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Bill Speros for Bookies.com

By Bill Speros | | 75 mins

2022-2023 NFL Divisional Odds Tracker

2022-2023 NFL Divisional Odds Tracker
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Super Bowl bets are the most popular form of NFL futures betting, but they aren’t the only type of wager. AFC & NFC conference title odds are heavily bet, but NFL divisional futures have grown in popularity, too. With just four available teams in each market, NFL division odds have become a go-to futures bet, not only during the offseason, but during the weekly grind of the NFL season. Bookies.com tracks the odds to win for all eight divisions for the 2022-23 NFL season.

Odds to Win the AFC East

TeamCurrent OddsPreseason Odds
Buffalo Bills -225 -190
Miami Dolphins +250 +450
New York Jets +1200 +2200
New England Patriots +3000 +500

Odds via BetMGM and current as of Nov. 28.

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Here are some notes on the AFC East odds movement:

  • Nov. 28: The Bills and Dolphins held their price this week after both teams recorded wins in Week 12. The Dolphins hold the first-place tiebreaker due to their win over Miami earlier this season. The Patriots and Jets switched places. New England saw its price tumble from +1400 to +3000. The Jets are just a game behind both Miami and Buffalo at +1200. A potential value play.
  • Nov. 23: The Bills' odds settled a bit thanks to their easy win over Cleveland and stand close to where they were in Week 1. The Dolphins saw their price slip during the bye week, while the Patriots got a sizable boost after sinking the Jets.
  • Nov. 15: Buffalo's wild home loss to Minnesota in Week 10 forced an adjustment, from -300 to -190. The Bills' odds are back to what they were before Week 1, but they're still the class of the division, though Miami, the Jets and New England all have lower odds than the week prior.
  • Nov. 8: The price on the Bills has collapsed following their Week 9 loss to the Jets. We've been high on the Dolphins when their price was +1200 last week. Hard to back off now. The Jets are always tempting. But they're still not proven. The Dolphins have the veteran talent to make a run at Buffalo.
  • Nov. 1: The Bills have the highest price of any NFL team to win their division. But the Dolphins made some moves at the trade deadline to let everyone know they are serious this season. If you want a value play, that's it.
  • Oct. 26: The Patriots have finally found their way to the bottom of this market. The Jets remain a good value as a smaller play.
  • Oct. 19: The Bills have the highest odds of any team in this market. Any why not? If you're seeking value, take a look at the Jets. (No, we have not been hacked.) The Bills and Jets still have two games against each other on the schedule and the distance between them is just one game. At this price, Gang Green is worth a small part of your green.
  • Oct. 11: The Bills lead this division by just one game in the standings but their lead in this market is far more significant. Buffalo has only played one divisional opponent - losing to Miami 21-19 in Week 4. The Dolphins are swimming without a stable name at the QB1 position, with both Tua and Teddy nursing head injuries. Baily Zappe continues to amaze in New England.
  • Oct. 6: The Bills have surged clear of the Dolphins, moving to -400 after beating the Ravens in Week 4. Tua Tagovailoa's violent head injury has left Miami in limbo. It's out to +350 to win the division.
  • Sept. 27: The Dolphins edged the Bills in Week 3, costing Ken Dorsey his computer and dignity. This division might be interesting after all. The Dolphins saw their price tighten from +400 to +230.
  • Sept. 20: Bet the Dolphins to win the AFC? Sure. Bet the Dolphins to win the Super Bowl? Why not? But don't bet them to win the AFC East.
  • Sept. 13: The gap between the Dolphins and Patriots widened after Miami's win in Week 1. But the Bills are a juggernaut.
  • Sept. 6: The Bills will be the team to beat until they are beaten. The Dolphins and Patriots will fight for scraps - and value bets.
  • Aug. 29: The Bills breezed through preseason and emerged unscathed. They are now -225 to win the AFC East. Behind them, the Dolphins and Pats sit tied at +475.
  • Aug. 11: With the NFL preseason underway, the Bills have strengthened their grip on the AFC East odds board. The Dolphins have drifted out slightly from +400, as have the Patriots. The Jets remain serious long shots.
  • July 20: As NFL training camps open, the Bills remain the undisputed favorite to win Super Bowl 57, the AFC and the AFC East. The Patriots and Dolphins both edged a bit closer after positive offseason reports concerning Mac Jones and Tua Tagovailoa.
  • May 26: The Bills remain the solid favorite to three-peat in the AFC East after two decades of dominance by the New England Patriots. Buffalo is also favored to win the AFC and Super Bowl 57 given the movements made in the offseason, led by the addition of linebacker Von Miller.

The Bills repeated as AFC East champions and beat the Patriots in the wild-card round of the playoffs, scoring on seven possessions without a punt. The Bills are loaded. The Dolphins added a new coach and Tyreek Hill. They've also solidified Tagovailoa as their QB. The Patriots lost Josh McDaniels to the Las Vegas Raiders and failed to move the needle significantly in free agency or the draft.


