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Stayers' Hurdle Trends For The 2024 Cheltenham Festival

Jessica Lamb for Bookies.com

Jessica Lamb  | 12 mins

Stayers' Hurdle Trends For The 2024 Cheltenham Festival

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2024 Stayers Hurdle Trends

The trends of a race can be really useful to follow when looking for winners at the Cheltenham Festival, so we've taken a look at the most important Stayers' Hurdle trends from the last 10 years for you. We've used them to find you the best horses to follow right now in the 2024 Stayers' Hurdle when placing wagers with the best horse racing betting sites.

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The last 10 winners:

  • Last ran in a Graded hurdle (not a handicap)
  • Had run at least twice in the last 12 months
  • Had run in at least four hurdle races and won at least two
  • Last ran in a race at least 32 days ago
  • Last ran at Cheltenham or in Ireland
  • Had won at least one Grade 1 or Grade 2 hurdle; eight winners achieved this over 3m (More Of That and Nichols Canyon did not)

Nine of the last 10 winners:

  • Had run at Cheltenham before, seven at the Festival (Flooring Porter in 2021 was having his first Cheltenham outing)
  • Last ran no more that 80 days ago (exception Penhill had last run at the Punchestown festival)
  • Had run at least twice that season (Penhill)
  • Were aged between six and nine (exception Sire Du Berlais was aged 11)
  • Had three or more wins on a left-handed track (Lisnagar Oscar had only two wins)
  • Had eight or more runs over hurdles and at least three wins (More Of That was unbeaten in four outings)
  • Had placed over hurdles over a distance of at least 3m, eight winning (Nichols Canyon placed, More Of That never tried) 
  • Finished in the first four last time out, four winning and two finishing second (Nichols Canyon fell in the Irish Champion Hurdle)

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Key Trials from the last 10 years

Four of the last 10 winners last ran in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham (Cole Harden, Thistlecrack, Paisley Park and Lisnagar Oscar). No trial has a better record in producing the winner of the Stayers' Hurdle, and in 2024 the race was won by Noble Yeats. The Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham has also proved a useful trial, with one winner and several placed finishers in the past 10 years. Bob Olinger won this season's renewal on New Year's Day.

Only one winner in the last 10 years had never run at Cheltenham before - Flooring Porter in 2021. The others had all run at least once at the course, so it pays to look at all relevant Cheltenham hurdle races. Flooring Porter, winner of the 2021 and 2022, had last run in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown in December before both wins.

Trainer Trends

  • Paul Nicholls has won the race four times overall, more than any other trainer, but all wins were by his star staying hurdler Big Buck’s. The last of those victories came in 2012. Nicholls has had three placed horses since.
  • Willie Mullins has won two of the last seven Stayers' Hurdles, both winners being aged seven and bred in Britain. He's also had four placed horses in the past 12 years from 22 runners.
  • The last three winners were trained in Ireland, as were five of the last seven.

Jockey Trends

There are no notable jockey trends in the Stayers' Hurdle, though Danny Mullins has won twice on Flooring Porter.

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How Did the Trends do Last Year?

The big snag for Flooring Porter on trends in 2021 was that he had never run at Cheltenham before. The only other horse to do this in the last 20 years was Baracouda in 2002. He was trained in France by Francois Doumen and was already a four-time Grade 1 winner.

Other than that, Flooring Porter ticked a lot of Stayers' Hurdle trends boxes, having won the Grade 1 Leopardstown Christmas Hurdle last time out, had a good break before Cheltenham, and run in plenty of hurdle races.

Of course, when he came back to win in 2022, that one snag had been ironed out, and again he came into the race off the back off a good run at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting.

Check out latest Cheltenham ante post odds.

 

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Who Fits The Trends Best In 2024?

The 2022 Grand National winner Noble Yeats tops the trends picks after winning the Cleeve Hurdle last time out. He is now a course and distance winner, who took the race's best trial, and ticks all the other key trends boxes. The trends also point towards 10-year-old Monkfish, who is unbeaten in two runs at Cheltenham, both at the Festival. He returned from an extended break to win a Grade 2 over 3m at Gowran Park, and if lining up, would have an interesting chance. He ticks all the boxes, except age, which is a problem for previous winners Sire Du Berlais and Paisley Park too.

Both fit the trends, provided they can overcome their advancing years. Sire Du Berlais was the first horse aged older than nine to win since Crimson Embers in 1986 when he scored aged 11 last year. He was also only the second horse aged older than nine to win since 1930. These are big stats to beat, but both horses light up at Cheltenham and shouldn't be ruled out. Sire Du Berlais' Gordon Elliott-trained stablemate Irish Point is the final trends pick. He's a Grade 1 winner over 2m7½f at Leopardstown and is aged just six. It's a negative that he hasn't run at Cheltenham before, but he did win a Grade 1 novice hurdle at Aintree last year, so travelling clearly isn't an issue.

2023 Stayers' Hurdle Result

Position Name Price Trainer Jockey
1st Sire Du Berlais 33/1 Gordon Elliott Mark Walsh
2nd Dashel Drasher 40/1 Jeremy Scott Rex Dingle
3rd Teahupoo 9/4j Gordon Elliott Davy Russell

About the Author

Jessica Lamb is a multi-media journalist who specializes in horse racing, cycling and sports betting and has worked on desks at the Racing Post and Irish Sun newspapers.