NFL Week 5 Betting Recap: How About Them Cowboys
The NFL betting public scored its first victory of 2021 in Week 5 as the top five teams in the NFL against the spread covered again with heavy sentiment at their backs.
America’s Team continues to earn that moniker among pro-Cowboys bettors across the fruited plains. Dallas rose to 5-0 ATS with a 44-20 rout of the hapless-again New York Giants. The Cowboys are the lone unbeaten NFL team ATS this season.
The DraftKings Sportsbook carried 81% of its spread liability at -7 and 91% of its moneyline liability (-340) on Dallas. The numbers at FanDuel Sportsbook were a bit easier on the operator. There 72% of the spread handle and 76% of the moneyline handle rode with Dak Prescott & His Posse.
The Cowboys, Cardinals, LA Chargers, Bills and Packers are now combined 21-4 ATS this season after enriching the bettors who supported them on Sunday. The 1972 Miami Dolphins had to keep their champagne on ice as one more week the 5-0 Cardinals scored a close cover (-5.5) over the 49ers in a 17-10 win. Arizona sports betting players of legal age continue to profit backing their home team.
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’Worst Week Of The Season’
”Worst week of the season so far for us. But we’ve had a pretty good first four weeks so I can’t complain,” Thomas Gable of the Borgata Sportsbook AC told Bookies.com Sunday evening. “The biggest decision for us was the Eagles and Panthers game. We really needed the Panthers which obviously didn’t come through. The best result was Minnesota not covering against Detroit.” The book was also reliant on the Chiefs to cover.
The Eagles (+3.5) beat Carolina outright 21-18 and kicked off at +160 on the moneyline. The Vikings (-10) barely beat the Lions 19-17 outright.
The metaphorical AFC torch was passed to Josh Allen and the Bills with their 38-20 rout of the Chiefs in Kansas City. Bills Mafia was given 2.5 points. That was an offer no one outside Missouri could refuse.
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Week 5 will likely mark the final time in 2021 where the Bills are underdogs at top betting sites and on betting apps. Look for a possible pick ‘em on December 12 when the Bills visit Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Bettors at FanDuel backed the Bills, Bucs, Packers, and Titans in “lopsided betting splits,” as well, the site said.
For WynnBet, the biggest liability on the weekend came courtesy of the Cardinals win/cover and the Tennessee Titans (-5), who pushed the Jaguars’ losing streak to 20 games in a 37-19 win. WynnBET and several other books were deep in the hole on Green Bay (-3) but got bailed out when that game went to overtime and the Packers (-3) settled for the push in a 25-22 win over Cincinnati.
Dollars & Sense: Week 5 Betting Insight
- ALLEN MAKES MVP MOVE: NFL MVP markets were shuffled after Allen and the Bills won. The Buffalo QB is now the betting favorite at +400 at DraftKings . Allen was +1200 before the season began. Mahomes II saw his price tumble on the same site. Once +450, he’s now +2000. Meanwhile at FanDuel, Allen leapt from +600 to +450 before and after Sunday play. Mahomes slid to +2000 from +800. Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady held at +900 and +800. Chargers QB Justin Herbert edged up to +600 from +900.
- BEST COVERS FOR YOUR MONEY: The Houston Texans and Lions both covered again in Week 5 despite combining for just one outright victory in 10 games this season. The Texans were getting 6.5 points at home against the Patriots, even though both teams had the same record (1-3) outright before the game. New England trailed 22-6 before winning 25-22 on a last-second field goal. The Lions were double-digit underdogs for the fourth time this season and scored an easy cover in the near upset. The teams are now 6-4 ATS combined.
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Week 5 Rookie Report
Six rookie quarterbacks started in Week 5. Two of the six covered outright and won – in part because two rookies faced off in Houston. Justin Fields of the Bears (+5) won outright in a 20-9 upset of the Raiders. Chicago was a profitable +210 on the moneyline. Davis Millis covered for the Texans (+6.5) in their loss to New England and Mac Jones. Zach Wilson and the Jets (-4) crashed in London and failed to cover in a 27-20 loss to Atlanta. Finally, Trey Lance may have finally wrested the starring job from the “man this guy is always hurt” Jimmy Garoppolo in San Francisco. But the 49ers (-5.5) were unable to stop Arizona.
Here’s our Week 5 rookie breakdown:
|JAX||Trevor Lawrence||23/33||273||1||1||JAX +5||37-19, TEN|
|NE||Mac Jones||23/30||231||1||1||NE -6.5||25-22, NE|
|HOU||Davis Mills||21/29||312||3||0||HOU +6.5||25-22, NE|
|NYJ||Zach Wilson||19/32||192||0||1||NYJ +4||27-20, ATL|
|CHI||Justin Fields||12/20||111||1||0||CHI +5||20-9, CHI|
|SF||Trey Lance||192/29||157||0||1||SF +5.5||17-10, ARI|
Mills became the sixth rookie QB to play in 2021 after Texans QB Tyrod Taylor was hurt in Week 2. Fields was pressed into service for the Bears after Andy Dalton suffered a knee injury.
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Major Week 5 Wagers
There were Big Bets aplenty in Week 5. Here are some notable net wins and losses listed by wager and odds:
- Win $83K: Bills +3 (-120) Caesars Sportsbook
- Win $100K: Bucs ML over Dolphins (-600) Caesars Sportsbook
- Win $100K: Bucs ML over Dolphins (-550) Caesars Sportsbook
- Win $454,545.54: Eagles +3.5 (-110) over Panthers Caesars Sportsbook
- Loss $500K: Vikings -7 over Lions (-110) Caesars Sportsbook
- Loss $500K: Broncos -1 over Steelers (-110) Caesars Sportsbook
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Plays Of The Day
One bettor at FanDuel rode four chalk horses to a big payday.
Let’s hope this bettor at FanDuel cashed out before kickoff Sunday night.
Monday Night Preview: Ravens at Colts
The Baltimore Ravens are 7-point favorites over the host Indianapolis Colts Monday night. The line has nudged just a half-point toward the Colts since it opened. The Ravens are at -330 on the moneyline, meaning a $330 wager would return $100 in profit. Conversely, the underdog Colts are +260 (a $100 win means $260 in profit). That moneyline is setting up a nice two-way play for the books, who need to limit their exposure after Sunday’s losses.
The total is 47. It opened at 49.5 after Week 4 play.
Overall, public sentiment is backing the Ravens on the spread and moneyline. The numbers range from 87%/85% respectively at DraftKings, to 65%/64% at FanDuel.
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(All odds and handle information is accurate as of time of publication.)