Odds to Win the AFC North

TeamCurrent OddsPreseason Odds
Baltimore Ravens -250 +220
Cincinnati Bengals +210 +220
Cleveland Browns +2500 +170
Pittsburgh Steelers +5000 +1000

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Here are some notes on the AFC North odds movement:

  • Nov. 28: The Bengals made a major leap after beating the Titans and the Ravens stunning loss at Jacksonville. The price on the Bengals spiked to +210 from +400, while the Ravens saw their number shrink in half from -500 to -250. Baltimore's sudden vunerability has given this market some life.
  • Nov. 23: The Ravens continued to pull away from the Bengals after their fourth straight win in Week 11 and appear headed for the division title. The Bengals' price edged up after they defeated the Steelers.
  • Nov. 15: The Ravens have now won three in a row and their odds have improved all the way to -450. Baltimore owns only a one-game lead over the Bengals, though Cincinnati's odds are +350. The Steelers' divisional odds made the biggest move of any NFL team, going from +6600 just one week ago to +4000 after their win over the Saints.
  • Nov. 8: Never mind the AFC North, it's time to start thinking about the Ravens as a Super Bowl contender. Lamar Jackson has stacked impressive back-to-back road wins at Tampa Bay and New Orleans. The Bengals, too, have seemed to fixed their early-season woes and are value priced. This one is gonna be fun.
  • Nov. 1: After the Bengals bungled their Halloween night game at Cleveland and turned into frogs, their price nearly doubled from +180 to +350. These temperamental swings are commonplace. The concern for the defending AFC champs is as much Baltimore as it is themselves. The Ravens have shown a consistency lacking in the rest of the division and are on the upswing.
  • Oct. 26: The value is with the Bengals and they remain the best play given their improvement in recent weeks. Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase are in a groove again.
  • Oct. 19: Whatever value there was on the Bengals is evaporating. In reality, this division is a toss-up between Cincinnati and Baltimore. Both are 3-3. The market has yet to reflect that reality. The Ravens hold the tie-breaker by virtue of their 19-17 win over Cincy in Week 4. But they meet again in Week 18 at Cincinnati. That's likely when this division will be decided.
  • Oct. 11: The Ravens winged the Bengals 20-19 thanks to - what else - a last-second, game-winning kick of the golden toe of Justin Tucker. The Bengals still have plenty of upside and there's not much room in the standings, or on paper, between these teams.
  • Oct. 6: The Ravens lost to the Bills and their odds dropped from -120 to -105 to win the AFC North. The Bengals, who beat the Dolphins in Week 4, jumped the Browns for second spot in the division. The Steelers are cooked, all the way out at +3000.
  • Sept. 27: The Ravens, Browns and Bengals bounced back in Week 3 and saw some tightening. Cleveland slipped past Cincinnati for the second spot here.
  • Sept. 20: All four AFC North teams lost in Week 2. So there was minimal movement here.
  • Sept. 13: Lots of Week 1 overreaction as this market tightened from top to bottom. The value on the Steelers noted below has evaporated.
  • Sept. 6: The Ravens hold their edge over Cincinnati. The Steelers are a solid value play here.
  • Aug. 29: Deshaun Watson will miss the first 11 games of the season through suspension after an agreement was reached with the NFL. The Browns' price to win the AFC North moved from +320 to +400. Jacoby Brissett will start at QB.
  • Aug. 11: Very little movement in the AFC North as the NFL preseason begins. The Ravens, who should have running back JK Dobbins back for Week 1, remain slight favorites over the Bengals.
  • July 20: The Ravens and Bengals have pulled away as near co-favorites in the AFC North. Joe Burrow enters training camp as legit MVP contender due in part to a revised offensive line. The Browns have seen their price collapse after trading Baker Mayfield to the Panthers amid uncertainty over Deshaun Watson's suspension.
  • May 26: The AFC North is up for grabs, at least according to oddsmakers, due to the uncertain situation surrounding Watson. The NFL has yet to decide if Watson will face any discipline from the sexual assault allegations made against him. Watson won't face criminal charges, but Commissioner Roger Goodell can place any player on the exempt list for any reason and for any length of time.

The Cincinnati Bengals won the AFC North after being an afterthought at the start of the season. The Bengals went to the Super Bowl thanks to the steady play of Joe Burrow and a fierce defense. The Bengals loaded up in the offseason to give Burrow protection on the offensive line.

