David Caraviello for Bookies.com

By David Caraviello | | 16 mins

NASCAR at Texas: Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Odds & Picks

NASCAR at Texas: Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Odds & Picks
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With just three events remaining until the championship race, this is no time for NASCAR betting fans to hunt for underdogs. A victory automatically qualifies drivers to vie for the title at the finale in Phoenix on Nov. 7. This week and next bring big, fast tri-ovals that will quickly weed out the field. If you’re hunting value at sportsbooks and betting sites, do it wisely, because this is the point in the season when the sport’s big boys decide things among themselves.

Series leader Kyle Larson fired a warning shot in that regard by prevailing last week on the Charlotte Roval – hope you grabbed him at +450 to win, as we suggested here – but he now travels to a Texas Motor Speedway where his last five starts have produced three crashes and just one single-digit finish. He’s the +340 NASCAR odds favorite in Fort Worth based on what he has done overall this season, not on a 1.5-mile layout where his average finish is close to 20th.

So it’s tempting to look a little further down the odds board on betting apps this week, but not too far down. The last nine fall Texas races have been won by just four drivers: Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson. Harvick has won three of those races and Johnson four.

At this stage, winning the title requires winning races, and all the top contenders know it. Save your fliers for the Daytona 500 in 2022.

Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Odds

DriverWinTop 3Top 10
Kyle Larson +340 -110 -800
Denny Hamlin +600 +170 -500
Kyle Busch +700 +200 -400
Chase Elliott +750 +210 -350
Martin Truex Jr. +900 +260 -320
Ryan Blaney +900 +260 -320
Joey Logano +1200 +340 -230
Kevin Harvick +1400 +440 -200

Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

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Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Expert Picks

Denny Hamlin to Win

Odds: +600 at BetMGM

As with so many things regarding Hamlin, there’s some unevenness to consider here: Many of his finishes at Texas have been great, others have ranged from mediocre to disappointing, and there’s little rhyme or reason as to when they occur. Hamlin has won at Texas three times, most recently in 2019.

But he also finished 28th and 20th in two starts prior to his ninth-place result there last fall. Still, Hamlin has enough positive results to convince anyone he knows his way around Texas, a fact bolstered by his recent overall performance. He’s finished worse than fifth just three times since July, has placed ninth or better in all of the NASCAR Playoffs races, and he’s leading lots of laps.

At this point he’s the natural foil to Larson for the title. If Hamlin doesn’t punch his ticket to the Championship 4 this Sunday, watch for him at Martinsville in two weeks.

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Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Betting Tips

They’re the two best active drivers at Texas, but both of them might give a bettor pause. Kevin Harvick has three wins, 23 top 10s and a ridiculous average finish of 10.4 in Fort Worth, but his promising playoffs ended with a crash and 33rd-place finish at the Roval, and he’s still winless this year.

Then there’s Kyle Busch, whose four Texas wins include a victory last fall, but whose playoff results have been all over the map. Busch is riding a good-race, bad-race cycle throughout this postseason, and hasn’t truly threatened to win a race since the playoff started.

A better value option might be Joey Logano, one of four playoff drivers to win at Texas. He has enjoyed a nice-if-not-spectacular postseason that ramped up recently with a third place at Talladega and a seventh at the Roval. Martin Truex Jr. has three runner-up finishes at Texas, most recently last fall, but like a lot of drivers he has scuffled through the last two races.

With Talladega and the Roval behind us, Texas begins a run of more typical tracks that will open the door for someone to earn their way to Phoenix. And things can shift dramatically: Last year at this point, Harvick and Hamlin looked in control of the title race, while eventual champion Chase Elliott was fourth.

It can all start to change at Texas, where our best bets are Hamlin to win at +600, Busch top-3 at +200, and Logano top Ford at +360.

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Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Time, Date and TV

When: Sunday, 2 p.m.

Where: Texas Motor Speedway, Fort Worth

TV: NBC

About the Author

David Caraviello for Bookies.com
David Caraviello
Veteran sports journalist David Caraviello has covered college football, college basketball, motorsports and golf, covering all three US golf majors, the Daytona 500 and SEC football.