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Bill Speros for Bookies.com

By Bill Speros | | 11 mins

Top Matthew Stafford Prop Bets For Super Bowl 2022

Top Matthew Stafford Prop Bets For Super Bowl 2022

LA Rams QB Matthew Stafford needed 13 NFL seasons and a change in scenery to reach his first Super Bowl. The Rams acquired Stafford from the Detroit Lions before this season and the NFL odds soon had the Rams among the favorites to win the NFC.

What can prop bettors expect from Stafford when the Cincinnati Bengals and LA Rams clash Sunday in Super Bowl 56 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California?

After a dozen years in Detroit, Stafford is just 60 minutes on his home field away from his first Super Bowl ring. Combined with NFL regular-season receiving Triple Crown winner Cooper Kupp and a ferocious defense, Stafford has erased nearly all the doubts he carried into the postseason. Stafford was winless in the playoffs (0-3) in his career before the Rams beat Arizona in the Wild Card Round.

RELATED: Bengals vs Rams: Super Bowl 56 Betting Guide

Stafford Has Avoided The Big Mistake

Throughout the playoffs, fans and bettors have been waiting for Stafford to make that big “mistake” that could prove fatal for the Rams. They’re still waiting. Stafford has 6 TDs against just one pick thus far.

In the postseason opener against the Cardinals, the Rams dominated in a 34-11 victory. In that game, Stafford only needed to throw the ball 17 times. But he hit on 13 passes for 2 TDs, 202 yards and a stellar 154.5 QB rating.

The Rams then traveled to Tampa Bay to face Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champions. Stafford and the Rams raced to a 27-3 lead, only to watch Brady and the Buccaneers wipe out that deficit and tie the game at 27-27 with less than a minute to play. Stafford then found Kupp on a pair of passes that covered 64 yards in just 29 seconds. The final pass set up a game-winning field goal as time, and Brady’s career, expired.

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Beating Brady’s understudy Jimmy Garoppolo was just as stressful at home in the NFC Championship Game, despite a crowd that was equal part Rams’ fans and equal part Levi Stadium South. Stafford needed to throw the ball 45 times in that game as the 49ers stuffed LA’s ground game. Stafford threw his lone interception of the playoffs against San Francisco, but completed 29 passes for 336 yards and a pair of TDs.

Much of the pre-game attention has been focused upon Stafford’s counterpart, Joe Burrow of the Bengals. Both are former No. 1 overall picks. Stafford lacks the swag, splash, and youth of Burrow. And he doesn’t seem to care. The favored Rams are -4 (-112) at FanDuel and -4.5 (-110) at DraftKings and other major books.

Matthew Stafford Super Bowl 56 Best Bets To Back

Top Matthew Stafford Prop Bets For Super Bowl 2022 1

We have examined the full NFL betting board available and pulled specific props to back on Stafford in Super Bowl 56 from the top betting sites and betting apps.

Prop & Total PickOdds
279.5 Yards Passing Over -110 at BetMGM
39.5 Yards, Longest CompletionOver -110 at BetMGM
23.5 Completions Over -135 at DraftKings
36.5 Attempts Under -114 at FanDuel
0.5 Interceptions Over -125 at Caesars

Odds via FanDuel, Caesars, DraftKings, and BetMGM. They are current as of publication. Check out our comparison of DraftKings vs FanDuel for more on two of the sportsbooks.


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Matthew Stafford, Over 279.5 Yards Passing

Odds: -110 at BetMGM

BUZZ: Stafford put up boffo numbers against the Buccaneers and 49ers, averaging 351.5 yards against two of the fiercest defenses in the NFL. The Rams’ running game has stalled of late. Their path to victory in the Super Bowl remains through the air. Given the big-play ability of Odell Beckham Jr. and Kupp, this number is very reachable. Stafford averaged over this number (287.4 YPG) during the regular season and has done so (301.6) in his 3 playoff games. In all, Stafford has gone over this total in 14 of his 20 starts this season.


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RELATED: Super Bowl 56 MVP Odds, Picks & Predictions

Matthew Stafford, Longest Completion Over 39.5 Yards

Odds: -110 at BetMGM

BUZZ: The Bengals have given up 395.7 YPG during the postseason and yielded 367.1 YPG during the regular season. That means lots of big plays allowed by the defense. No team this season has delivered more exciting big-yard plays during the season than the Rams. Stafford & Friends have gone over this number 13 times this season and have eclipsed it twice already in the playoffs.


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Top Matthew Stafford Prop Bets For Super Bowl 2022 2

Matthew Stafford, Over 23.5 Completions

Odds: -135 at DraftKings

BUZZ: If we haven’t said this enough already, shop around in all these markets. This number bounces between 23.5 and 24.5 depending on where you choose to bet, with the price fluctuating depending on your number. Even though this is a bit pricey, we think this might be the best bet on the board here.

Stafford easily surpassed this number against the 49ers and Buccaneers. His 13 completions against Arizona were enough because that game was both decided early and the Rams began resting early for their game the following week at Tampa Bay. His season average is 23.8. You might want to play this both ways if you can, given how close his season average is to 24.


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Matthew Stafford, Under 36.5 Attempts

Odds: -114 at FanDuel

BUZZ: This one will be close. If you like a close game that goes down to the wire, Stafford should easily go over this number. If the Rams can exert their will on defense and keep the Bengals at bay, Stafford and the Rams will play it safe late and keep the ball on the ground. Despite the hype, the Rams are in the middle of the NFL pack with 35.4 pass attempts per game over the course of the season and 35.6 attempts per game at SoFi Stadium. Technically, the Rams are the “road” team in this game.


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RELATED: Complete Super Bowl Betting History: Odds & Outcomes

Matthew Stafford, Over 0.5 Interceptions

Odds: -125 at Caesars Sportsbook

BUZZ: Stafford has thrown 18 interceptions in 20 games. He’s thrown 7 at SoFi Stadium this season. Eight of Stafford’s picks came in four games of the regular season. Stafford tied for the NFL regular-season lead with 17 picks and was our preseason pick to win that title. Stafford has only thrown one pick in the postseason. But the Bengals’ secondary has forced seven turnovers in the postseason, six were interceptions.


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About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.