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If You Back Kambosos Over Lopez, Make This Title Fight Bet

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com

Dan Kilbridge  | 4 mins

If You Back Kambosos Over Lopez, Make This Title Fight Bet

$1,000 First Bet on Caesars

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More than six months after the bout was originally scheduled to take place, George Kambosos Jr. will finally get his lightweight title shot Saturday against Teofimo Lopez at Madison Square Garden’s Hulu Theatre in New York City.

Kambosos (19-0, 10 KOs) earned this opportunity with a split-decision win over Lee Selby in October 2020. The 28-year-old Australian has plenty of experience at the amateur and professional levels, but Lopez represents the biggest challenge of his career by far.

That’s reflected in the boxing betting odds with Lopez set as a -1000 favorite. Kambosos is a +600 underdog in NYC and hasn’t been given much respect from oddsmakers.

This is completely new territory for both fighters. Lopez was a +350 underdog at betting sites when he defeated Vasiliy Lomachenko via unanimous decision to retain the IBF title and claim the WBA, WBO and The Ring lightweight belts. Kambosos closed as a slight favorite ahead of his last fight against Selby, so the favorite-underdog roles are reversed heading into this one.

While the odds for Lopez vs Kambosos are heavily in the champ's favor, Kambosos is no spring chicken and owns a perfect professional resume. Those inclined to bet on Kambosos might not want to take him at +600 on the moneyline at BetMGM. But there is a longshot prop bet we like for Kambosos backers that delivers more value than the moneyline at sportsbooks.

For fans headed to the fight Saturday, it looks like online New York sports betting won’t be available in time, but the wait in the Empire State will soon be over.

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Kambosos Best Bet Vs. Teofimo Lopez

Kambosos Jr. To Win In Rounds 4-6

The Odds: +3500 at DraftKings

If you’re going to bet on a longshot like Kambosos, you might as well go way long on the prop betting with the most likely method of victory at betting sites.

First off, we think it will be very tough for Kambosos to win a decision. He wasn’t overly dominant in his last two fights, both of which went to the cards and favored Kambosos in split decisions. But he does have power with finishes in four of his last seven fights, including a sixth-round TKO victory over Richard Pena in June of 2019.

WIN SIGNED BOXING GLOVES: Check Out Our Contest Page To Win Gloves Autographed By Both Kambosos and Lopez

Lopez has the speed and power advantage and will likely look for an early finish. It’s been a year since he’s entered the ring, and he does so under far different circumstances – he’s now the champion and unanimous No. 1 lightweight in the world. His name has gotten much bigger and with that comes the pressure to perform, especially in your first title defense.

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Why This Prop Makes Sense

Oddsmakers don’t expect the fight to go the distance, with the Over/Under set at 7.5 on Betting apps. The odds are +250 for this fight to go the distance, and most are expecting a Lopez KO finish.

Kambosos’ best chance is to survive the early rounds and try to dirty it up from the start. Lopez will likely come out aggressive, and the Aussie needs to stay on his feet by any means necessary in the early-going. His best chance to catch Lopez is probably in the middle rounds, after a little fatigue has set in. Lopez could stray from his mechanics just a touch at this point if he’s really hunting the knockout.

Kambosos’ best chance at a victory will likely come in this middle rounds if he can properly counter and land one or two shots just right. It’s obviously a longshot at +3500 odds. But if you’re going to back the underdog regardless, we think the Kambosos winning in Rounds 4-6 provides the best value.

About the Author

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com
Dan Kilbridge
Handicapper Dan Kilbridge writes about college football, MLB and other sports for Bookies.com after spending three years covering Tiger Woods’ comeback and the PGA for Golfweek.