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Teofimo Lopez vs George Kambosos Jr Picks & Betting Predictions

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com

Dan Kilbridge  | 10 mins

Teofimo Lopez vs George Kambosos Jr Picks & Betting Predictions

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One of the brightest rising stars in boxing is ready to remind everyone who rules the lightweight division.

Unified lightweight champion Teofimo Lopez will finally put his belts on the line against challenger George Kambosos Jr. Saturday night in New York City. It will be the first title defense for Lopez since he upset Vasiliy Lomachenko to retain the IBF belt and capture the WBA, WBO and The Ring lightweight titles in October of 2020.

The 24-year-old has been waiting to get back in the ring ever since, with this upcoming fight rescheduled multiple times from its original date back in May.

“I’m extremely excited,” Lopez told Bookies.com. “It’s at Madison Square Garden, Hulu Theatre in New York City. I mean, what’s bigger than that? The Mecca of boxing. Overall, it’s been a long time coming. November 27, we’re a couple of days away. I’m just so excited to get back out there and perform.”

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Lopez is a massive boxing betting favorite, with -1000 odds at sportsbooks. Kambosos has juicy +600 odds as a big underdog.

Lopez was about a +350 underdog before the Lomachenko fight, but a unanimous decision win flipped the script for the now-consensus No. 1 lightweight in the world. He’s the unquestioned favorite on betting sites, but the prop market is robust and bettors aren’t limited to the -1000 moneyline for Lopez. We’ve got our eye on another Lopez prop ahead of his title defense against Kambosos, and it is our top bet.

Unfortunately, it looks like online New York sports betting won’t be available for the fight, but that doesn’t diminish the local interest in the hometown fighter.

RELATED: Complete Guide to Lopez vs Kambosos Jr

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Teofimo Lopez Vs. George Kambosos Predictions & Best Bets

Lopez To Win By KO, TKO or DQ -250 at FanDuel ➜
Lopez To Win In Rounds 1-3 +700 at DraftKings ➜
Fight To Go The Distance – No -350 at BetMGM ➜
Kambosos To Win In Rounds 4-6 td> +3500 at DraftKings ➜

Odds current as of publication

Lopez To Win By KO, TKO or DQ

The Odds: -250 at FanDuel ➜

There’s a reason Lopez via knockout is the most likely fight outcome on betting apps. He’s the No. 5-ranked pound-for-pound fighter in the world and has every advantage on paper entering the title bout.

Lopez has ended 12 of his 16 fights early and possesses devastating power in both hands. He can shut the lights out at any moment and scored a second-round TKO over Richard Commey to capture the IBF lightweight title the last time he fought at Madison Square Garden in December 2019.

Lopez definitely brings a little extra at the Garden – the Brooklyn native scored KO finishes in all six previous fights in this building, five of them before the end of the second round. Kambosos isn’t a pushover, but he is a step down in competition compared to higher-ranked opponents Lopez has already defeated in No. 2 Lomachenko and No. 6 Commey.

Kambosos is still unbeaten at 19-0, but he won his last two fights via split decision and is outmatched here in terms of skill and power.

We also have to consider the fact that we haven’t seen Lopez fight in more than a year. He has improved every time he’s stepped in the ring and hasn’t even entered the prime of his career yet. A full year in the gym, away from the public spotlight, is a massive amount of time for a young fighter. We have to assume Lopez will look even better physically and mentally for his first title defense, which is a scary thought for the rest of the division.

Lopez is an electric young talent who’s just starting to realize his tremendous potential. He should have the upperhand in every facet against Kambosos, and we don’t expect him to waste much time. Kambosos is tough as nails, but Lopez via KO/TKO is definitely the bet to make.

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Lopez To Win In Rounds 1-3

The Odds: +700 at DraftKings ➜

If you bettors want to lay -250 for Lopez via KO, they can look for a bigger value play in group round betting. And we think the most sensible play there is Lopez via KO/TKO in the first, second or third round.

Again, we are expecting the best version of Lopez we’ve ever seen for his first title defense. He could certainly make a huge statement in the early rounds and cash in on the +700 prop here. Of Lopez’ 12 knockout wins, eight of them have come in the first three rounds. He just has those heavy hands that can end the fight with the slightest opening.

The last time Lopez fought in this building he was a -235 favorite over then-IBF lightweight champion Richard Commey. Lopez dropped him early and finished the job with an offensive onslaught for the TKO victory less than halfway through Round 2.

If you’re looking for a Lopez KO prop, go with the earliest possible option.

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Fight to Go The Distance - No

The Odds: -350 at BetMGM ➜

Here’s another way to get action on a Lopez finish with a bit of insurance. Kambosos obviously has a puncher’s chance here with 10 KOs on the resume, and anything can happen when that opening bell rings.

These are two powerful punchers who finish the job more often than not. The Over/Under is set at 7.5 rounds, and we’d lean under there. But a safer bet is to wager that it won’t last the full 12 rounds. This leaves some wiggle room for Lopez scoring a KO in the later rounds, or Kambosos scoring a stunning upset with a knockout at any point. That certainly seems like the only path for Kambosos, who is listed at +1000 to win via KO and +1400 to win via decision.

Regardless of who lands the big shot, we don’t see this one going to the scorecards.

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Kambosos To Win In Rounds 4-6

The Odds: +3500 at DraftKings ➜

For those inclined to back Kambosos regardless, we’d recommend going with a group round prop wager. The +600 underdog moneyline odds aren’t spectacular given how the fight is expected to play out. Kambosos bettors might be wise to go with a longshot prop instead, and we’ve got our eye on Kambosos to win in Rounds 4-6.

Lopez should come out very strong in this fight. Kambosos would be wise to try and make it a little dirty and basically try to survive the opening rounds. If Lopez comes out with too much adrenaline and tires a bit, Kambosos could take advantage midway through the fight and catch him with a surprise shot. At +3500, we think that’s the best route to go in terms of Kambosos wagers.

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About the Author

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com
Dan Kilbridge
Handicapper Dan Kilbridge writes about college football, MLB and other sports for Bookies.com after spending three years covering Tiger Woods’ comeback and the PGA for Golfweek.
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