2022-2023 NFL Divisional Odds Tracker 1

Odds to Win the AFC South

TeamCurrent OddsPreseason Odds
Tennessee Titans -900 +135
Jacksonville Jaguars +700 +700
Indianapolis Colts +2000 -105
Houston Texans +50000 +2500

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Here are some notes on the AFC South odds movement:

  • Nov. 29: The Titans were caught literally and figuratively by the Bengals in Week 12. They still hold a solid grip on this market no matter what the Colts do or don't do. The Jaguars are too far back to make a run - this season.
  • Nov. 23: The AFC South-leading Titans saw their price double from -500 to -1000 after their Week 11 win over the Packers in Green Bay last Thursday night and losses by the Texans and Colts on Sunday. The Jaguars were on the bye but could only watch their price fall from +500 to +1000. It's hard to envision any scenario where the Titans will be caught here.
  • Nov. 15: The AFC-South leading Titans took care of business in Week 10 with a 17-10 victory over the Broncos, and their odds lowered rightfully, from -300 just one week ago. The Colts moved from +1000 to +750 after beating the Raiders in the first game for new coach Jeff Saturday and the unexpected return of Matt Ryan at QB.
  • Nov. 8: The Titans took the Chiefs to overtime in Week 9 and did it on the road, holding Patrick Mahomes & Company to just 17 points in regulation. They're running away with this thing. Meanwhile, the Colts have shifted their focus from Sunday to Saturday.
  • Nov. 1: The price on the Colts doubled from +225 to +450 this week after their loss to Washington. The Colts are now two games back of the Titans, plus down two games on the tiebreaker. Mike Vrabel has righted the ship in Tennessee. This one might be over.
  • Oct. 26: The Titans beat the Colts in Week 7, sweeping the season series and knocking Matt Ryan out of the QB1 spot in Indy, perhaps for good. That outcome flipped this market, putting the Titans in command and sending the Colts from +110 to +225.
  • Oct. 19: The gap between the Colts/Titans and the rest of the division widened significantly this week after Indianapolis beat Jacksonville. The Titans were idle on the bye. If one team is going to pull away here, it will be Indianapolis. The Colts remained atop this market without Jonathan Taylor. He is expected to return this week. Indy's price is high, but its chances here are better than indicated.
  • Oct. 11: The Texans upset Jacksonsville in Week 5 for their first win of the season. The Titans hold a half-game edge but are tied with Indy in the loss column. This division should remain close for the forseeable future. In this tight market, the Titans offer the best value as of now.
  • Oct. 6: This division is up for grabs. The Jags, despite losing to the Eagles in Week 4, have jumped to top spot at +175. The Colts are back at No. 2, currently available at +180 after losing to the Titans. Then you have Tennessee, which has moved up to +200 on the back of that victory.
  • Sept. 27: The Jaguars and Titans flipped spots this week, with Jacksonville (+225 from +350) sliding behind favored Indianapolis. The Colts upset the Chiefs, so their odds tightened to +100 from +135.
  • Sept. 20: The only team in the AFC South with a victory after Week 2 is the Jaguars. Jacksonville's price doubled from +700 to +350 this week. The price on the Titans and Colts is still too high.
  • Sept. 13: The Texans rocketed from +3000 to +1800 after their tie with the Colts. Houston isn't there yet.
  • Sept. 6: The Jaguars are another solid value play. Otherwise this market is far too pricey.
  • Aug. 29: The Colts' price gets a little shorter, moving from -135 to -140. Their beginning to the season (@Texans, @Jags) means a 2-0 start is likely. Should that happen, you won't be getting -140 so act accordingly.
  • Aug. 11: Oddsmakers like what they see from the Colts, tighening their price from -115 to -135. The other remaining teams have drifted out as a result. The Jags at +800 look like good value.
  • July 20: Matt Ryan should give the Colts an immediate boost right out of the gate in training camp. His presence will be a welcome change and bring stability in the locker room and on the field. Mike Vrabel was unable to capitalize on the No. 1 seed in the playoffs last season. His seat will get warm quickly if the Titans struggle early.
  • May 26: The Colts dealt Carson Wentz and added Matt Ryan at QB. That change, combined with the offensive and defensive players already returning, gives them the edge here. The Titans are still mentally regrouping after their Divisional Round loss to the Bengals at home. Ryan Tannehill threw 3 picks in that loss.

The Titans rolled through the regular season and won the AFC South with the best record in the AFC. The Colts improved later in the season and should be able to springboard into contention this fall. Meanwhile, keep an eye out for Jacksonville, now coached by Doug Pederson.


Odds to Win the AFC West

TeamCurrent OddsPreseason Odds
Kansas City Chiefs -5000 +150
LA Chargers +2500 +250
Las Vegas Raiders +12500 +700
Denver Broncos OTB +250

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Nov. 28.

