tyreek Hill scores a TD (4-0). They’re 4-0 when Hill gets at least nine targets, compared to 1-4 when he doesn’t.
611.3: The yards per game passing for the Raiders and Chiefs combined this season. Each team ranks in the top six in the NFL.
Chiefs vs. Raiders Weather Forecast
It doesn’t matter what the weather is like at kickoff, with the game held inside shiny Allegiant Stadium. For those heading to the game, it will be ideal. Sunday’s high in the desert is a manageable 80 degrees, with sunny skies and no chance of rain.
Chiefs vs. Raiders Player Props
Travis Kelce & Darren Waller, Over 50 Receiving Yards Each
Odds: -120 at FOX Bet
These tight ends rank first and fourth in yards per game at their position. (Kelce 69.8, Waller 67.1). Each is a top-two target on their team. The Raiders and Chiefs defenses rank 30th and 28th in yards allowed to tight ends.
Josh Jacobs, Under 56.5 Rushing Yards
Odds: -115 at DraftKings
The less Jacobs runs, the more successful the Raiders have been. The more Kenyan Drake is used, the better the Raiders have been. Expect a lot of passing and less running overall, but look for more touches from the shifty Drake.
Tyreek Hill, Over 73.5 Receiving Yards
Odds: -110 at DraftKings
It’s clear that when Hill is the lead dog in the offense, the Chiefs are better. This number is well below the 85.8 ypg he averages this season. He hasn’t hit 100 yards since Week 4 but he’s still the No. 1.
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Chiefs vs. Raiders Moneyline
When it comes to NFL betting on the moneyline, favored Kansas City is a modest -140 on the moneyline, while Las Vegas is set at +120.
Despite a 5-4 record, the Chiefs have underachieved. They’ve been favored in every game this season. The Raiders had turned things around before a disappointing road loss to the Giants last Sunday. But they’ve been better at home and their superior passing, and pass defense, are the other keys. A Raiders moneyline pick is enticing for Sunday night.
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Chiefs vs. Raiders Point Spread
The Chiefs are favored by 2.5 points on a point spread line that has trended slightly in Vegas’ favor. Neither of these teams have been good at meeting oddsmakers expectations; the Chiefs are just 2-7 against the spread this season, the Raiders a modest 4-4.
While the Raiders are ranked poorly when it comes to running the ball and stopping the run, those issues don’t help the Chiefs. Vegas, meanwhile, matches up very well with KC’s pass attack, and Carr is in position to have a big day. The wrong team is favored here. Back the Raiders and take the points. You can get the Raiders +2.5 (-105) at DraftKings.
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Chiefs vs. Raiders Totals
NFL sportsbooks have posted an Over/Under of 51.5 points for Sunday Night Football – that’s the third-highest total of Week 10, but it’s also a total that has dropped two points since opening.
These teams are opposite in terms of their Over/Under trends. The Over is an impressive 10-0-1 in the Raiders’ last 11 instances as the home underdog and 7-1 in their last eight at home overall. The Under has hit in the Chiefs’ last four games and it’s been the long trend in this matchup of rivals.
From this perspective, the Chiefs have a lot more potential to score a ton of points, and not slow down the Raiders. The number is high enough, and the Chiefs inconsistent enough, to avoid this total on your NFL picks lineup for Week 10.
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