By Adam Martin | | 10 mins
UFC Vegas 57 Odds, Betting Predictions & Expert Picks
The UFC has been on a roll as of late, as the last two events, UFC 275 and UFC Austin, were two of the most exciting fight cards in recent memory. The train keeps on rolling this Saturday night when the world’s leading MMA promotion returns to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 57: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot.
The card features 12 fights in total, and we’ll be breaking down the main event of the evening for UFC betting purposes, as well as two other fights.
UFC Vegas 57: Tsarukyan vs Gamrot Odds
UFC Vegas 57 Main Event Best Bet
Arman Tsarukyan (-295) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (+245)
The main event of UFC Vegas 57 is a five-round lightweight bout between top-15 ranked fighters Arman Tsarukyan and Mateusz Gamrot. I predict that this is going to be a high-level MMA fight, but I believe that Tsarukyan will win this fight as a -295 favorite on betting apps.
Tsarukyan is the No. 11-ranked lightweight in the UFC. Just 25 years old, many hardcore fans of the sport consider him a potential future UFC champion. Since joining the UFC in 2019, he’s 5-1, with his lone loss coming against elite fighter Islam Makhachev, and his last two wins both coming by stoppage.
Tsarukyan has elite grappling skills but he is also working on his striking and submissions. He is turning into a very well-rounded fighter and someone who is dangerous in every facet of the fight game. At this point, it doesn’t appear that he has many weaknesses.
Much of the same can be said about Gamrot, the No. 12-ranked lightweight. The 31-year-old Pole joined the UFC in 2020 and he’s 3-1 so far with his last three wins coming by stoppage. He has shown incredible striking and grappling skills, and he is also a potential future title contender. It’s hard to really find any weaknesses in his game, but in the end, he is taking on an opponent who I believe is the real deal.
While I’m expecting Gamrot to put up a competitive fight here, I have to go with Tsarukyan to get his hand raised as a -295 favorite. I’d also look at Tsarukyan to win the fight by decision.
The Pick: Arman Tsarukyan wins at -295 with DraftKings
Alternative Pick: Arman Tsarukyan wins by decision at +150 with DraftKings
Other UFC Vegas 57 Best Bets
Thiago Moises (-255) vs. Christos Giagos (+215)
In another lightweight bout on the main card, Thiago Moises faces off against Christos Giagos. Moises is a -255 favorite on betting sites, and I fully expect him to get his hand raised in this fight.
Moises joined the UFC in 2018 and is 4-4 in the Octagon with quality wins over the likes of Bobby Green. His only losses have come against top-15 talents. Moises is a well-rounded fighter who trains at American Top Team, one of the best gyms in the sport, and he is only 27 years old, so he should keep improving.
In his last fight, he suffered a tough TKO loss to Joel Alvarez, which snapped a three-fight win streak. It was a tough loss at the time, but it came against a bigger opponent who missed weight. Now that Moises is going up against someone more his size in Giagos, I expect him to have more success. Given that he was just knocked out, I would look for Moises to go back to his bread-and-butter, which is grappling.
Giagos is a decent fighter in his own right, but he hasn’t had much success in the UFC over the years, holding just a 5-5 record. While he has lost to good fighters, Giagos has no true quality wins in the Octagon. He is a decent grappler and can strike a bit, but his submission defense is poor as he’s been tapped out four times.
He is also coming off a knockout loss to Tsarukyan - certainly not a bad defeat - but the fashion in which he lost was certainly concerning. Unless Giagos is able to catch Moises with a big shot, it’s hard to see him winning.
I view Moises as the superior striker and grappler in this matchup, and I’m picking him to win as a -255 favorite. I also think taking a shot on him to win by submission could be lucrative.
The Pick: Tiago Moises wins at -255 with DraftKings
Alternative Pick: Thiago Moises wins by submission at +215 with DraftKings
Sergey Morozov (-140) vs. Raulian Paiva (+120)
On the preliminary card is an exciting bantamweight bout between Sergey Morozov and Raulian Paiva. It should be a fun fight to watch, but I am liking Paiva as a +120 underdog here.
I’m honestly a little surprised by these betting odds, as I believe Paiva should be favored to win the fight. I know he’s coming off a KO loss to Sean O’Malley, but there’s no shame in losing to that fighter, and prior to that, Paiva had reeled off three straight wins, including a monster upset over an excellent fighter in Kyler Phillips.
Paiva is a good striker on the feet and he has a decent ground game as well. He’s also just 26 years old, trains at a great camp at Team Alpha Male, and he also has a two-inch height and two-inch reach advantage over Morozov. While Paiva is just 3-3 in the UFC, all three of his losses came against top-15 ranked fighters.
For Morozov, he’s just 1-2 in the UFC, and he’s coming off a brutal submission loss to Douglas Silva de Andrade where he got knocked down three times before tapping out. Morozov is a solid fighter with good wrestling skills and some power in his hands, but the fact he’s been finished twice in the UFC so far worries me.
He’s also 32 years old - he’s six years older than Paiva heading into this fight - and he’s coming off a fight where he took a lot of punishment. Because of the way he lost his last fight, it’s surprising to see him as the betting favorite. I think the line should be flipped and we have to take advantage of what looks like a misprint.
Give me Paiva to get the job done in this fight as a +120 underdog. If you’re feeling lucky, then you can take a shot on him to win the fight by knockout at +400 odds with DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Pick: Raulian Paiva wins at +120 with DraftKings
Alternative Pick: Raulian Paiva wins by knockout at +400 with DraftKings