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Here are some notes on the AFC West odds movement:

  • Nov. 28: The Denver Broncos became the first team mathematically eliminated from this market with their Week 12 loss to the Panthers. That loss, combined with the Chiefs win over the Rams, pushed the Broncos six games back of the Chiefs with six games to play. But the Chiefs hold the tiebreaker.
  • Nov. 23: Kansas City beat the Chargers for the second time this season on Sunday night. Its price to win another AFC West title soared four-fold from -1000 to -4000. The Chargers were the only team with a chance to catch the Chiefs this season have tumbled from +475 to +2500 in just two weeks.
  • Nov. 15: Kansas City won its third straight, 27-17 over the Jaguars, and its odds skyrocketed from just -650 one week ago. The Chargers, the only team considered a true contender to KC's crown, lost on Sunday night. With it, their odds nearly doubled from +475.
  • Nov. 8: We're just waiting for the mail-in ballots to make this official.
  • Nov. 1: This market remained static this week. Don't expect any major movement until if/when the Chiefs lose next.
  • Oct. 26: The number on the Chiefs tightened after Kansas City routed San Francisco on the road in Week 7. The Chiefs are now -325, wideneing the space between them and the second-place Chargers.
  • Oct. 19: The Chiefs' price loosened a bit this week but they remain a solid favorite. The Chargers barely beat the Broncos in Week 6, needing overtime on Monday night. LA remains too inconsistent to be considered a threat to KC. And that loss to Buffalo may be the last one suffered by the Chiefs for a while. Perhaps until next season.
  • Oct. 11: Kansas City's price spiked again from -150 to -260 after its thrilling 30-29 comeback win over Las Vegas. The Chiefs appear headed for another division crown. The Chargers are good but have yet to demonstrate their ability to elevate to a championship level. The Broncos and Raiders have been early-season flops. Denver's odds have ballooned from +350 to +1400 in just two weeks.
  • Oct. 6: Kansas City improved its odds to -185 after an impressive win in Tampa Bay over the Bucs. The Chargers got back on track against the Texans, and leapfrogged Denver to take second spot behind the Chiefs at +375. The Broncos went down to the Raiders, dropping Denver's odds from +350 to +500.
  • Sept. 27: The Chiefs may win this thing by default. They remain a solid favorite despite their Week 3 loss. The Broncos moved into 2nd place at +350 from +500 by default via an 11-10 triumph over the 49ers.
  • Sept. 20: The price on the Chiefs spiked from +130 to -105. The Chargers and Broncos also saw their odds shortened. While there is the appearane of value with Denver and the Chargers, the Chiefs are just too strong here.
  • Sept. 13: The Broncos and Raiders tumbled after their Week 1 losses. Now is the time to move on either team. We're not ready to bail on the Broncos after their debacle in Seattle.
  • Sept. 5: The Chiefs are priced far too high here. The Broncos at +300 is a borderline steal right now.
  • Aug. 29: Good luck picking a winner from this lot. Las Vegas has climbed slightly from +650 to +600, while Denver has fallen from +260 to +275 over the last two weeks.
  • Aug. 11: The most competitive division in football has bunched up even further. The Chiefs are at +175 from +155 in mid July. The Chargers, Raiders and Broncos have all climbed the board slightly. This will be a roller-coaster ride through the season.
  • July 20: The buzz generated by Russell Wilson’s offseason workouts has reverberated throughout the Rocky Mountains. Russ looks ready to cook breakfast, lunch, and dinner. Nothing has changed concerning the rest of the AFC West being the power center of the NFL. This division has four teams that could win it all and 4 QBs who could be MVPs. The Broncos and Chargers are a solid coin-flip at +250.
  • May 26: The odds have settled with this division being as much of a tossup as any in recent memory. The Chiefs are looking for a sixth-straight AFC West title.

The Kansas City Chiefs won the West and made it all the way to the AFC title game before falling to the Bengals. This offseason saw two new head coaches join the division. Josh McDaniels left New England to take over the Raiders. And Nathaniel Hackett is now head coach in Denver. The Broncos then brought in Russell Wilson at QB. The Raiders were able to lure WR Davante Adams from Green Bay to give Derek Carr a very reliable and familiar target.


Odds to Win the NFC East

TeamCurrent OddsPreseason Odds
Philadelphia Eagles -375 +200
Dallas Cowboys +500 +110
New York Giants +2000 +700
Washington Commanders +15000 +500

Odds via BetMGM and current as of Nov. 29.

