Which Super Bowl 54 Player Prop Bets Should You Be Backing?

By Adam Thompson Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EDT

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Super Bowl player prop bets have become nearly as popular as bets on the game itself. This year is no exception, and the list of possible wagers to throw on the showdown between Patrick Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs and Jimmy Garoppolo’s San Francisco 49ers is daunting.

Indeed, there are seemingly limitless ways to make Super Bowl betting more interesting in the player prop-bet department.

After sorting through all the options, these are my seven best. You also can check out my ATS, O/U and moneyline Super Bowl picks here.

Top Super Bowl 54 Player Prop Bets

All odds current as of publication but subject to change. Check out and compare up-to-the-minute Super Bowl 54 odds here.

MVP: George Kittle

The 49ers star TE had 28 more receptions than anyone else on the team, with 36 more targets and more than 700 more yards. When it comes to the biggest game of Garoppolo’s career, the QB is going to look for his bell cow early and often. And he should have little problem finding him: The Chiefs rank 30th in receptions to tight ends and 28th in yards allowed.

RELATED: 7 Best Super Bowl 54 Team Prop Bets to Back

MVP: Tyreek Hill

There’s no tougher 1-on-1 cover than the speedster Hill. Mahomes is the odds-on favorite for MVP, but there’s not a lot of value in a near even-money choice. Hill has the big-play potential to break out and pile up stats as a receiver or runner.

Most Passing Yards – Mahomes

Regardless of which side you’re on, it’s hard to project a four-quarter game where Garoppolo out-passes Mahomes, simply based on opportunity. Just seven times Garoppolo had 30 or more attempts. Mahomes did in 13 of his 16 games.

Damien Williams 53.5 Yards Rushing – Under

Williams hasn’t generated a ton of production on the ground in the postseason, garnering 92 total yards on 29 carries (3.2 ypc). Now he faces a Niners defense that shut down Aaron Jones and Dalvin Cook to the tune of 74 yards combined this postseason, and has allowed just 44.6 ypg on the ground the last five games.

Williams has become the lead back for KC, but veteran LeSean McCoy may get his share of touches on the big stage and we know the Chiefs are going to put the ball, and keep the ball, in Mahomes’ hands.

RELATED: Check out all of our NFL experts' Super Bowl game picks

Patrick Mahomes 304.5 Yards Passing – Under

It may seem like Mahomes passes for 350 yards every weekend, but in reality he’s eclipsed the 305-yard mark just three of the past 11 weeks and two of the last eight. In his seven games against top-10 pass defenses, he eclipsed 305 yards twice. The 49ers, meanwhile, have allowed more than 300 yards only twice in 18 games and rank No. 1 in the NFL in fewest yards allowed through the air.

Emmanuel Sanders 40.5 Yards – Over

Sanders has fallen out of favor lately, managing just 10 receptions over the last five games. But he’s still playing in more than 91% of the 49ers’ offensive plays and is averaging nearly 14 yards per reception.

Three catches at that length and he’s hit the target. He’ll be on the field, and if the Chiefs put additional resources in slowing the run as expected, he should find open spots with a favorable 1-on-1 matchup against CB Charvarius Ward looming.

George Kittle 5.5 Receptions – Over

Kittle is Garoppolo’s go-to target, and that’s not going to change in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs defense has been susceptible to opposing TEs but has been good at slowing opposing WRs. He’s had at least six catches in more than half of San Francisco’s games. Kittle may be corralled in terms of yardage, but six receptions seems very doable.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson

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Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.