Supreme Novices' Hurdle Trends for the 2025 Cheltenham Festival

By Adam Kenny Mar 11th, 2025 8:06 AM EDT

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Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2025 Trends

Need some help finding the winner of the 2025 edition of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle? Well, look no further because our team of experts at Bookies.com have done the hard work for you by pinpointing the most critical trends and pointers from the last 10 renewals in order to help you find the winner of the Cheltenham Festival curtain-raiser when placing bets at Cheltenham betting sites.

The last 10 winners:

• Rated 144 or better (seven were rated at least 150)
• Not a maiden over hurdles.
• Five or fewer novice hurdle runs.
• Between 2 and 5 runs this season.
• Took part in a novice hurdle last time instead of a handicap or maiden hurdle.

Nine of the last 10 winners:

• 5 or 6 years old (exception Appreciate It)
• Were in the top three in the betting (Labaik)
• Had won a Graded race before, five of the last six winners had won grade 1s (Shishkin)
• Winner of at least two hurdles races (Summerville Boy)
• Victorious on a left-handed track (Grade 1-winning Constitution Hill)
• Last ran within 81 days of the Supreme (Marine Nationale)

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Key Trials from the last 10 years

The Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle, known previously as the Deloitte Novice Hurdle, has always been regarded as one of the most important pointers to the Supreme Novices' Hurdle because it clarifies the pecking order among the top Irish novices. The Grade 1 contest, which takes place at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown in early February, has been the springboard to Supreme Novices' success for the likes of Appreciate It (2021), Klassical Dream (2019), Vautour (2014) and Champagne Fever (2013) in recent years. The last 12 winners all ran in various Cheltenham novice hurdles, seven winning. The 2025 winner was Kopek Des Bordes.

The Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle has traditionally been a reasonable trial with one winner (Douvan, 2015) and three places from the last 10 years. The 2024 winner was Salvator Mundi.

The Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown has been disappointing in respect to the Cheltenham Festival, with only one winner graduating to Supreme Novices' Hurdle glory in the last 10 years - Appreciate It in 2021. 2019 winner Abacadabras came very close too when narrowly denied by Shishkin. The 2024 winner was Romeo Coolio for Gordon Elliott.

The only Grade 1 race over 2m for novices run in Britain before Cheltenham is the Tolworth Hurdle, and it has now thrown up two winners of the Supreme in the last 10 years - Summerville Boy in 2015 and Constitution Hill in 2022. Both horses won the race on their last outing before Cheltenham. The 2024 Tolworth winner was the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained Potters Charm.

The Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle and the Betfair Hurdle have had plenty of places between them in the Supreme, but neither have thrown up the winner. Both take place in February/March.

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Trainer Trends

• Three of the last 10 winners have been trained by Willie Mullins, most recently with 2021 victor Appreciate It. Mullins has won the Supreme seven times, more than any other trainer.
• Nicky Henderson is another trainer to note with three winners in the last 10 years and two in the last five. He has five overall, and his representatives usually perform admirably. More than half of his runners (10 of 19) have finished in the first three in the last 10 years, a stat bolstered by 2022's one-two with Constitution Hill and Jonbon.
• Gordon Elliott's runners are worth noting in this contest also with a winner (Labaik) and four places from only nine runners in the last 10 years.

Jockey Trends

• All of Willie Mullins’ winners in the last 10 years have been ridden by his number one stable jockey (Ruby Walsh up until 2019) so pay close attention to the chosen mount of current number one, Paul Townend.
• Nico de Boinville has the best recent record in the race with three wins on Nicky Henderson-trained horses, including two in the last five years.

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How Did the Trends do Last Year?

Slade Steel won the 2024 Supreme Novices' Hurdle, which was quite the trends-buster. He had finished second on his final run before the Cheltenham Festival and became just the second horse in the last 10 years to win the Supreme on the back of a run that wasn't a win. Beyond that, though, he had run the right number of times, was the right age and had a run within 81 days of Cheltenham. 

The trends last year very much pointed towards Brighterdaysahead and Ballyburn, who both swerved the Supreme in favour of a different Cheltenham contest. Mystical Power also ticked a lot of trends boxes, particularly having won the Moscow Flyer, but ultimately finished second behind Slade Steel. 

Check out the best horse racing betting sites.

2024 Supreme Novices' Hurdle Result

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2025?

You have to go a long way down the odds on betting apps to find a Supreme contender who didn't win last time out, while there aren't many entered in the race without a run in the last 81 days either.

Kopek Des Bordes was impressive in winning his trial at the Dublin Racing Festival in February. The winner of that race has gone on to Supreme Novices' Hurdle success four times in the last 11 years (all trained by Willie Mullins). His stable will end up with more than one entry, but he's sure to be the chosen mount of Paul Townend, which will be a tip in itself.

Gordon Elliott's runners are worth paying attention to in this race, given the trainer's record in it. Romeo Coolio is sure to be popular, and is a contender based entirely on trends. Last seen at Leopdardstown at Christmas when winning the Future Champions Novices' Hurdle, he's the right age and has the right amount of experience to go very close. Keep him in mind when using your Cheltenham free bets.

Cheltenham Festival 2025 Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day One Trends

• Supreme Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Arkle Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Ultima Handicap Chase Trends
• Cheltenham Mares' Hurdle Trends
• Cheltenham Champion Hurdle Trends
• Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Trends
• National Hunt Novices' Chase Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Two Trends

• Turners Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Brown Advisory Novices' Chase Trends
• Coral Cup Trends
• Cheltenham Cross Country Chase Trends
• Cheltenham Champion Chase Trends
• Grand Annual Chase Trends
• Cheltenham Champion Bumper Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Three Trends

• Cheltenham Mares' Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Jack Richards Novices' Limited Handicap Chase
• Pertemps Final Trends
• Ryanair Chase Trends
• Stayers' Hurdle Trends
• Cheltenham Festival Plate Handicap Trends
• Kim Muir Handicap Chase Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Four Trends

• Triumph Hurdle Trends
• County Hurdle Trends
• Mares' Chase Trends
• Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends
• Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase Trends
• Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Trends

About the Author

Adam Kenny

More About Adam

Adam has worked in online betting for pretty much his entire adult life. Having spent over a decade working for some of the biggest betting sites and online casinos in their operations and content teams, NFL, soccer and horse racing are Adam's main focuses, but there's always room for him to cast his eye over a new slot game or casino.