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Here are some notes on the NFC East odds movement:

  • Nov. 29: The Eagles beat the Packers on Sunday Night Football to keep a firm grip on this market. The Cowboys successfully kept the Giants at bay with a Thanksgiving win over the G-Men. But Dallas' price moved out to +500 with Philly's continued strong play.
  • Nov. 23: The Eagles have the best record in the NFL at 9-1 and rallied to beat the Colts 17-16 in Week 11. But their price has fallen for two straight weeks. The Cowboys moved from +500 to +300 after wrecking the Vikings 40-3 in Minneapolis. The Giants paid a price for losing to the Lions and dropped from +1000 to +2000 in this market.
  • Nov. 15: The Eagles' odds actually dipped from -400 despite dropping their first game of the season, a shocker at home on Monday night to th Commanders. That's because the Cowboys, considered the only legit threat, lost to the Packers. The Giants, who improved to 7-2, saw their odds drop big-time from +1800 but they're still an outlier.
  • Nov. 8: This market has yet to reflect the competitive nature of this division. Philly's 8-0 start looks much more impressive than say "a two-game" lead. With the NFL schedule stacked with divisional matchups at the back end of the season, this once could well come down to the 7 p.m. hour on Sunday, January 8.
  • Nov. 1: By now, you should have realized that these markets don't always reflect the current NFL standings. The top three teams here are separated by just two games. But the pricing does not reflect that. The Eagles hold the tiebreaker over the Cowboys but have not played the Giants. There is still good value here with New York and Dallas if you feel either one is worth the play.
  • Oct. 26: The still-perfect Eagles were on the bye in Week 7. The Cowboys and Giants - both 6-1 - maintained their pace with wins. There was some slight tightening here, but the next big move will occur when/if the Eagles lose.
  • Oct. 19: Both the Cowboys and Giants offer real value here. Their prices remain attractive. And both teams are just a game out, with the Cowboys down one game in the tiebreaker. The Eagles are the NFL's lone unbeaten team heading into Week 7. So you are paying for that right now. It's not going to last. This division is too deep. And when the Eagles and Cowboys meet next at Jerry World on Christmas Eve, Dak Prescott should be at QB. And no, they don't boo Santa Claus in Arlington.
  • Oct. 11: The price of the Eagles reflects both their perfect 5-0 record and an expected win over Dallas at home Sunday night in Week 6. The real bargain here is the Giants. If Big Blue proves to be legitimate, this could be the buying opportunity of the year in this market. This is the best division in football because of its strength and balance. None of the top teams are 1985 Bears dominant.
  • Oct. 6: The Eagles are the last unbeaten team left in the NFL at 4-0. They have a firm grip on this odds board at -350 after seeing off the Jaguars in Week 4. The Cowboys are staying afloat with Cooper Rush at QB and are next at +350. The Giants are back to +1200. Washington is looking to next season.
  • Sept. 27: The Eagles continue to fly above the fray and have the only perfect record (3-0) in the NFC. The Big Blue Bubble burst in New York on Monday night and the Giants' price was cut nearly in half from +550 to +1000. The "G Train" is empty.
  • Sept. 20: The Eagles have soared away from the pack after a 2-0 start and a decisive win over Minnesota in Week 2. The Giants are also 2-0 but are not getting much love in this market. At +550, they are worth a look.
  • Sept. 13: The Eagles, Giants and Commanders were all Week 1 winners. Big Blue popped to +475 after being +800. The Birds moved into negative territory to -150 after a solid performance (they failed to cover) against the Lions. The Cowboys met with disaster Sunday night. They flipped from the No. 2 choice to the No. 4 pick, but the overall market tightened.
  • Sept. 6: The secret is out on the Eagles, who have surpassed the Cowboys as the favorite in this market. But Philly isn't worth a wager here at this price. Dallas on the other hand.
  • Aug. 29: The Eagles continue to gain ground on the Cowboys, to the point they're basically neck-and-neck atop the division now. Dallas lost LT Tyron Smith to a fractured kneecap in camp. He's out until at least December.
  • Aug. 11: You've lost a little value on the Eagles if you didn't back them in July, as their price has gone from +190 to +160 to win the NFC East. There's serious camp buzz around Jalen Hurts and his connection with new recruit AJ Brown.
  • July 20: There’s been minimal movement on this board since the NFL Draft. The Eagles remain the best wager here given the price.
  • May 26: The Philadelphia Eagles have caught the eyes of oddsmakers after the additions on offense made in free agency and the optimism surrounding Jalen Hurts. The Giants brought in Brian Daboll as head coach, but their focus appears to be on 2023 and beyond. The Commanders have both a new nickname and Carson Wentz at QB.

The Cowboys won the NFC East with a 12-5 record but flopped in the wild-card round of the playoffs at home against San Francisco.

