Marcus Mosher for Bookies.com

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NFL Training Camp 2019 Guide & Trends for Sports Bettors

NFL Training Camp 2019 Guide & Trends for Sports Bettors
  • URL Copied!

Most NFL teams will report to training camp late in July, with the two teams participating in the Hall of Fame game coming in a few days earlier. Typically, rookies will be asked to go to camp a few days before the veterans arrive to get to know the coaches, facility, etc.

For fans of NFL betting, it helps to put into focus the upcoming season and potential NFL futures odds.

The Impact of Training Camp on Super Bowl Odds

Throughout training camp, you will occasionally see Super Bowl odds shift. Odds can change for a variety of reasons, and below are a few of the biggest reasons you will see movement between the start of training camp and the beginning of the regular season.

Injuries

Nothing impacts futures odds more than injuries during training camp. Inevitably, one or two "big-name" players will go down, and it can affect a team's entire season. A perfect example was from 2017, where Dolphins' quarterback Ryan Tannehill was lost for the season due to a torn ACL.

The Dolphins were a playoff team in the previous season but were now heading into the year without their franchise passer. The team was forced to sign recently-retired Jay Cutler and the team finished at just 6-10 due to poor quarterback play.

Injuries during training camp can have a significant impact on odds, mainly when they occur to a team's best or most valuable player. While it's impossible to predict these injuries, be ready to adjust and place bets once injury news comes out of these training camps.

 Ryan Tannehill sat out the 2017 NFL season with a preseason injury, assisting Jay Cutler on the sidelines.
Ryan Tannehill sat out the 2017 NFL season with a preseason injury, assisting Jay Cutler on the sidelines.

Impressive Play

One of the most challenging parts about training camp for bettors is all of the influx of new information. Across the league, there will be glowing reports about rookies and veterans who are shining in practice. If a player, specifically a quarterback, is impressing in camp, they can move the odds some before ever appearing in an actual game.

Deciphering which news to value is one of the trickiest parts of betting in football. However, if you can get a (correct) read on breakout players, that can lead to hints as to who may win the upcoming Super Bowl.

New Coaches or Coordinators

Over the past several seasons, we have seen new head coaches have instant success in the NFL. Look no further than the Chicago Bears in 2018, who became instant contenders after hiring Matt Nagy as the team's head coach.

But it's not only head coaches that can have significant impacts. Coordinators, specifically, offensive coordinators. Before betting on the Super Bowl odds, make sure to monitor the statuses of new head coaches and coordinators as they can significantly impact a franchise in their first year with the team.


RELATED CONTENT: Check out the latest Super Bowl odds on our NFL Futures odds page.


How Accurate are Preseason Super Bowl Odds?

During every training camp and preseason, NFL Super Bowl odds will be listed for all 32-teams. While the preseason Super Bowl favorites don't always go on to win the championship, a high-percentage of those teams do make it deep into the playoffs.

According to Bet Lab Sports, since 2001, nearly 76 percent of teams with +1000 odds or better to win the Super Bowl make it to the playoffs. That, in itself, means preseason Super Bowl odds are fairly reliable.

Since 2009, every preseason Super Bowl favorite has at least made the playoffs. Five have appeared in the Super Bowl, and two (New England Patriots in 2016 and 2018) have won the Super Bowl after being the preseason favorite. But let's dig into these odds a little further, shall we?

YearFavoriteFinishChampion’s Odds
2018NEWon Super BowlNE +600
2017NELost Super BowlPHI +4000
2016NEWon Super BowlNE +800
2015SEALost WC RoundDEN +800
2014SEALost Super BowlNE +700
2013NELost AFC Title GameSEA +1200
2012GBLost Div. Rd.BAL +1400
2011NELost Super BowlNYG +2000
2010INDLost WC RoundGB +1600
2009NELost WC RoundNO +2100

One thing to notice is that there aren't many longshots that end up winning the Super Bowl. Since 2001, only five teams with +2000 odds or worse have won the Super Bowl. Most of the eventual Super Bowl winners end up being favored somewhere between +600 and +1400.

While there is always a chance a team from the bottom tier of the league could make a run, it's typically the favorites that wind up holding up the Lombardi trophy at the end of the year.

 The Philadelphia Eagles were a +4000 bet in the preseason to win the Super Bowl in the 2017-18 season.
The Philadelphia Eagles were a +4000 bet in the preseason to win the Super Bowl in the 2017-18 season.

The best part about betting on Super Bowl odds before the regular season is that it's the best time of the year to find value. As soon as the games begin in September, the favorites start to lose value in betting on them.

As teams begin to lose and fall out of contention, the worse the odds get for the teams at the top. If you are planning on betting on Super Bowl futures, look to do so during the preseason to maximize value.

NFL 2019 Training Camp Dates and Schedule

NFC TeamVeterans Report Date
Arizona CardinalsJuly 24
Atlanta FalconsJuly 21
Carolina PanthersJuly 24
Chicago BearsJuly 25
Dallas CowboysJuly 26
Detroit LionsJuly 24
Green Bay PackersJuly 24
LA RamsJuly 26
Minnesota VikingsJuly 25
New York GiantsJuly 24
New Orleans SaintsJuly 25
Philadelphia EaglesJuly 24
San Francisco 49ersJuly 26
Seattle SeahawksJuly 24
Tampa Bay BuccaneersJuly 25
Washington RedskinsJuly 24
AFC TeamVeterans Report Date
Baltimore RavensJuly 24
Buffalo BillsJuly 24
Cincinnati BengalsJuly 26
Cleveland BrownsJuly 24
Denver BroncosJuly 17
Houston TexansJuly 24
Indianapolis ColtsJuly 24
Jacksonville JaguarsJuly 24
Kansas City ChiefsJuly 26
Los Angeles ChargersJuly 24
Miami DolphinsJuly 24
New York JetsJuly 24
New England PatriotsJuly 24
Oakland RaidersJuly 26
Pittsburgh SteelersJuly 25
Tennessee TitansJuly 25

How Do Teams on Hard Knocks Do During the Season?

It isn't too often that NFL fans get a behind the scenes look at how a franchise operates. But every year, HBO's Hard Knocks provides us an all-access look at the training camp and preseason for one franchise. In 2019, it will be the new-look Oakland Raiders who will be the star of the show for HBO.

However, history has shown that the featured team on the show hasn't had much success during the actual NFL season, often than not. Just take a look below at how teams who appeared on Hard Knocks performed during the regular season.

Ultimately, HBO's Hard Knocks should not determine whether or not you bet on a team to win the upcoming Super Bowl. But the added distraction of the show is just something to keep in mind before placing a bet. Make sure to check in on the Raiders' odds before and after the Hard Knocks show airs on HBO.

YearTeamRecordPlayoffs
2018Browns7-8-1No
2017Buccaneers5-11No
2016Rams4-12No
2015Texans9-7Yes
2014Falcons6-10No
2013Bengals11-5Yes
2012Dolphins7-9No
2010Jets11-5Yes
2009Bengals10-6Yes
2008Cowboys9-7No
2007Chiefs4-12No
2002Cowboys5-11No
2001Ravens10-6Yes
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