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Kentucky vs Georgia Predictions, Picks & Betting Preview

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com

Dan Kilbridge  | 7 mins

Kentucky vs Georgia Predictions, Picks & Betting Preview

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Can Georgia really keep doing this?

That would have been a ridiculous question a decade ago, when a top-ranked defense was the surest path to the College Football Playoff and a national title. Defense wins championships was still a fact back then.

Defense doesn’t win championships anymore. Not unless you’ve got a top-five offense to go with it. We’ve seen that in recent years with Alabama and LSU defenses that were good enough to keep opposing teams under 40 most nights, but still ranked outside the top 30 nationally.

Is Georgia good enough on that side of the ball to reverse the trend?

The No. 1-ranked Bulldogs give up just 201.2 yards per game and seem to be getting better, with 10 total points allowed in their last three games. They’ve only given up two touchdowns through six games. That’s ridiculous. If they can keep this up, they’ll be in serious consideration for greatest defense of all time.

That’s still a big if. Georgia has a pretty pedestrian offense, ranked 49th at just over 430 yards per game. It’s been more than enough so far, and the final month of the schedule is a cakewalk. That’s why the next three weeks are so important.

Georgia has No. 11 Kentucky and No. 20 Florida at home in its next two games. They definitely appear to be on track for an SEC title game matchup with Alabama.

With no clear-cut offensive juggernaut and a fortunate conference schedule, is this the year we see a return to defensive-oriented greatness?

That question grows more intriguing by the week. So does the potential for an embarrassing loss and a shake-up atop the national scene. That continues this week with Georgia hosting the Wildcats.

Let’s take a deeper look at this conference matchup and what it means from a college football betting perspective.

All college football odds are current as of publication. Betting sites may indicate odds changes closer to kickoff.

Kentucky vs. Georgia Key Matchups

Kentucky Front Seven vs. Georgia RBs: Breaking news: Georgia has a deep, talented offensive backfield. Zamir White, James Cook and Kendall Milton have each rushed for at least 200 yards on 40 or more touches, with the Bulldogs averaging nearly 200 yards per game on the ground. This will be another important test for the trio. Kentucky is strong against the run at just 111.3 yards per game. If they can hang tough against the Bulldogs and make it about quarterback Stetson Bennett, they’ll have a chance to make things interesting. If Georgia can keep pounding away on the ground, it’s gonna be a long afternoon for the Wildcats.

Wan’Dale Robinson vs. Georgia DBs: Georgia has the best secondary in the country at just 137 passing yards allowed per game. They’ll be excited for this matchup as Robinson is clearly the best receiver they’ve seen this season. The junior has 527 yards and four scores on the season. Getting him in single coverage is Kentucky’s best hope at points in this game. That won’t happen very often, but Robinson and Wildcats quarterback Will Levis need to capitalize when it does.

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4 Key Stats For Kentucky vs. Georgia

2: Touchdowns scored by Georgia’s defense, equaling the total of all opposing offenses so far this season.

3.56: Yards per play allowed by the Bulldogs defense, best in the nation by nearly half a yard.

11: Consecutive Georgia wins over Kentucky dating back to 2009.

1: Kentucky victory in Georgia since 1977.

Kentucky vs. Georgia Weather Forecast

It should be a perfect afternoon for football, with sunny skies and temperatures in the low 70s for kickoff at Sanford Stadium.

Kentucky vs. Georgia Moneyline

You will not find us anywhere near the moneyline for this one. Georgia is a whopping -2000 as favorite and if you’ve got those kinds of funds to burn, be our guest. There’s no value there as a straight moneyline bet or in parlays.

Kentucky is +1000 on the moneyline for a number of reasons – did we mention the Wildcats have only beaten Georgia in Athens one time since 1977? If you’re dead-set on sprinkling Wildcats moneyline, we guess you could look to 2019 when Georgia lost to unranked South Carolina at home as a three-touchdown favorite. But you’d still be reaching.

There’s just not much to like about these lopsided moneylines at DraftKings.

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Kentucky vs. Georgia Point Spread

Here’s where things get interesting. The line opened at Georgia -24.5 and has since dropped down to Georgia -23. FanDuel has an even better line for Bulldogs bettors at -21.5 ( -105 ).

Georgia and Kentucky are both 5-1 against the spread this season, so something’s gotta give at Sanford Stadium. It’s important to remember that the Wildcats have a legit defense, one that could buy some time in the early going. The Bulldogs do most of their damage out of the gate with an average of 24.5 points in the first half.

It would be interesting to see this Georgia offense tested out of the gate. We saw it in the opener against Clemson as Georgia escaped with a 10-3 win, despite not scoring an offensive touchdown. The offense has been under zero pressure in any game since then. They haven’t had to dig deep and win a ball game.

Shutting down Georgia’s rushing attack and making this offense uncomfortable will give the Wildcats an easy road to a cover. Easier said than done, obviously. But the stakes are getting higher every week for the Bulldogs, and the offense knows it’s not thanks to their incredible output. They’ll be the ones under serious pressure should the unbeaten Bulldogs find themselves in a hairy situation.

We think Kentucky’s defense does have a good chance to put up a fight and get some stops in the first half. That’s why we’re on Kentucky +23 at BetMGM.

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Kentucky vs. Georgia Total

The total is holding strong at 44.5 at sportsbooks and betting apps, the second-lowest total for a Georgia game this season. And it’s an intriguing one.

The Bulldogs’ defense has secured back-to-back Unders, but the offense sent it Over by itself two weeks ago in a 62-0 win over Vanderbilt. The betting public is pretty evenly-split on the total in this game, with good action on both sides.

These teams have enjoyed back-to-back defensive battles, with Georgia winning 14-3 in 2020 and 21-0 in 2019. We expect another physical battle. We’re on Under 44.5 at WynnBET.

About the Author

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com
Dan Kilbridge
Handicapper Dan Kilbridge writes about college football, MLB and other sports for Bookies.com after spending three years covering Tiger Woods’ comeback and the PGA for Golfweek.