2022-2023 NFL Divisional Odds Tracker 2

Odds to Win the NFC North

TeamCurrent OddsPreseason Odds
Minnesota Vikings -10000 +270
Detroit Lions +4000 +1200
Green Bay Packers +6600 -180
Chicago Bears +15000 +950

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Here are some notes on the NFC North odds movement:

  • Nov. 28: The Vikings saw their price double after a Thanksgiving night victory over the Patriots and losses by Detroit and Chicago. The Vikings can clinch this division as soon as Week 13 with a win over the Jets and a loss by Detroit to Jacksonville.
  • Nov. 23: The Vikings did not suffer for losing to the Cowboys by 37 points in this market and held at -5000. What is notable is that the Lions and Packers are now tied at +3500. An amazing flip from how the season began.
  • Nov. 15: The Vikings just beat the Bills in the NFL's wildest game of 2022, and their odds exploded to massive-favorite heights, from just -2500. The Packers, which were at +2000, snapped a four-game losing streak with an impressive OT win over the Cowboys but Minnesota's win trumped Green Bay's.
  • Nov. 8: The Green Bay Packers are +2000 to win the NFC North heading into Week 10 of the season. That is the biggest betting surprise of the season. And it isn't even close. The Vikings carry the highest price of any team in this market. They hold a 5-game lead in the loss column over Green Bay with just 9 games to play.
  • Nov. 1: The Vikings came off the bye and beat Arizona. The Packers then dropped their third straight. That widened Minnesota's lead to four games over both the Bears and Packers.
  • Oct. 26: The Vikings were on the bye in Week 7 but saw their lead over Green Bay widen to three games in the NFC North. The Vikings also hold the tie-breaker over Green Bay, as well.
  • Oct. 19: The number on the Packers was widened to +250 after back-to-back losses to the Jets and Giants. The 5-1 Vikings have won four straight and hold a two-game lead over 3-3 Green Bay. Minnesota beat Green Bay in Week 1. The teams meet again at Lambeau Field on Jan. 1. Frozen tundra anyone? The Packers should begin their road back to contention this week against Washington. But three games is a big hole after just six weeks.
  • Oct. 11: The Vikings (-8) sailed to the top of this market after beating but failing to cover against the Bears 29-22 in Week 5. The Packers were upended in London by the Giants and, frankly, played like they were in a different time zone. Back-to-back losses to the Giants and Jets in consecutive weeks might leave Green Bay in a deep blue state. If you believe Green Bay survives an appearance from the Jets in Lambeau, grab the Packers now at +110. This will likely be their best value price of the season.
  • Oct. 6: The Packers, who were made to sweat by Bailey Zappe and the Patriots, have seen their odds move out to -130 from -140, while the Vikings, who beat the Saints in London, have come in from +180 to +125. It's a battle between those two for the division crown.
  • Sept. 27: The Packers escaped from Tampa Bay in Week 3 and continued to move away from the rest of the divison.
  • Sept. 20: Aaron Rodgers STILL owns the Bears and the Packers still control this market. Place a small wager on the Lions just in case the magic is real.
  • Sept. 13: Aaron Rodgers still owns the NFC North, but his claim on the division has been challenged by the Minnesota Vikings. Green Bay is still the favorite, but fell to +110 from -180. The Vikings rallied after their win. Their number was boosted from +280 to +150. The price on the Bears was nearly halved (+2000 to +1100) as they swum past the 49ers.
  • Sept. 6: Aaron Rodgers owns the NFC North.
  • Aug. 29: A slight tightening at the top of the NFC North, where the Vikings have gone from +265 to +250 and the Packers have gone from -190 to -170.
  • Aug. 11: Justin Fields has nobody to throw to, hence the Bears' price at +1400. It continues to slide. There's been very little movement around the Vikings and Packers.
  • July 20: If Aaron Rodgers remains healthy, the Packers will be a prohibitive favorite here. Interesting movement at the bottom of the division, however, as the Bears have slid to the bottom. We’re not saying we like the Lions at +900, but they did go 11-6 ATS last season. That was good enough for 4th overall in the NFL.
  • May 26: Even without Davante Adams, the Packers and Aaron Rodgers remain the solid favorite to win this division. It remains difficult for oddsmakers to see a path for the Vikings to make a serious challenge.

The Packers finished the 2021-22 season with a 13-4 record and the No. 1 seed in the NFC. But that wasn't enough in the playoffs, as they were stifled at home in the Divisional Round by the San Francisco 49ers at snowy Lambeau Field. Two teams have new head coaches in the division. The Bears brought in Indianapolis defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus as their new head coach. And the Vikings hired Kevin O'Connell, who was offensive coordinator of Super Bowl 56 champion LA Rams.

Odds to Win the NFC South

TeamCurrent OddsPreseason Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -400 -300
Atlanta Falcons +750 +1600
New Orleans Saints +1000 +375
Carolina Panthers +1600 +1200

Odds via DraftKings and current as of Nov. 28.

