Supreme Novices' Hurdle Trends for the 2026 Cheltenham Festival

By James Stoddart

Feb 11th, 2026 12:27 PM EST

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Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2026 Trends

Need some help finding the winner of the 2026 edition of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle? Well, look no further because our team of experts at Bookies.com have done the hard work for you by pinpointing the most critical trends and pointers from the last 10 renewals in order to help you find the winner of the Cheltenham Festival curtain-raiser when placing bets at Cheltenham betting sites.

The last 10 winners:

• Rated 144 or better, only the enigmatic Labaik was rated under 147.
• Not a maiden over hurdles.
• Five or fewer novice hurdle runs.
• Between 2 and 5 runs this season.
• Took part in a novice hurdle last time out instead of a handicap or maiden hurdle.

Nine of the last 10 winners:

• 5 or 6 years old (Appreciate It)
• Were in the top three in the betting (Labaik)
• Had won a Graded race before, six of the last seven winners had won grade 1s (Shishkin)
• Winner of at least two hurdles races (Summerville Boy)
• Victorious on a left-handed track (Grade 1-winning Constitution Hill)
• Last ran within 81 days of the Supreme (Marine Nationale)

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Last 10 Supreme Novice Hurdle Winners

Key Trials from the last 10 years

The Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle, known previously as the Deloitte Novice Hurdle, has always been regarded as one of the most important pointers to the Supreme Novices' Hurdle because it clarifies the pecking order among the top Irish novices. The Grade 1 contest, which takes place at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown in early February, has been the springboard to Supreme Novices' success for the likes of Kopek Des Bordes (2025), Appreciate It (2021), Klassical Dream (2019), Vautour (2014) and Champagne Fever (2013) in recent years. The last 13 winners all ran in various Cheltenham novice hurdles, seven winning. The 2026 winner was Talk The Talk.

The Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle has traditionally been a reasonable trial with one winner (Douvan, 2015) and three places from the last 10 years. The 2026 winner was Sober.

The Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown has been disappointing in respect to the Cheltenham Festival, with only one winner graduating to Supreme Novices' Hurdle glory in the last 10 years - Appreciate It in 2021. 2019 winner Abacadabras came very close too when narrowly denied by Shishkin. The 2025 winner was Skylight Hustle for Gordon Elliott who has farmed that race in recent years.

The only Grade 1 race over 2m for novices run in Britain before Cheltenham is the Tolworth Hurdle now known as the Formby Hurdle, and it has now thrown up two winners of the Supreme in the last 10 years - Summerville Boy in 2015 and Constitution Hill in 2022. Both horses won the race on their last outing before Cheltenham. The 2025 Tolworth winner was the Bryan Carver-trained Idaho Sun, who beat Mydaddypaddy in a race which omitted many hurdles due to low sun.

The Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle and the Betfair Hurdle have had plenty of places between them in the Supreme, but neither have thrown up the winner in recent years. Both take place in February/March and can probably be ignored for trends purposes.

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Trainer Trends

• Three of the last 10 winners have been trained by Willie Mullins, most recently with 2025 victor Kopek Des Bordes. Mullins has won the Supreme eight times, more than any other trainer.
• Nicky Henderson is another trainer to note with three winners in the last 10 years and two since 2020. He has five overall, and his representatives usually perform admirably. More than half of his runners (10 of 19) have finished in the first three in the last 11 years, a stat bolstered by 2022's one-two with Constitution Hill and Jonbon.
• Gordon Elliott's runners are worth noting in this contest also with a winner (Labaik) and five places from only ten runners in the last 11 years.

Jockey Trends

• All of Willie Mullins’ winners in the last 10 years have been ridden by his number one stable jockey (Ruby Walsh up until 2019) so pay close attention to the chosen mount of current number one, Paul Townend.
• Nico de Boinville has the best recent record in the race with three wins on Nicky Henderson-trained horses, including two in the last six years.

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How Did the Trends do Last Year?

Kopek Des Bordes won the 2025 Supreme Novices' Hurdle, which fit the trends perfectly. He had won on his final run before Cheltenham at a key trial when winning the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. Was trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by his number one jockey, he had run the right number of times, was the right age, had a lofty rating coming into the race, had a run within 81 days of Cheltenham and ticked every other box.

The trends last year very much pointed towards Kopek Des Bordes and Romeo Coolio. Our verdict favoured Kopek Des Bordes but it validated the research to see Romeo Coolio run a cracker as well. This does seem to be a race you can rely on the trends to find you a winner on the first day.

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2025 Supreme Novices' Hurdle Result

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2026?

Only one horse in the top seven in the betting on betting apps for the Supreme didn't win last time out, while there aren't many entered in the race without a run in the last 81 days either.

Talk The Talk showed an impressive turn of hoof to win his trial at the Dublin Racing Festival in February. The winner of that race has gone on to Supreme Novices' Hurdle success five times in the last 12 years (all trained by Willie Mullins). He would be Joseph O'Brien's first winner in the race, but considering the standard of the operation it wouldn't be a surprise for him saddle the winner.

Gordon Elliott's runners are worth paying attention to in this race, given the trainer's record in it. El Cairos is sure to be popular, but he falls down on a number of key trends. He will go into the race having only won a maiden hurdle last time out and because of that he's probably not going to enter the race with a rating over 144. Keep him in mind when using your Cheltenham free bets though because of Elliott's strike rate of getting horses to place.

Old Park Star is a strong favourite in the betting currently, and will make it a third Henderson/De Boinville success in the last seven years. He ticks all the trends boxes but didn't take in one of the key trails on the way to Cheltenham, so could be being flattered by winning a weak race impressively. The most notable winner of the Rossington Main Novices' Hurdle in recent years was Jonbon, who went on to be smashed by Constitution Hill in the Supreme.

Cheltenham Festival 2026 Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day One Trends

• Supreme Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Arkle Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Trends
• Ultima Handicap Chase Trends
• Cheltenham Champion Hurdle Trends
• Cheltenham Festival Plate Handicap Trends
• National Hunt Novices' Chase Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Two Trends

• Turners Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Brown Advisory Novices' Chase Trends
• Coral Cup Trends
• Cheltenham Cross Country Chase Trends
• Cheltenham Champion Chase Trends
• Grand Annual Chase Trends
• Cheltenham Champion Bumper Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Three Trends

• Cheltenham Mares' Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Jack Richards Novices' Limited Handicap Chase
• Cheltenham Mares' Hurdle Trends
• Ryanair Chase Trends
• Stayers' Hurdle Trends
• Pertemps Final Trends
• Kim Muir Handicap Chase Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Four Trends

• Triumph Hurdle Trends
• County Hurdle Trends
• Mares' Chase Trends
• Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends
• Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase Trends
• Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Trends

About the Author

James Stoddart

More About James

Born in Liverpool, James is an LFC fan and season ticket holder. He's got an interest in playing and watching most sports including golf, darts, football and horse racing. As a keen punter, he's always on the lookout for value and loves spotting something at a big price that fits the trends. He applies this to online casino too, and is always looking to beat the house.

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