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Super Bowl 58 MVP Odds, Picks & Analysis: Could Mahomes Win Back-to-Back NFL MVP?

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 6 mins

Super Bowl 58 MVP Odds, Picks & Analysis: Could Mahomes Win Back-to-Back NFL MVP?

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There are thousands of ways to attack the Super Bowl from a betting standpoint. But before the showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers kicks off on Feb. 11 from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, one of the most popular bets is the Super Bowl Most Valuable Player Award.

From Patrick Mahomes to Brock Purdy, Travis Kelce to Christian McCaffrey, from offense to defense, the best online sportsbooks offer dozens of players from both teams to choose from in Super Bowl MVP futures odds.

If you back a player now on NFL betting markets, you could end up gaining value. After all, the NFL odds you see today might be better than the ones posted closer to kickoff.

Bookies.com NFL veteran handicapper Adam Thompson breaks down the current field.

Super Bowl 58 MVP Odds

PlayerOdds
Patrick Mahomes+125
Brock Purdy+225
Christian McCaffrey+475
Travis Kelce+1200
Deebo Samuel+2000
Isiah Pacheco+2800
Rashee Rice+5000
Brandon Aiyuk+6000
George Kittle+6000
Nick Bosa+7500
George Karlaftis+10000
Chris Jones+10000

Odds via BetMGM and current as of publication. Check out our  BetMGM Review.

Who Wins Super Bowl MVPs?

First off, it helps to win the game. Only once in the 57-year history of the Super Bowl has the Super Bowl MVP not also hoisted the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the night. The lone exception: Cowboys LB Chuck Howley earned it in Super Bowl V with two interceptions and a forced fumble in Dallas’ loss to the Baltimore Colts. 

There’s also only been one tie, and that anomaly also involved the Cowboys. QB Randy White and DE Harvey Martin shared the honors in Super Bowl 12 in a 27-10 win over the Denver Broncos. 

In other words, it will very likely be a single player from the winning team. There is no prohibitive frontrunner for Super Bowl 58, with the 49ers (-125 moneyline odds) slightly favored over the Chiefs (+105).

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QBs Win Super Bowl MVP, But Not All Of Them

Not surprisingly, quarterbacks win a majority of Super Bowl MVP awards. But it’s not a monopoly. Of the 57 Super Bowl MVP awards (including the co-winners), QBs have won 32 times. That’s only 56.1% of the time, which means we need to look beyond those taking snaps. 

Wide receivers are next on the list, winning eight Super Bowl MVPs including two years ago when Cooper Kupp took the award in the Rams’ win over the Bengals. Running backs have won it seven times, while 10 defensive players have taken it, most notably linebackers (4). Packers kick returner Desmond Howard won it as well, the lone special teamer. 

Who Votes For The Super Bowl MVP?

Just 16 media members make up 80% of the Super Bowl MVP vote. The other 20% comes from fans watching the game. If you’ve ever seen the results of a Pro Bowl or All-Star Game vote in any sport, you know that adds a touch of popularity to the equation.

Super Bowl MVP Pick

Despite being the quarterback on the favored team, Brock Purdy (+225) isn’t even the favorite to win the Super Bowl MVP. Patrick Mahomes, who won the award last year after guiding the Chiefs to a 38-35 win over the Eagles, is favored to repeat. 

That’s because Christian McCaffrey is also on the board. He’s at +475; no other non-QB has odds lower than +1200 (Travis Kelce). McCaffrey led the NFL in rushing yards was No. 2 in touchdowns, and has four TDs in two postseason games. 

But we’re going with Purdy. First, we’re on the 49ers winning the game. Second, we expect many of McCaffrey’s yards against a tough Chiefs front to come in the passing game – yards (and perhaps TDs) that also go to Purdy. 

KC’s struggles in the red zone against opposing receivers? That adds more TD potential for the QB. If the Niners are going to win the Super Bowl, Purdy must perform. 

Getting at QB at Super Bowl MVP odds above +200 doesn’t come around often (last year, Jalen Hurts was +120, Mahomes +125). We’ll take them. 

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Super Bowl MVP Long Shots To Back

We’re not going to call McCaffrey a longshot, even though it’s been over 20 years since a running back won the award. But speaking of that stat, that opens up the possibility a pass-catcher can take the crown, especially one that can generate points. 

Niners WR Deebo Samuel has just one TD over the last five games, and teammate Brandon Aiyuk has only two over the last seven games. But Deebo can get the ball in a myriad of ways. He rushed three times for 53 yards when these teams met in the Super Bowl four years ago, and has five rushing TDs. His production has been down of late, but this is the Big Game. 

No team has allowed more rushing yards to WRs this season than the Chiefs. Samuel could run for a TD, and receiver another, thus taking points away from Purdy and McCaffrey. At +2000, Samuel for MVP is a longshot that could hit

For KC, Travis Kelce is Mahomes’ man, especially in the playoffs. In three games this postseason, he has 23 receptions for 262 yards and three TDs. Only once in his last nine playoff games has he failed to get into the end zone. Still, it’s tough to imagine Kelce getting the nod over Mahomes. 

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.