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Here are some notes on the NFC South odds movement:

  • Nov. 28: Oddsmakers continue to favor the Bucs regardless of what's happening on the field. Tampa Bay came off the bye in Week 12 with a calamitous loss to the Browns. The Falcons, meanwhile, failed to capitalize in a close loss to the Commanders. Prices held relatively stable here. Still, Tampa Bay tighted back to -400 from -450. The Falcons ebbed to +750 from +600.
  • Nov. 23: Oddsmakers continue to favor the Bucs regardless of what's happening on the field. Tampa Bay was on the bye in Week 11 and the Falcons rallied to beat the Bears. Still, Tampa Bay bounced up from -400 to -450 while the Falcons slid from +500 to +600. The Saints rolled behind Andy Dalton and rose to +1000 from +1100.
  • Nov. 15: The Falcons and Saints each lost in Week 10, while the Buccaneers won in Germany. And with that, oddsmakers are beginning to make the strong push for the Bucs, who were just -210 one week ago. The Bucs own the third-easiest remaining schedule going forward.
  • Nov. 8: Tom Brady is 1-0 after getting divorced. The Buccaneers moved back into first place at 4-5 by virtue of the tie-breaker with Atlanta. The winner of this divison gets to play host during Wildcard Weekend. Still can't see Brady not closing this out. The price on the Falcons is a solid value if you dare to go against the GOAT.
  • Nov. 1: The Falcons lead this division but not this divisional odds market. Atlanta is 4-4 and hold the lead over both 3-5 Tampa Bay and New Orleans. The Tom Brady factor is strong here, given that the GOAT has never finished under .500 in a full season as a starting QB. Brady backers would be wise to take this number now. One or two wins would propel the Bucs back to a very high price.
  • Oct. 26: The Buccaneers lost 21-3 to the Panthers and haven't looked so bad since before they signed Tom Brady. There is a chance every team in this division could be 3-5 after Week 8. If that is the case, the Panthers (currently +2000) would hold first place due to the tie-breakers involved. If you want value and feel lucky, pick one of the teams here not named Tampa Bay and let it ride.
  • Oct. 19: The Falcons are 6-0 ATS and tied with the Buccaneers at 3-3. Tampa Bay beat Atlanta two weeks ago and holds the tiebreaker. For now. Tom Brady was terrible against the Steelers and we keep hearing that the walls are closing in. Brady and the Buccaneers get Carolina this week. That should be the perfect cure-all. The Falcons might be worth a small investment at this price as a hedge.
  • Oct. 11: The Bucs, with some help from the refs, took a major step toward repeating as division champs with a win over Atlanta in Week 5. Tampa Bay is 2-0 against the NFC South and has a win at New Orleans in its Pirate Ship safe. This race is about two or three weeks away from inevitability status. Your money is better invested betting on the Giants at +1200 in the NFC East.
  • Oct. 6: The Bucs were beaten for the second straight week, this time by the Chiefs, but oddsmakers still like Tampa Bay to win the NFC South. It helps that the Panthers and Falcons are useless. Plus, the Saints are struggling with injury, including to QB Jameis Winston.
  • Sept. 27: The Buccaneers still hold the key here. Once Tom Brady gets (most of) his offense back, look out.
  • Sept. 20: The Bucs won the fight and the game against the Saints in Week 2. This market is closed until further notice.
  • Sept. 13: The Bucs and Saints play Sunday in New Orleans. Expect significant movement next week.
  • Sept. 6: Oddsmakers sense value in the Saints, whose price has tightened in the past week from +250 to +300. New Orleans is the current trendy upset pick in the divisional betting market.
  • Aug. 29: All seems settled in the NFC South, despite Tom Brady's mysterious 11-day break from Buccaneers camp. They are still the team to beat and their odds have actually got shorter, from -250 to -275.
  • Aug. 11: The Panthers continue to edge up the odds board following their trade for Baker Mayfield. The Saints, too, have some momentum after positive camp reports on first-round pick Chris Olave and fellow WR Michael Thomas, who is returning after a long-term ankle injury. The Bucs have gone from -300 to -250.
  • July 20: The Panthers make a minor move on this board after picking up Baker Mayfield to compete with Sam Darnold for the QB 1 spot. But Brady and the Bucs remain a Super Nova, even with Rob Gronkowski opting to stay retired.
  • May 26: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers brought the band back together one more time, complete with a new head coach. Bruce Arians "resigned" and was replaced by defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. The Bucs are still waiting on word from TE Rob Gronkowski, but he is likely to return. The Falcons, meanwhile, lost QB Matt Ryan to the Colts after 14 seasons. The Saints have settled on Jameis Winston. The Panthers remain lost in Middle Earth.

Tom Brady quit but returned to the Buccaneers after a 40-day retirement. Brady's return settled the NFC South back to where it was at the end of the 2021-22 season. Tampa Bay rolled to the division title with 13 wins. Sean Payton stepped aside as head coach in New Orleans and was replaced in-house by Dennis Allen.

2022-2023 NFL Divisional Odds Tracker 3

Odds to Win the NFC West

TeamCurrent OddsPreseason Odds
San Francisco 49ers -800 +180
Seattle Seahawks +500 +1400
Arizona Cardinals +10000 +300
LA Rams +25000 +135

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Nov. 28.

