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Brown Advisory Novices' Chase 2023 Trends

Jessica Lamb for Bookies.com

Jessica Lamb  | 7 mins

Brown Advisory Novices' Chase 2023 Trends

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2023 Cheltenham Festival Brown Advisory Novices' Chase Trends

The last 10 winners

  • Were largely not bred in France (French-breds are 1/29, L'Homme Presse getting that win in 2022)
  • Had run in 2-5 novice chases
  • Had run in a Graded race, seven winning. The last three winners had won Grade 1s.
  • Had two or more wins on a galloping track
  • Last ran no more than 77 days ago, the majority last running within 39 days
  • Had won at least one hurdle race

Nine of the last 10 winners

  • Won, or were beaten no more than 3 lengths, last time out (exception Champ, who fell)
  • Last ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 novice chase (exception Might Bite ran in a Grade 1 previously)
  • Had run at Cheltenham before (exception Lord Windermere), 6/9 winning
  • Had won on a left-handed track

Eight of the last 10 winners

  • Had won over at least 3m before; 7/10 winning over fences

Key Trials from the last 10 years

  • Two winners in the last 10 years had won the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Novice Chase in February at Leopardstown (Bostons Angel and Monkfish). 2018 winner Monalee was placed and a further four Ladbrokes runners went on to be placed in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase in 2022, 2021, 2017 and 2013. Mighty Potter won the race in 2023.
  • Two winners of the Neville Hotels Novice Chase at Leopardstown's Christmas Festival have gone on to win the Brown Advisory - Monkfish and Don Poli - with a further three runners in that race going on to place in 2021, 2019 and 2014. The 2022 winner was Gaillard Du Mesnil.
  • 2022 winner L'Homme Presse was winner of both the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown, and the Dipper Novices' Chase at Cheltenham, which 2021 winner Champ also ran in. Gerri Colombe won the 2023 Scilly Isles Novices' Chase.
  • Ascot's Grade 1 Reynoldstown Novices' Chase in February is another worth keeping an eye on as winner Ofaolains Boy and runner-up Bobs Worth went on to win this Cheltenham race.

Trainer Trends

  • Willie Mullins has saddled two winners and four placed horses from 16 runners in the past 10 years and overall is the race's winning-most trainer with five winners.
  • Nicky Henderson has two wins and three placings from just 11 runners in the past 10 years. He has saddled four winners in his career.
  • Paul Nicholls has a winner and one placing from eight runners in the past 10 runnings, but overall has three winners.
  • Gordon Elliott is currently 0/5 in this race, but one of those four did place.

Jockey Trends

The jockey riding at the moment with the most wins in this event is Davy Russell, with three victories, all for different Ireland-based trainers. But he's only temporarily suspended his retirement while Jack Kennedy recovers from injury and is unlikely to ride at Cheltenham.

How did the trends do last year?

L'Homme Presse bucked one of this race's must reliable trends in 2022.

Before his win, the last French-bred to win was Star De Mohaison in 2006.

A total of 29 French-bred have run in the last 10 years and only L'Homme Presse has won. Some of the defeated include Delta Work and the 2021 Ryanair Chase winner Allaho.

If he had not been a French-bred, he would have been a very strong pick on trends, having gone unbeaten in four chases, including winning at Cheltenham, a Grade 1 and a Grade 2. He was outstanding, the favourite, and the highest-rated in the field, and thus good enough to be the one to get French-breds back on the board.

Second Ahoy Senor ticked all the trends boxes and had won over 3m, which the winner had not, while third Gaillard Du Mesnil was a maiden over fences who had been well-beaten on his latest outing. He was ruled out.

Check out latest Cheltenham ante post odds.

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2023?

Mighty Potter already fit the trends best, even before winning the key trial at Leopardstown's Dublin Racing Festival, but he is more likely to run in the shorter Turners Novices' Chase.

The Dipper Novices' Chase winner The Real Whacker is the next-best, ticking all the key boxes, including have won his last two starts at Cheltenham to remain unbeaten over fences. The latest was on New Year's Day, giving him that key recent run, though a negative is that he has only run twice over fences, where three or more is optimum.

Thyme Hill, a Grade 2 winner at Kempton and multiple Grade 1 winner over hurdles, is also a good fit, though would need a more recent run.

There are some other promising types in the potential line up that have been ruled out due to being French-breds, but one fits the profile of last year's winner L'Homme Presse and so should be shortlisted.

Gerri Colombe is unbeaten over fences, hurdles and in bumpers, his Scilly Isles Novices' Chase win giving him two Grade 1s over fences. He's won on plenty of galloping courses, and left-handed.

2022 Brown Advisory Novices' Chase Result

Position Name Price Trainer Jockey
1st L'Homme Presse 9/4f Venetia Williams Charlie Deutsch
2nd Ahoy Senor 4/1 Lucinda Russell Derek Fox
3rd Gaillard Du Mesnil 11/1 Willie Mullins Paul Townend

About the Author

Jessica Lamb is a multi-media journalist who specializes in horse racing, cycling and sports betting and has worked on desks at the Racing Post and Irish Sun newspapers.