There might not be a more talented fighter in boxing than Baltimore’s Gervonta Davis. The 24-year-old makes a homecoming title defense of his WBA junior lightweight belt against hard-hitting challenger Ricardo Nunez on Saturday night at the Royal Farms Arena in Baltimore, Md.

Davis is the huge betting favorite at -3335 per 888Sport, and for good reason. With an implied win probability of over 97%, Davis is basically participating in a showcase bout, which means he’s been given an opponent in Nunez who isn’t really there to do anything but make Davis look good.

To that end, backing Davis by KO, TKO or DQ is -1115, which means boxing betting fans who plan on getting any value from backing Davis, you have to be a little more selective. You should be looking to the rounds markets and other props.

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That Nunez has such a high number of knockouts shouldn’t keep you from backing Davis to win the fight, even with the odds titled so far in his favor. Davis isn’t just an undefeated titleholder looking for another win. He’s one of the most talented and feared fighters in all of boxing, one who really might be considered the best fighter in the world today if only he had gotten the opportunities to prove it.

Davis-Nunez Betting Analysis

While Nunez, 25, from Panama, has already suffered two losses at the regional level in his home country and has nothing on his resume to suggest he deserves to be in the ring with Davis except for maybe that he’s won 10 straight, he also might really be a hard enough puncher to keep Davis off him early.

The problem with that line of thinking, of course, is that knocking out a bunch of people in Panama isn’t the same thing as doing it against world-level competition. That he’s knocked out 19 of his 21 opponents is a good sign. Better yet is that one of his losses came via disqualification.

Still, Davis appears to be way more than just a mere belt holder, so stopping Nunez is a virtual lock. Davis is an incredibly fast, athletic and powerful southpaw who went 206-15 as an amateur fighter.

Betting the over on the total rounds market is +105 at 4.5 rounds. That’s some smart placement by the bookmakers because while Davis is a much better fighter than Nunez, it’s not as if he’ll be able to just walk through his opponent’s punches in just a round or two.

But punching power, even when it’s just the perception of power, has a way of keeping fighters honest. Back the over on the 4.5 rounds at +105. Davis will probably box off his back foot early in the fight to set up the knockout later.

Selecting the round or group of rounds is never easy, but there’s serious value when you can pull it off. Against Nunez, back Davis by stoppage at +168 in Rounds 4-6. Again, the first three rounds are usually when a fighter wonders how hard he might get hit back. Davis will go to work once he gets the feel for things, and he likes to get to his power punches quickly.

If you must pick a single round for a big splash win, back Davis in Round 5 at +650. That’s a big score, and Davis is an incredible knockout machine.

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