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Here are some notes on the NFC West odds movement:

  • Nov. 28: The 49ers' gap here continues to grow. San Francisco shut out New Orleans and lept to -800 from -370. The Cardinals, Rams and Seahawks all lost, and saw their prices fall accordingly. The Seahawks have tumbled from +220 to +500 in two weeks. The Cardinals held at +10000. The Rams are now +25000, the highest price in any market. Quite a fall for the Super Bowl champs.
  • Nov. 23: The 49ers widened the gap with the rest of the divison with a solid win over the woeful Cardinals in Mexico City, moving from -275 to -370. The Seahawks were on the bye after losing to Tampa Bay in Germany and slipped on the board to +270 from +220. The Cardinals and Rams have fallen out of contention and all but off the board at +10000 and +15000 respectively. The Super Bowl champion Rams began the season at +135. Ouch.
  • Nov. 15:The 49ers' odds to win the division were halved after a victory over the Chargers on Sunday Night Football. Seattle's odds rose from +140 to +220 after the Munich loss to the Buccaneers.
  • Nov. 8: The value is long gone on the Seahawks, who were +1100 just three weeks ago. The 49ers are too steep here, while the Seahawks are still a value in comparison.
  • Nov. 1: It's difficult to see which team is getting the least regard among oddsmakers: The first-place Falcons in the NFC South or the first-place Seahawks in the NFC West. Seattle leads this divison, which also features the two teams that played in last season's NFC title game. Seattle was +1100 just two weeks ago. This price is a bit too high.
  • Oct. 26: The Seahawks are in first place this week but are third in this market at +600, moving up from +1100 last week. The Rams were on the bye so the top was basically static following San Francisco's loss.
  • Oct. 19: The Rams, 49ers and Seahawks are all 3-3. But don't be confused by the numbers here. The Seahawks are priced accordingly. The Rams and 49ers are basically a pick 'em. The Rams don't appear to be poised for another title run. The 49ers had an early East Coast hiccup last week. Unfortunately, the Chiefs come to town this week. Wait here to get a better price next week.
  • Oct. 11: The 49ers continue to extend their edge over the rest of the division and moved from -105 to -175 after their Week 5 win in Charlotte that sent former Panthers coach Matt Rhule packing. The price on the Rams is much higher than their play warrants. The Super Bowl hangover is very real in Inglewood.
  • Oct. 6: The 49ers jumped the Rams to take top spot on the odds board after beating LA at home on Monday Night Football. LA's price has gone from -125 to +120, while San Fran is at -105 from +150. They'll likely flip a few more times before the end of the season.
  • Sept. 27: The Rams moved into negative territory after taking another win at Arizona. Their price rose from +120 to -125. The 49ers' number tightened slighty (from +170 to +150) after their loss because both the Cardinals and Seahawks lost.
  • Sept. 20: The top 3 teams in the division won in Week 2, while Seattle settled back into reality. There's not enough value on the Cardinals. The 49ers are a strong play with Jimmy Garoppolo back at QB.
  • Sept. 13: The Seahawks soared from +2000 to +900 after knocking off the Broncos in Russell Wilson's homecoming. Otherwise, the divison was flat since the Rams, 49ers, and Cardinals were all losers in Week 1.
  • Sept. 6: Be wary of the 49ers, especially with a QB in Trey Lance who has only started a pair of NFL games. The SB 56 champion Rams are tough not to back here, even at this high number.
  • Aug. 29: The Seahawks, starting Geno Smith in Week 1, are now massive long shots for the division, but little has changed at the front with the Rams and 49ers atop the board. The Cardinals have gone from +400 to +380 over the last two weeks.
  • Aug. 11: Still not much to report in the NFC West. Rumors around Matthew Stafford's elbow injury have not stopped the Rams from improving their odds to win the division, going from +135 to +125. The Niners also have edged up the board, with the Seahawks rooted to the bottom and the Cardinals in between.
  • July 20: Little movement since the spring here. Uncertainly around the 49ers QB situation still lingers heading into camp. But a Jimmy Garoppolo trade at this point will have little impact on the 49ers price given the available QBs on the market.
  • May 26: The Rams continue to be favorites to repeat as NFC West champions as the NFL looks toward training camp. The Super Bowl champions enter the season without Von Miller (who left for the Bills in free agency), the injured Odell Beckham Jr. and retired offensive lineman Andrew Whitworth. Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford, and Cooper Kupp remain ready to defend their Super Bowl title.

The disparity in this division is gaping. The Rams won the Super Bowl. The Seahawks traded Russell Wilson to Denver. The NFC West could easily have the best and worst teams in the conference this season. The 49ers reached the NFC championship game last season before sputtering in the fourth quarter. Multiple attempts to deal Garoppolo failed. Once Garoppolo is fully healed, he may well be traded as the 49ers go with Trey Lance at QB. The Arizona Cardinals continued their soap opera but kept Kyler Murray as their QB.

About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.