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Why Now Is The Perfect Time To Bet Leicester To Win The EPL

Andrew Beasley for Bookies.com

Andrew Beasley  | 3 mins

Why Now Is The Perfect Time To Bet Leicester To Win The EPL

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In October I advised my readers to bet Jamie Vardy to be Premier League top scorer at +2500. Two months on, he’s 16 goals to the good, five clear of anyone else, and quite rightly the +125 favorite to finish the job.

Now I’m telling you to get behind his team Leicester City, the much-loved EPL underdogs, in the title race at +1600.

Granted, Liverpool have won 15 of their first 16 fixtures in the EPL to give themselves a fabulous chance of ending their 30-year quest for another league title, but by the time the frenzied festive period is through things could look considerably more competitive.

Sportsbooks see the contest as a one-horse race, with Liverpool best priced at -667 with PointsBet to finish top of the table in May. The odds give them an implied probability of around 80% of winning their first title in the Premier League era.

Liverpool’s Biggest Challengers

Two other recent champions are tucked in behind the Reds, both in the table and the betting market. However, the order in the league table is not reflected in the odds.

Manchester City are 14 points adrift of the summit, and are available at +800 with Bet365 to win their third Premier League title in a row.

Yet Leicester are almost half way between the champions and the leaders, as they are eight points behind Liverpool, but can be backed at +1600 to go all the way.

Clearly, they don’t have the recent pedigree of Manchester City, though they did win the title just three years ago. And if you’re going to bet Leicester to upset the odds once again, now could be the perfect time to do it.

Brendan Rodgers’ team are at home to Norwich City on Saturday, and are priced at around -455 to take the three points and earn their ninth league win in a row.

Brushing aside the division’s second worst team won’t greatly shift their price for the title – not least as Liverpool are wholly expected to beat bottom side Watford on the same day – but Leicester’s following two league results definitely have the potential to shorten their odds.

Big Opportunity For Foxes

After the Foxes face the Canaries, they travel to play Manchester City before then hosting Liverpool on December 26. While winning both matches is a daunting task, if they can do so then their price for the title will tumble considerably.

With Liverpool missing a league fixture to compete in the Club World Cup, their advantage might be all but gone if Leicester win their next three matches, albeit they’d have a game in hand.

The underlying expected goal statistics are not in favour of the Foxes winning the league. The data suggests they should be 14 points behind Manchester City, not six in front of them, for instance.

But the club have been here before, and shocked the world in 2015/16. If they are to win the Premier League this season, Leicester almost certainly need to beat City and Liverpool before the end of December.

If they do, you might just regret not having had a bet on them now.

About the Author

Andrew Beasley for Bookies.com
Andrew Beasley
Andrew Beasley is a widely published football writer. His love of stats provides him with plenty of insight which can be applied to betting.