Georgia vs LSU Odds, SEC Title Game Picks & Predictions
Dan Kilbridge | 5 mins
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Redemption usually doesn’t play a factor for defending national champions. That’s not the case for Georgia ahead of Saturday’s SEC Championship showdown with LSU.
The college football betting odds for that game had Georgia as a 6-point favorite over Alabama in this same spot a year ago, snapping a streak of 92 straight games in which the Tide were favorites. But Georgia wasn’t up for the moment and got crushed in a 41-24 victory for Alabama.
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We all know how it played out from there – Georgia got the rematch it wanted in the College Football Playoff championship and pushed the Tide around for a 33-18 win to deliver the school’s first national title since 1980.
Now the Bulldogs can put all their focus on an elusive SEC title, with a chance at their first conference championship since 2017 up for grabs Saturday in Atlanta.
LSU vs. Georgia Point Spread Pick
What a year it’s been for Brian Kelly and the Bayou Bengals. Just three years removed from a national title but on the brink of SEC mediocrity, the first-year coach overcame a Week 1 loss to Florida State to help the Tigers get right back to the conference championship game.
The season included a brutal 40-13 loss to a Tennessee team that most assumed would cruise to Mercedes-Benz Stadium. But the Tigers rebounded with an epic 32-31 overtime win over Alabama and got enough help elsewhere to set up this clash with the Bulldogs.
Georgia is a three-score favorite on betting apps after running the table in the regular season, a slate in which there was really only one close call – a 26-22 comeback win at Missouri on Oct. 1. That scare seemed to wake this team up, and they’ve since won every game by double digits.
We’re not expecting LSU to have much success moving the chains. The Bulldogs haven’t given up more than 22 points in any game this season, and their 27-13 win over then-No. 1 Tennessee proved they can shut down even the most elite offense. LSU does not have an elite offense. It’s a good one, balanced and capable of getting it done against most SEC opponents. Georgia is not most SEC opponents.
LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels has been effective against extremely weak secondaries like Tennessee and Florida, but he’s been held under 190 passing yards in three of the last four games and hasn’t been able to produce big numbers against above-average defensive backs.
We don’t see any way the Tigers can create consistent scoring opportunities, and they’re vulnerable against the run. We don’t expect this one to be competitive in the second half. We like Georgia -17.5 for our college football picks.
LSU vs. Georgia Moneyline Pick
Georgia’s -950 college football moneyline odds is a steep price to pay, but we don’t see any value on the Tigers at +650. They just don’t have a path to victory in this matchup.
The Bulldogs are still on top of the national championship betting board, listed at -150 to go back-to-back. They’re well ahead of the remaining teams, with Michigan next at +300 on sports betting sites and Ohio State third at +800 – despite the fact that the Buckeyes will need a lot of help and a massive break from the committee just to get into the CFP.
There’s definitely an argument to be made that this Georgia team is even better than the 2021 edition. While the defense has been just a hair below the level of dominance last year, the offense has picked it up and opposing defenses haven’t had any answers.
We don’t like laying massive numbers like -950 straight up or in parlays, where they don’t add much to the bottom line. But we’d definitely recommend staying away from the Tigers at +650 no matter how tempting it looks.
LSU vs. Georgia Over/Under Pick
The total is set in the low 50s and LSU isn’t expected to contribute much. The question is how aggressive the Bulldogs can get on offense against a Tigers unit that’s held tough most of the season.
We like Georgia to have a ton of success on the ground against a Bayou Bengals front seven that gave up 274 rushing yards last week against Texas A&M. The Bulldogs have scored 40 points or more in six games this season and this venue tends to host shootouts – Alabama and Georgia combined for 65 points last year, while Alabama and Florida totaled 98 points in 2020.
Basically, we expect the Bulldogs to cover most of the total on their own. LSU is capable of hitting a few big plays on offense and picking up a garbage time score or two. We’re on Over 51 points in Atlanta.