By David Caraviello | | 6 mins
Notre Dame vs Virginia Predictions, Picks & Betting Preview
Notre Dame’s scheduling alliance with the ACC has been a boon for the Fighting Irish, who have feasted on competition in a league that’s taken a distinct downturn. The Golden Domers are 17-1 against ACC opponents over the past three seasons, which includes a 3-0 mark so far this year.
They have an opportunity to improve on that mark Saturday night at Virginia, whose defense is giving up scores by the bushel. When we last saw the Cavaliers two weeks ago, a four-game winning streak came to a crashing end at BYU, which hung 66 on the Wahoos.
Notre Dame, meanwhile, just keeps winning the games it’s supposed to win. Another of those looms in Charlottesville, where college football odds have the Irish as a road favorite.
Odds subject to change.
Notre Dame vs Virginia Key Matchups
Virginia’s offensive line vs Isaiah Foskey: The Notre Dame defensive lineman has nine sacks, ranking him seventh nationally. Disrupting Virginia’s passing attack begins with him getting at a Cavaliers OL that’s allowed 26 sacks this year.
Notre Dame’s secondary vs Brennan Armstrong: With or without safety Kyle Hamilton, the Irish’s defensive backs will likely have their hands full against one of the nation’s most prolific passers - if he’s able to play.
Virginia’s front seven vs Kyren Williams: Notre Dame’s offense starts with a run game centered on Williams, who’s gone over 100 yards in two of his last three games and is averaging 5 yards per carry.
5 Key Notre Dame vs Virginia Stats
466.22: The average number of yards per game allowed by Virginia’s defense, 13th in the ACC and 122nd out of 130 FBS programs.
395.22: The average number of passing yards per game by Armstrong, first in the ACC and second nationally.
39: Number of consecutive games Notre Dame has won against unranked opponents.
22-14-1: Virginia’s record against the spread as a home team under coach Bronco Mendenhall, hired prior to the 2016 campaign.
25: Number of consecutive games Notre Dame has won when it’s scored 40 or more points.
Notre Dame vs Virginia Weather Forecast
Forecasts early in the week call for clear and cold conditions Saturday night in Charlottesville, Va., where temperatures are expected to be in the 40s all evening. Chance of precipitation drops from about 25 percent in the afternoon to 5 percent at kickoff, likely still worth keeping an eye on for anyone making college football picks on this one.
Notre Dame vs Virginia Moneyline
The Irish are a -195 moneyline favorite, according to sportsbooks, while Virginia is a +150 underdog. Hamilton, Notre Dame’s star safety, has missed the past two games with a knee injury and was to be evaluated early in the week to determine his status for Virginia.
Without him, the Irish allowed 341 passing yards to North Carolina QB Sam Howell, and they face another gunslinger in Armstrong - who himself is a game-time decision due to a rib injury. Regardless, the Irish continue to take care of business against teams they’re supposed to beat, and Virginia has had far bigger issues on defense all season. Passing on this moneyline seems the best move.
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Notre Dame vs Virginia Point Spread
The offense has put up 31 points or more for four straight games, and the defense has been good enough. Virginia has feasted on the dregs of the ACC, and has failed to cover against the three best teams it’s played: BYU, North Carolina and Wake Forest, to whom it allowed 66, 37, and 59 points respectively. This is a nice mid-tier program that hasn’t proved it can play up a level, which is why we’re taking Notre Dame to cover. You can get Notre Dame -5 (-110) at BetMGM.
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Notre Dame vs Virginia Totals
The total is 64.5, according to betting apps. Virginia has gone over in two straight largely because its defense has allowed 106 points over that span. Notre Dame isn’t known for its offense, but has been able to outscore opponents when it’s had to, putting up 44 against North Carolina, 32 on Virginia Tech, and 41 on Florida State.
The Irish aren’t always pretty about it, but they’ve shown a knack for making great in-game adjustments and playing however they have to. They’ll do it again Saturday, strafing that Virginia defense to push the game over. You can get Over 64.5 (-110) at FanDuel.
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