UFC 248 features two title fights as co-main events. Israel Adesanya defends his middleweight title against Yoel Romero and Weili Zhang defends her strawweight belt against former champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Both champions are favorites but both underdogs are strong. Let’s break down the best UFC betting wagers for UFC 248 on Saturday in Las Vegas.

UFC 248 Bets to Back

Yoel Romero by KO/TKO

Adesanya, above right, is on the verge of becoming the UFC’s next big superstar but standing in his way is the single greatest athlete in the history of MMA. Romero, above left, is not only the best athlete in the sport, he’s also a tactical genius, capable of reconfiguring his entire game on the fly during fights. That combination has led to him being a unicorn in the sport: Someone who loses fights right up until he wins them definitively.

Conversely, Adesanya, a brilliant tactician and the most skilled striker in the sport, adjusts when he falls behind and goes back to winning. The problem is that a comeback is tough to pull off against a man who gives away rounds right up until he sparks you.

If Romero is going to win this fight, and he has a decent chance, it’s going to be by sudden knockout and Adesanya’s confidence will give him opportunities to do so before he can fully adjust. It’s on Romero to capitalize and I think there’s a better chance of that happening than the odds suggest.

Israel Adesanya by Decision

The counterpoint to everything above is that Adesanya wins a lot of rounds. It’s almost certain that “The Last Stylebender” will take the first two rounds on the judges’ scorecards. If that happens, he would only need to take one more round and survive to the final bell.

More to the point, Romero has proven time and again to be essentially indestructible. The stories his opponents tell of fighting him and how hitting him feels like punching steel are legend. If Adesanya wins, it will be over the course of 25 minutes via superior technical prowess and +185 is fine value.

Yoel Romero to Win in Round 3

“Third-round Romero” is an MMA meme for a reason. The “Soldier of God” almost always gives up the first two rounds in fights. He stays defensive, makes reads and waits. Then in the third round, after lulling opponents into a false sense of security, Romero explodes. Six of Romero’s nine UFC wins have come by third-round KO and even in losses to Paulo Costa and Robert Whittaker, Romero nearly got the stoppage in the third round. This huge line is worth a sprinkle.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk to Win

In the co-main event, Joanna Champion attempts to reclaim that name by upsetting the newly crowned strawweight queen. Zhang, the champion, is still somewhat of a mystery. What we know is that much of her success has come from overwhelming physicality and less from tactics.

Meanwhile, Jedrzejczyk might not be at the peak of her powers anymore, but she’s still a sharp puncher who is extremely difficult to overwhelm. She gets stronger as fights progress. I favor Jedzrejczyk to get her hand raised either by decision or late stoppage so the plus money is excellent.

Neil Magny to Win

Neil Magny returns after an extended USADA-mandated layoff to take on rising welterweight contender Li Jingliang. After his time off, the betting world seems to have forgotten that Magny has always been an MMA overachiever. Jingliang, a physical monster with cardio and strategic concerns, is exactly the kind of opponent Magny has a penchant for surprising. The layoff is cause for concern but Magny is a live underdog.