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Oklahoma vs Baylor Picks, Predictions & Betting Preview

Jordan Horrobin for Bookies.com

Jordan Horrobin  | 5 mins

Oklahoma vs Baylor Picks, Predictions & Betting Preview

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The Oklahoma Sooners sat idle last week, awaiting what was supposed to be a blockbuster Big 12 matchup against the Baylor Bears. But Baylor lost a tight road game against TCU, taking some of the shine out of this game in the process.

Even still, both teams have a shot at the Big 12 title game (if not more). And bettors will be treated to a pair of top-20 offenses, combined with a juicy point total. Baylor hosts Oklahoma at noon ET (11 a.m. local time) on Saturday, with the Sooners giving 5.5 points based on the current college football odds.

As both teams seek to keep playoff hopes afloat, check out our college football picks for this matchup below.

Odds subject to change.

5 Keys to Oklahoma vs Baylor

Strength on strength: Baylor loves to run, and Oklahoma loves to stop it. The Bears rush for 231.3 yards per game (an astounding 6.0 yards per carry), while the Sooners allow just 111.0 rush yards per game (3.4 yards per carry). Oklahoma has five players with at least 3.5 tackles for loss this season - they love to swarm.

How it ended: After nabbing the No. 12 spot in the initial College Football Playoff poll, Baylor halted a three-game win streak with a 30-28 road loss to TCU last weekend. The Bears gave up 468 passing yards in the defeat. It’s worth noting that Oklahoma smoked TCU a few weeks ago, 52-31.

Generous Gerry: Putrid pass defense aside, Baylor has to do a better job within its own passing attack. Quarterback Gerry Bohanon threw a pair of interceptions against TCU, bringing him up to five interceptions in his past three games. He had zero interceptions in his first six games.

Caleb looking to carve: Since taking the reins as Oklahoma’s starting quarterback, Caleb Williams has collected three or more total touchdowns in four consecutive games. None were bigger than his more recent game, against Texas Tech, when Williams tossed six touchdown passes on 402 yards.

More respect for the Bears: In their past six meetings, Oklahoma has always been favored by at least two scores. Last season, Oklahoma won 27-14 at home, but Baylor covered as 23-point underdogs.

Oklahoma vs Baylor Weather Forecast

A beautiful day is expected in Waco, Texas, on Saturday, with sunny skies, no rain, and temperatures climbing into the mid-60s.

Oklahoma vs Baylor Moneyline

A point in Baylor’s favor for this game is that the Bears have yet to lose at home (5-0). Then again, Oklahoma has yet to lose anywhere (9-0). And given that what Baylor’s offense does best is also what Oklahoma’s defense does best, we think that could spell trouble for the Bears.

Both teams still have plenty to play for, but we expect Oklahoma to come out on top as -220 moneyline chalk in this college football betting matchup.

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Oklahoma vs Baylor Point Spread

The extra respect Baylor is seeing from top sportsbooks this year makes them a bit of a concerning play against the spread.

Again, the Bears just gave up more than 450 passing yards to TCU, including 10 plays of 15-plus yards. There’s no reason Caleb Williams can’t do the same thing. Both teams are relatively healthy, but the Sooners are particularly fresh coming off a bye, so we like them as 5.5-point favorites. It’s also noteworthy that Oklahoma has covered in three of its past four games. You can get the Sooners -5.5 (-110) at DraftKings.

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Oklahoma vs Baylor Totals

Given the high-octane potential of these offenses, the 62.5-point total on the best betting apps doesn’t seem too arduous to clear.

Together, the teams’ points per game combine as 79.2, although of course it’s not that simple. Baylor’s games have only gone over 63 points on two occasions this season. The Bears also haven’t met Oklahoma yet, and we think the Sooners will do enough to push this one to the over. Four of Oklahoma’s past five games have landed that way. You can get Over 62.5 (-112) at FanDuel.

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About the Author

Jordan Horrobin for Bookies.com
Jordan Horrobin
Jordan Horrobin has created sports betting content since 2019, covering everything from the NFL to KBO. Based in Toronto, he has written for MLB.com, The Athletic and Sportsnet.