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2023 US Open Men's Final: Best Bets & Predictions: Djokovic vs. Medvedev

Isla Knightley for Bookies.com

Isla Knightley  | 5 mins

2023 US Open Men's Final: Best Bets & Predictions: Djokovic vs. Medvedev

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The US Open men’s final is set and on Sunday a champion will be crowned when Daniil Medvedev and Novak Djokovic go head-to-head in Arthur Ashe Stadium.

This isn’t the Flushing Meadows finale that most had RSVP’d to when the draw first came out. It was supposed to be Alcaraz vs Djokovic by everyone’s reckoning, including the bookmakers who set tennis odds. But Medvedev vs. Djokovic should be a right belter nevertheless. What’s more, we’ve seen it before in New York. 

In 2021, Medvedev stunned Djokovic to earn his first grand slam championship title. Now, two years on, as they reprise their rivalry in New York, the stakes couldn’t be any higher: Medvedev is looking to drop the moniker of one-hit wonder while Djokovic is seeking to claim his 24th major title, which would align him with the great Margaret Court in the history book. 

So, will Medvedev deny Djokovic and deliver a stunning upset or will the Serbian write his name in the history books by winning a 24th grand slam title and also becoming the oldest man to win the US Open title in the Open Era?

So without further ado, let’s take a deep dive into the US Open Men’s Final and spot the best bets with our tennis picks, complete with tennis odds from the most trusted betting apps.

US Open Men’s Final Best Bets

Novak Djokovic vs. Daniil MedvedevMedvedev to win+210 at FanDuel

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ATP Head-to-Head Series: Djokovic vs. Medvedev

Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 9-5, which includes an 8-4 record on hard courts.However, they’re level 1-1 at the majors—with each, ironically, winning the title match—and they are level 1-1 on the 2023 season, with Medvedev winning their most recent encounter in the semifinals of Dubai, 6-4, 6-4.

In the grand slams, Djokovic won their first-ever meeting, defeating Medvedev 7-5, 6-2, 6-2 in the 2021 Australian Open final. Later that year, the pair would meet in the Flushing Meadows title match. This time, it was the Russian that took the stunning 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 victory to win his maiden major title.

Novak Djokovic vs. Daniil Medvedev Best Bet

Djokovic breezed into the final of the US Open with a straightforward win over American upstart Ben Shelton on Friday afternoon, 6-3, 6 -2, 7-6 (4), and he is now one win away from claiming a historic 24th grand slam title. 

Standing in the 36-year-old Serbian’s way isn’t Carlos Alcaraz, the defending champion and fan favorite that most punters anticipated would challenge Djokovic. Instead, it’s his semifinal slayer – Medvedev, who played lights out to overcome the Spanish prodigy on Friday night, 7-6 (3), 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 and etch his name on the hottest ticket in town. 

Before the match, Medvedev said he needed to play 11-out-of-10 tennis in order to have a chance against Alcaraz. He needed to be better than himself. He was.

In the post-match interview on court, he gave himself (quite rightly) a mark of 12-out-of-10 for his performance. The Russian was virtually impenetrable on the baseline, returning  everything Alcaraz sent his way with interest and lasering winners on the lines from all sides of the court. 

Medvedev will need to be just as good if not better to overcome Djokovic. Nobody knows better what it takes to win a grand slam than the Serbian. It’s no accident that he has claimed 23 of the game’s most coveted titles and is still looking to add to his incredible haul. 

Thus, the Serbian, who will reclaim the No. 1 ranking regardless of the outcome of Sunday’s final, goes into this Flushing Meadows title match as the considerable favorite, priced between -250 to -265 depending on your preferred trusted sportsbook. It’s going to take a brave bettor to bet against Djokovic here. Time and time again, he comes out on top and proving his naysayers wrong.

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But Medvedev entered the US Open as the third-best bet to win the title and he reminded the world that he was a legitimate contender on his beloved hard courts. For a while, the Russian was considered to be second only to Djokovic on this surface, a fact that the pair underscore with their competitive head-to-head and by already splitting two major finals (2021).

Djokovic comes into the US Open final without being properly tested, save for his five-set win over compatriot Laslo Djere in the third round—which was a weird match to be fair. Medvedev, by far, has had the tougher path into Sunday’s decider, with three top seeds, including the defending champion and current No. 1 Alcaraz, in his last three matches. 

Having had his resolve tested by top players should give him an advantage over Djokovic, who’s faced much lesser opposition over his campaign. In fact, No, 9 Taylor Fritz is the only player inside the Top 30 that Djokovic has faced so far. Talk about a sweet draw.

For that reason, it would be disingenuous to discredit Medvedev’s chances here and with tempting odds that range from +190 to +215, he’s definitely worth considering for your tennis picks. He won’t be intimidated by the occasion or his opponent. After all, he’s one of the few players that has not only been able to go toe-to-toe with Djokovic, but also beaten him in a major final. That’s no mean feat.

Everyone and their grandmother will be backing Djokovic to win and, arguably, he is the smart bet given his undeniable track record of success. 

Whichever way you are slicing your picks, though, know that Medvedev holds value – if not for the upset then at least to take a set (or two) off the Serbian. The final to go four sets irrespective of the winner is priced at +160 and a five-setter is priced at +225 with bet365.

Best US Open Bet: Medvedev to win +210 at FanDuel

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About the Author

Isla Knightley for Bookies.com
Isla Knightley
Isla, a sports journalist and betting expert, covers several sports, including the NFL, as well politics. She joined Bookies.com in 2021 after contributing to other betting sites.