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San Francisco 49ers Next QB Odds: Will Trey Lance Be The Guy Week 1?

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 5 mins

San Francisco 49ers Next QB Odds: Will Trey Lance Be The Guy Week 1?

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The San Francisco 49ers opened the 2022 season with Trey Lance as starting quarterback. He suffered a broken leg and ligament damage in Week 2 and was lost for the season. 

Veteran Jimmy Garoppolo took over. He went 7-3 before a broken foot ended his year in Week 13. 

Emergency QB Brock Purdy – the final selection in the 2022 NFL Draft – became the man under center after that. He guided San Fran to eight straight victories until he was knocked out of the NFC Championship Game on the opening drive, as the Eagles advanced to Super Bowl 57

Lance is expected to be ready for offseason training in spring. Purdy’s elbow injury shelves him for an estimated six months, a timeline that has him ready for around the start of training camp. Meanwhile, Garoppolo is a free agent. 

The Niners have some decisions to make as to who will be under center for Week 1 of the 2023 NFL betting season. Do they go with one of their guys on the roster or look elsewhere? 

Bookies.com oddsmaker Adam Thompson has used his resources of NFL contacts developed over 20 years covering the sport to create his hypothetical NFL odds on the 2023 Week 1 starter for the 49ers. 

San Francisco 49ers Week 1 Starting QB Odds

PlayerOddsImplied Probability
Trey Lance+16038.5%
Brock Purdy+17536.4%
Ryan Tannehill+45018.2%
Derek Carr+50016.7%
Aaron Rodgers+20004.8%
Jimmy Garoppolo+20004.8%
The Field+18005.3%

Odds are projected and do not reflect odds that may be available at legal betting sites or on betting apps.

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Trey Lance & Brock Purdy On Top

When it comes to Trey Lance vs. Brock Purdy, there is no question as to who has been the better pro. Lance has three full games in two seasons, going 1-2 with five TDs and three INTs. Purdy didn’t lose a game he finished and emerged as a Rookie of the Year candidate despite playing less than half the season. 

But the 49ers didn’t make Lance the No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, only to give the ball to Mr. Irrelevant 2022. Purdy’s injury that keeps him out of OTAs gives Lance a headstart to prove he’s worthy of the gig. 


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Purdy has proven worthy. That is, if the elbow on his throwing arm fully heals in time for July camp. 

Bringing someone from the outside remains a possibility. San Francisco is a team built to win right now. Handing the keys to an unproven, if potential-laden, Lance might not be the move Shanahan wants to make with a quickly-closing window of opportunity. 

Four More in the Running

With the heir apparent in place, Jimmy Garoppolo returned to the Niners in 2022 on a major pay cut. When called upon, he turned the Niners into title contenders before his own season-ending injury. Now an unrestricted free agent, 49ers brass has already publicly stated they don't see a scenario he returns. A veteran with a career 40-17 record, Garoppolo will command too much money for the Niners to compete. 

Cali native and former Oakland/Fresno State QB Derek Carr is looking for a new home, and the Raiders are looking for a trade partner. If San Francisco decides it needs a veteran with a strong arm, Carr might be the best available option. 

That is, unless the team decides Ryan Tannehill is the answer. The Titans just hired former Niners pro personnel director Ran Carthon to be their new general manager. 

Cap space concessions will need to be made for Carr or Tannehill to be added, though it's not inconceivable. 

Carthon drafted Lance, and Trey posted a cryptic message on social media that has people speculating he wouldn’t mind following Carthon to Nashville. Tannehill was 30-13 as a starter for the Titans in three seasons before a blasé 6-6 mark and season-ending injury marred his 2022 year.

Aaron Rodgers is more of a pipe dream for a team already possessing a Super Bowl-caliber defense and skill-position group. Rodgers’ exorbitant salary – he’ll make more in one-quarter of each game than Purdy will make in all of 2023 – prices him out of the Bay Area for the moment. 

But Rodgers has mentioned a willingness to restructure his deal to make something work. It’s still unlikely Green Bay ships Rodgers to its biggest postseason rival. 

The Field has several free-agent veterans available on the short term, including former Seahawks QB Geno Smith, who threw for 253 yards and two TDs in a playoff matchup vs. the 49ers on Jan. 14; and Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, who each got another chance with the Rams and Panthers, respectively, and were OK. 

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.