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San Francisco 49ers At Green Bay Packers Picks & NFL Divisional Round Predictions

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 8 mins

San Francisco 49ers At Green Bay Packers Picks & NFL Divisional Round Predictions

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The NFL’s hottest team takes on the NFL’s best team – by record, anyway – when Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers head to Lambeau Field to face Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in an NFC Divisional Round showdown on Saturday night. The Niners have won eight of 10 games, including a huge victory at Dallas in the Wild Card round. The Packers beat the 49ers 30-28 in San Francisco on a last-minute rally by Rodgers, but that was back in Week 3.

Betting sites and betting apps have Green Bay as a 5.5-point favorite, with an Over/Under of 47.5 points in the latest 49ers vs. Packers odds. When it comes to NFL spreads in this rubber match, the line dropped to -4.5 when announced last Sunday but went back to its original line by Monday.

Take a look at Packers vs 49ers odds, injury report, betting lines and more.

49ers vs Packers Key Matchups

Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Packers DBs: Green Bay has allowed 30 passing TDs this season, the seventh most, but its 18 INTs rank as the sixth most. The Niners are 7-0 when Garoppolo doesn’t throw a pick, and 3-6 when he does.

Aaron Rodgers vs. 49ers DBs: San Francisco ranks seventh in pass yards allowed. Rodgers has 20 TDs and two INTs in nine regular season games vs. San Fran (and a 6-3 record), but a modest 5/3 ratio in three playoff matchups, all Niners victories.

Deebo Samuel vs. Everyone: The Niners have won eight of nine since adding Samuel to the backfield. He has 10 TDs in that span.

5 Key 49ers vs. Packers Stats

1: The yards allowed difference in RB rushing yards between the Packers (1,302) and 49ers (1,303), ranking sixth and seventh best in the NFL.

9: Interceptions by the 49ers defense, the fourth-fewest in the league. Aaron Rodgers has thrown two INTs in his last 15 games.

100.5: The QB Rating in 21 playoff games for Aaron Rodgers. His team is just 12-9 despite Rodgers’ 45/13 TD/INT ratio. Jimmy Garoppolo is 3-1 as a starter in the playoffs, despite a 2/4 TD/INT ratio and 73.3 QB Rating.

120: Yards per game that WR Davante Adams has had in four career games vs. the 49ers. Three of those games, he had at least 132 yards, and he has five TDs, at least one in each game.

144.8: Rush yards per game the last five weeks by the 49ers. Only one of the last 10 Packers opponents have rushed for 144 or more yards, and only three have hit 100 yards.

RELATED: NFL Divisional Round Picks & Predictions For Every Game

49ers vs. Packers Weather Forecast

Lambeau Field will be frigid on Saturday night, but it could be worse. Highs for the day in Green Bay are in the 20s, though overnight the lows will hit single digits. Expect game-time temps in the teens, with light and picturesque flurries possible.

49ers vs Packers Player Props

Aaron Rodgers, Under 265.5 Pass Yards

Odds: -114 at FanDuel

The Niners have allowed just one of the last 10 opponents to pass for over this total. Take away a Week 1 dud, and the Packers are 7-0 in games Rodgers has finished and been under 268 yards, with 22 TDs and zero INTs.

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Aaron Jones, Over 48.5 Rush Yards

Odds: -115 at BetMGM

Jones has at least 48 yards in all but one game he’s been given at least eight carries – which is 11 out of 15 times. That includes the 19-82 effort vs. the Niners earlier this year.

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George Kittle, Under 48.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -110 at DraftKings

Kittle has crushed the Packers in two regular-season matchups the last three seasons, hauling in at least six receptions and 92 yards in each. But the Pack shut him down last year in the playoffs (one catch) and he’s fallen by the wayside in this run-first offense, with under 30 yards each of the past four weeks.

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49ers vs. Packers Moneyline

The Packers are -235 favorites on the moneyline, meaning it would take a $235 wager to win $100 in profit. Conversely, underdog San Francisco is +190 (a $100 bet means $190 in profit). Most sportsbooks are showing similar lines.

The Packers are the only NFL team to not lose a single home game, winning by an average of 13.8 ppg with only one victory by under a TD. The Niners are playing as well as anyone, but they’re not the same team on the road. They play close but getting the win has been semi-elusive, dropping two of their last four with both wins coming in overtime. There is value on the Niners’ side, but we’re not fading the Packers on a January night at Lambeau.

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49ers vs. Packers Point Spread

The Packers opened at -5.5, with the line dipping all the way to -4 before bouncing back to the original spread. That’s because we all saw what the Niners did at Dallas, and what the Niners have won the last two months.

To be sure, San Fran is playing well and ranks No. 7 vs. both the run and the pass defensively, and is No. 7 in rushing as well. The Packers have flaws, namely their run defense. But the QB comparison slows us from jumping on the Niners. The Packers are 7-1 ATS at home this season, the Niners have been just as great overall vs. the spread. From this vantage point, the line is exactly where it should be. Those looking for Saturday night NFL betting action should look at the total or on props before the spread.

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49ers vs. Packers Totals

The Over/Under for the Saturday night showdown is 47.5. When these teams played in Week 3 in San Fran, 58 points were scored. That was before the Niners really figured out their offense. But scoring hasn’t exploded. Their last four games, the Niners have averaged 22.5 ppg and only once has the total eclipsed 40 points.

The Packers’ offense is a machine, scoring 30-plus in six of the last seven games. The defense has allowed 30-plus in four of seven, however. Five of those seven games eclipsed 60 and none were under 46. San Francisco’s run game matches up well with Green Bay’s mediocre run defense, and Rodgers matches up against any defense. The Over is worth adding to your NFL picks lineup for the Divisional Round.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.