The Big 12 championship game nobody expected is here: Baylor, which finished 2-7 a year ago, against an Oklahoma State team that punched its ticket by beating rival Oklahoma for the first time in seven seasons.

So now it’s the 11-1 Cowboys against the 10-2 Bears, in a rematch of a 24-14 Pokes victory in Stillwater on Oct. 2. Oklahoma State is a 4-point favorite for Saturday’s noon ET kickoff under the roof of AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, where both programs are vying for their first victory in a league championship game that debuted in 1996.

There’s even more on the line for the Cowboys, who are trying to state their case for a bid to the College Football Playoff. Expect a lot of college football betting interest in a showdown that kicks off a loaded Saturday of conference championship games.

Odds subject to change.

Baylor vs Oklahoma State Key Matchups

Oklahoma State’s front seven vs. Baylor’s Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner: The Bears’ tailback duo has combined for 2,112 yards and 14 touchdowns this season, although they were limited to 97 in the first game against the Cowboys.

Baylor’s offensive line vs. Malcolm Rodriguez: An All-Big 12 linebacker, Rodriguez ranks second in the league in tackles and sixth in tackles for loss, and will be key in disrupting the Baylor backfield as the Cowboys were able to do in October.

Spencer Sanders vs. J.T. Woods: Baylor stayed close in the first game by intercepting Oklahoma State quarterback Sanders three times. Woods, a safety, is the star of the Bears secondary with three picks on the season, one returned for a TD.

5 Key Baylor vs Oklahoma State Stats

280: Baylor’s total offensive yards in the loss to Oklahoma State on Oct. 2.

12-7: Oklahoma State’s record against the spread in neutral-site games under coach Mike Gundy, hired prior to the 2005 campaign.

5-3-2: Baylor’s record against the spread as an underdog under coach Dave Aranda, hired prior to the 2020 season.

6-4: Baylor’s record in its last 10 meetings with Oklahoma State.

3-1: Oklahoma State’s record against Baylor when both teams are ranked in the AP Top 25.

Baylor vs Oklahoma State Moneyline

Oklahoma State is a -190 moneyline favorite, according to top sportsbooks, while Baylor is a +160 underdog. The Cowboys defense made life tough on Baylor quarterback Gerry Bohanon in their first matchup, sacking him three times, hurrying him nine times, and breaking up five passes.

That defense remains Oklahoma State’s calling card, and could face a rather one-dimensional Bears attack with Bohanon questionable due to a hamstring injury. If Oklahoma State’s Sanders doesn’t throw three picks like he did in the last matchup, this game won’t be as close. We’re going with the favorite and eschewing these college football odds altogether.

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Baylor vs Oklahoma State Point Spread

Oklahoma State is a 4-point favorite, according to the best betting apps in the US. Make that 10 straight covers for the Cowboys (assuming you were able to get them as 3.5-point favorites last week) after their 37-33 victory over the Sooners. The last time the Pokes didn’t cover a spread was Sept. 11 against Tulsa.

Baylor’s been very good against the spread as well, covering five of seven, but a close call at home last week against mediocre Texas Tech (with Bohanon out) was concerning. OSU covered as 3.5-point favorites over Baylor last time, and we’ll continue to ride that Cowboys wave in our college football picks. You can get Oklahoma State -4 (-115) at DraftKings.

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Baylor vs Oklahoma State Totals

The total is 46.5, according to betting sites. Bedlam lived up to its nickname last week, with the Cowboys and Sooners going well over the total of 51, marking just the third time in the last eight games that the Pokes have gone over the total. Chalk that up to a rivalry game, and have faith in a defense that’s allowing 16.4 points per game.

Baylor’s defense is really good, too, allowing just 19.4 points and 120 rushing yards per game. The Bears have also gone under in four of five. With Bohanon potentially out again, the under seems the sensible play. Make the bet at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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