By Bill Speros | | 6 mins
Most Bet On Week 5 NFL Games: Underdogs Put Bite On Bettors
The NFL betting public has been roughed up financially thus far in 2021, losing big overall in three of the first four weeks of play.
Underdogs continue to howl in 2021, and the nation’s betting sites have profited accordingly. The underdogs are 38-26 (59.4%) against the spread. That would net a profit of $854.20 for $100 bettors using the industry standard -110 odds. The record of those same underdogs straight up tells nearly the opposite tale. Moneyline bettors backing the ‘dogs are just 26-37 (41.3%) but would have turned a small net profit overall based on the closing lines.
Big spreads have delivered mixed results for underdog bettors. Underdogs of 10 or more points are just 1-4 (20%) in 2021. But after a total of 64 NFL games, 19 of them have been decided by three or more scores. The most lopsided spread of the season – Buffalo (-19) at home against Houston – delivered an easy cover ATS and straight up win for the home team. The Bills scored a decisive 40-0 victory.
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AFC Title Game Rematch Week 5 Focus
The week’s most-bet game again will likely occur on Sunday night. The Bills return to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City for a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs (-3) scored an easy cover in that game blasted the total of 54.5 with a 38-24 win over the Bills. The game this week is also being hyped as a potential 2022 AFC title game matchup, as well. The early money this week has bettors fading the hometown favorites and backing the Bills at +2.5.
The Bills have snagged 60% of the spread handle and 79% of early moneyline betting at DraftKings. That site has Buffalo at +125 and the Chiefs at -145. It’s hard to envision books carrying a huge one-sided liability on this game once it kicks off, given the strength of both teams and the small line.
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The Bills and Chiefs scored convincing victories in Week 4 against less-than-impressive opponents. Kansas City outdistanced Philadelphia 42-30 but covered ATS for just the second time in 15 games. Despite that putrid run, the Chiefs have continued to gobble up the public’s money. Oddsmakers have delivered some lopsided spreads knowing the betting public remains enamored by Patrick Mahomes II and his mastery of the football.
The total is a lofty 56.5, with 83% of the DK handle supporting the over. That under here is a daring play but could be a wise one considering the strength of Buffalo’s defense. It has pitched two shutouts thus far, albeit against inferior opponents (Miami and Houston).
In defense of the Chiefs backers, the defending AFC champs faced Cleveland, Baltimore, and the LA Chargers in the first three weeks of the season. Those teams are a combined 9-3 this year.
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Don’t Forget About Us – The Sequel
The four NFC West teams – who compete in NFL’s toughest and most competitive division – face division opponents for the second week in a row.
Arizona sports betting fans are giving up 5.5 points on their home Cardinals, as the San Francisco 49ers visit Glendale. The public is nearly split evenly. Overall, 59% of the spread handle on this game is backing the favorites, according to our analysis of the action at Caesars, BetMGM, bet365, Resorts, PointsBet, SugarHouse, 888, FOX Bet and DraftKings.
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Public Plays – Week 5
Biggest Spread Liabilities
|TEN at JAX||TEN||-4||92%|
|NYG at DAL||DAL||-7||85%|
|DET at MIN||MIN||-9.5||85%|
|NE at HOU||NE||-8.5||83%|
|GB at CIN||GB||-3||83%|
|MIA at TB||TB||-10||83%|
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Major Week 5 Line Movements
Titans at Jaguars
Opening Line: Titans -7.5
Current Line: Titans -4.5
The Buzz: This line opened with the Titans getting a full touchdown plus. But losing to the Jets tends to knock down anyone’s line, especially a team like the Titans that has underperformed this season. The off-the-field dalliances of Urban Meyer have may have turned the Jaguars against their coach, but that could prove to be a benefit for those who back the Jags to cover for the second week in a row.
Patriots at Texans
Opening Line: Patriots -7
Current Line: Patriots -8.5
The Buzz: Bettors pushed this line up from -7 to as high as -9.5 earlier in the week after the Texan’s big loss and the Patriots’ close call against Brady & Company. But early bettors have faded the favorites as the week has progressed. The total opened at 40, the lowest for either team thus far in 2021 and has been further pushed down to 39.5 as of Thursday.
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49ers at Cardinals
Opening Line: Cardinals -2.5
Current Line: Cardinals -5.5
The Buzz: When this was originally set, the Cardinals could not even get the traditional -3 line given for the home team in an ever matchup. Now, the Cardinals are 3-1 and rank among the league’s elite teams of 2021. The 49ers are drifting as questions loom at QB and across the defense.
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