NFL Week 6 Betting Recap: A ‘Brutal Sunday’ For The Books
Bill Speros | 11 mins
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The NFL betting public scored a decisive knockout in Week 6, thanks in part to the Dallas Cowboys running their record to 6-0 against the spread.
Don’t be surprised if the head of your favorite wagering emporium hits you up for a short-term loan today. Or at the very least, plan on splitting the tab at lunch. Their outflow became a tsunami late in the day on Sunday as the public dominated Week 6 at nearly every sports betting site. Heavily backed favorites covered from Foxboro to MetLife Stadium to Progressive Field and multiple points south and west, delivering huge financial windfalls for both single-game and parlay bettors.
Favorites are 8-5 in the 13 games played thus far in Week 6. And those favorites have nearly pulled even on the season, helping the public replenish its budget. After 93 games in the 2021 NFL season (there were four teams on the bye this week), underdogs are now 50-43 (.537) ATS, after holding nearly a 2-1 edge three weeks ago.
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And what about them Cowboys? Among the monster loses for sportsbooks and betting sites was a thrilling 35-29 overtime victory by America’s Team, (-3, -165, O/U 50 at DraftKings) ➜ over America’s other team at Gillette Stadium. Dallas bettors from sea to shining sea saw their ’Boys remain the lone unbeaten NFL team ATS this season. The Patriots, meanwhile, fell to 2-4 ATS and overall. They are now 0-4 at home this season.
At DraftKings ➜, Dallas carried 81% of its spread liability and 92% of its moneyline liability on Dallas over New England. The numbers at FanDuel were a bit easier on the book. There 72% of the spread handle and 69% of the moneyline handle rode with Dak Prescott & His Posse.
The game carried the biggest liability of the day at WynnBET, where 96.3% of the spread handle and 87.9% of the moneyline handle backed Dallas.
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Packers, Chiefs, Rams, Cardinals Enrich Masses
Love this 😂 @AaronRodgers12 owns the Bears pic.twitter.com/p1F6ommNNI— Matt Ramage (@mattramage) October 17, 2021
"A brutal NFL Sunday for the book, the worst of the season. The day was salvaged partly by the Steelers failing to cover in the night game, though it wasn't much respite from the relentless beating taken in the afternoon. The Rams, Packers, Chiefs, Vikings, Cowboys, Bengals, Colts . . . (the list goes on) . . . all covering as favorites were dreadful results for the book. Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears, and yesterday the public owned PointsBet," said PointsBet Director of Trading Jay Croucher.
The tale of most books was mirrored at WynnBET. That book saw the most action – and won – as the Ravens (-3, -125) routed the Chargers 34-6 in Baltimore. But that was given back – with significant interest – as the Chiefs (-7), LA Rams (-8), Packers (-6) and Cardinals (+3.5) scored decisive wins on the road.
Aaron Rodgers reasserted his dominance of the Bears in a 24-14 win at Soldier Field. A-Rod is 20-7 ATS against Chicago and 22-5 straight-up in his career.
The second-highest liability at WynnBET was on the Kansas City Chiefs, who easily covered a 7-point line in a 31-13 win at Washington.
The Chiefs covered ATS for only the fourth time in their past 17 games.
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The Rams (-7, -400) chewed up 83% of the spread handle and 96% of the moneyline cash at DraftKings. They bludgeoned Big Blue in the Meadowlands 38-11 in a game whose total floated between 48.5 and 49.
“A rough day for likely every book on Earth,” WynnBET Senior Trading Manager Alan Berg told Bookies.com Sunday night. “Eight favorites (covered) and the underdog being the only team that is undefeated.”
That undefeated team is the 6-0 Arizona Cardinals. The remaining members of the 1972 Miami Dolphins had to keep their champagne on ice for one more week as the Cardinals (+3, +145 at WynnBET) buried Baker Mayfield and the host Browns 37-14. The Cardinals carried 84.5% of the moneyline liability at the site. Arizona sports betting fans of legal age continue to profit backing their home team.
The Cowboys, Cardinals and Packers are now combined 16-2 ATS this season after further enriching the bettors who supported them on Sunday.
One book that emerged financially unscathed amid the week’s carnage was the Borgata AC.
It saw a significant amount of big-money plays that faded public sentiment.
