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College Football Picks & Saturday Predictions: Kentucky-Georgia, Big Ten & More

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com

Dan Kilbridge  | 8 mins

College Football Picks & Saturday Predictions: Kentucky-Georgia, Big Ten & More

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College football – and college football betting – needed a season like this. A season where old truths are out the window. A season where the CFP picture is a chaotic blur at the midway point. A season where a team from outside the Power 5 has a legit shot. A season where Alabama loses to unranked opponents!

Point is, 2021 has been different. There’s a (very slim) chance that Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma and Clemson could all miss out on the CFP with new blood Georgia, Iowa and Cincinnati currently top three in the AP poll.

For those that argued against the playoff structure, this is a great opportunity to disprove the notion that the same teams make it every year. Now, we could still end up with all the usual suspects like Georgia, Oklahoma, Alabama and Ohio State. But Georgia is the only squad of the four with a little wiggle room, and every week is starting to include potential CFP elimination games for the one-loss elites.

Regardless of how it all shakes out, we’re enjoying the action at the sportsbooks. Week 6 was one of the most memorable college football Saturday’s in years, capped by Texas A&M’s upset win over the Tide.

As bettors and fans, we can’t wait to see what happens next. We checked all the college football odds for Saturday, and these are our top 5 Saturday college football picks.

Saturday College Football Week 7 Best Bets

Michigan State ATS over Indiana

We’ve seen this from the Michigan State point spreads every week. Betting apps still don’t think too highly of a Spartans team that’s relied heavily on explosive offensive plays and special teams execution. And every week, the Spartans keep getting it done. They’re 4-1-1 against the spread and have the most productive player in the country with running back Kenneth Walker III.

The contest at Indiana has been considered a trap game for Michigan State in recent decades, but those days are over. This is a very dangerous offense, and the defense is good enough to support it. The public keeps hammering Michigan State in these spots, and the Spartans keep getting it done. This is a focused team and Mel Tucker won’t let them get caught looking ahead to the bye week and Oct. 30 showdown with Michigan in East Lansing. We’re on Michigan State -4.

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Kentucky ATS over Georgia

This is too many points for a team built like Kentucky. Georgia’s offense will continue to run all over soft defenses for blowout wins and covers. The Wildcats aren’t soft. They only give up 111.3 yards on the ground and rank third in the SEC in total defense behind Alabama and Georgia. Offensively, they’re up against it facing a Bulldogs defense already getting “greatest of all time” whispers. We’ll see about that.

This is obviously an elite unit, but Kentucky wideout Wan’Dale Robinson will be the best receiver they’ve seen, and it only takes one play to flip the script and put a ton of pressure on the Bulldogs’ offense, which has enjoyed a cozy existence so far this season. They didn’t handle the pressure well in a 10-3 season-opening win over Clemson, with the Bulldogs’ defense scoring the lone touchdown.

If Kentucky can just hang tough for a few drives, the dynamic changes completely and 23 suddenly looks like a huge number for a mediocre Georgia offense. We’re on Kentucky +23 at WynnBET.

Purdue ATS over Iowa

Make no mistake – Iowa was going to lose to Penn State at home before Nittany Lions quarterback Sean Clifford went down. Credit the Hawkeyes for taking advantage and making plays down the stretch, but this looks a lot like some of those Lovie Smith Chicago Bears teams – an elite defense good with an offense that causes the home fans to drink heavily.

That’s a good matchup for Purdue, which actually has a better defense than Penn State at third in the conference and just 299.4 yards per game allowed. Offensively it airs it out all game, which is dangerous against the Hawkeyes. But it’s better than teams that keep banging their head against the wall trying in vain to establish the run against Iowa. Purdue keeps it close in what should be a very low-scoring game. We’re on the points and like Boilermakers +11.5 with DraftKings.

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Pittsburgh ATS over Virginia tech

This is a fishy line, but we’re taking the Panthers anyways. They have the third-best offense in the country and quarterback Kenny Pickett has the best rating of any signal-caller, ahead of Heisman front-runners Bryce Young and Matt Corral. They’ve scored at least 40 points in every game, and we don’t expect a bye week to throw off their rhythm.

Pittsburgh is 9-4 against the spread at betting sites after a bye since Narduzzi arrived in 2015, as he remains one of the great motivators in the sport. The Panthers are vulnerable in a shootout, but we don’t expect the Hokies offense to participate. We’re on Pittsburgh -5 at Caesars Sportsbook.

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Western Michigan ATS over Kent State

The Broncos’ 45-20 loss to Ball State last week was surprising and ugly, but Western Michigan should bounce back strong against the Golden Flashes. It was a weird game with the Broncos dominating time of possession and outgaining the Cardinals by one yard. The difference was four Western Michigan turnovers that all led to Ball State touchdowns, including a scoop-and-score in the 4th quarter. One of those “burn the tape and move on” games.

Western Michigan still has the best defense in the MAC and Kent State will struggle to run the ball. Kent State has the worst defense in conference, and we expect a big bounce-back game for the Broncos. We’re backing them at FanDuel.

About the Author

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com
Dan Kilbridge
Handicapper Dan Kilbridge writes about college football, MLB and other sports for Bookies.com after spending three years covering Tiger Woods’ comeback and the PGA for Golfweek.