“We actually had a very good day. We were in the position in the early slate to need a number of favorites (Chiefs, Packers, Rams) and had big decisions on all of them. Ticket count certainly favored the favorites, but a lot of bigger money came in on the dogs,” Borgata Director of Race and Sports Book Thomas Borgata told Bookies.com.
The book also scored a win when a Geno Smith-led Seahawks (+5.5) snagged a backdoor cover in a 23-20 OT loss at Pittsburgh. The total in that game was 42.5.
Dollars & Sense: Week 6 Betting Insight
- DAK MAKES MVP MOVE: Prescott pulled into a three-way tie atop NFL MVP markets with Josh Allen and Kyler Murray. Each QB is +400 at FanDuel ➜. Meanwhile, Allen remains No. 1 at +450 at DraftKings ➜ ahead of his game against the Titans Monday night. Prescott moved into the No. 2 spot there at +500, tied with Murray.
- SHOES UP: The Indianapolis Colts crushed their 11.5-point line in beating the Houston Texans at home 31-3. While Indy is 2-4 overall, the team would be just one game behind Tennessee if the Titans fall to the Bills Monday night. And more importantly for bettors in Indiana, the Colts are 4-2 ATS, tied for the fourth-best record in the NFL. This week, the Colts are getting 5 points against the 49ers in San Francisco. The 49ers are coming off a bye.
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Week 6 Rookie Report
Four rookie quarterbacks started in Week 6. Trevor Lawrence helped the underdog Jaguars (+1.5, +100) end their 20-game losing streak with a 23-20 OT win over the Dolphins in London. Mac Jones, Justin Fields and Davis Mills all failed to cover and lost.
Here’s our Week 6 rookie breakdown:
|JAX||Lawrence||25/41||319||1||0||JAX +1.5||23-20, JAX|
|NE||Jones||15/21||229||2||1||NE +3.5||35-29, DAL|
|HOU||Mills||29/43||243||0||2||HOU +11.5||31-3, IND|
|CHI||Fields||16/27||174||1||1||CHI +5.5||24-14, GB|
Mills became the sixth rookie QB to play in 2021 after Texans QB Tyrod Taylor was hurt in Week 2. Fields was pressed into service for the Bears after Andy Dalton suffered a knee injury. Zach Wilson of the Jets and Trey Lance of the 49ers were both on byes in Week 6.
Major Week 6 Wagers
There were Big Bets aplenty in Week 6. Here are some notable net wins listed by wager and odds :
- Win $500K: Vikings ML (+100) Caesars Sportsbook
- Win $454,545.45: Bengals -3 over Lions (-110) Caesars Sportsbook
- Win $454,545.45: Colts -9.5 over Texans (-110) Caesars Sportsbook
- Win $454,545.54: Eagles +3.5 (-110) over Panthers Caesars Sportsbook
- Win $454,545.54: Cardinals +3.5 over Browns (-110) Caesars Sportsbook
- Win $384,615.38: Cardinals +3.5 over Browns (-130) Caesars Sportsbook
- Win $136,076.25: Cardinals ML over Browns (+140) Caesars Sportsbook
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Plays Of The Day
One customer in Arizona placed a $50,000 parlay on the Ravens ML + WFT (+7.5) to cover.— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) October 17, 2021
Potential payout: $134,770 💰 pic.twitter.com/MtPL69qV0U
WOW..— BSS Shareable Betslips (@50burger) October 18, 2021
Steelers -5 to close out a 6,818/1 parlay https://t.co/S9LeRAaF2h
Monday Night Preview: Bills at Titans
Check out the latest Bills vs. Titans odds
The AFC East Bills (4-1/4-1) and AFC South Titans (3-2/2-3) sit atop their respective divisions. Allen leads the high-flying Bills into Music City. Titans RB Derrick Henry leads the NFL in rushing yards (640), rushing TDs (7) and yards from scrimmage (755).
The Bills counter with an offense that leads the NFL with 34.4 PPG and a defense that has allowed just 12.8 PPG. Both were tops in the league heading into Week 6. Buffalo also led the NFL with 15 takeaways and an overall turnover margin of plus-11.
In-game bettors should take note of this interesting streak: Buffalo has won 14 straight games outright when leading at halftime.
Early bettors backed the Bills by substantial margins. DraftKings is carrying 90% of its spread handle (-6) and 80% of its moneyline handle on the -250 favorites. The line has shrunk from Buffalo -6.5 and the total is up to 53.5 points, after opening at 52.5.
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(All odds and handle information is accurate as of time of publication.)