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Juan Soto Trade Odds: Yankees, Blue Jays Favorites To Get All-Star Slugger

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 6 mins

Juan Soto Trade Odds: Yankees, Blue Jays Favorites To Get All-Star Slugger

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The San Diego Padres might have been MLB's most-disappointing team of 2023. Armed with a who's who of sluggers and a payroll north of $250 million, the Padres were built to win now and not just challenge the Dodgers for supremacy in the NL West, but get back to the World Series in 25 years. 

Instead, they finished a modest 82-80 -- 18 games behind the Dodgers in the West. While the pitching staff finished No. 2 in baseball in ERA, the hitters ranked just 13th in home runs and run scored. 

Changed are expected in San Diego. The idea of "buying" a championship by the wayside, ownership wants to trim payroll and add pieces to a depleted farm system. At least one massive contract will need to come off the books. 

Juan Soto appears to be the frontrunner who could be on a new team in 2024, the trade chip that replenishes the Padres farm system and puts them on a brighter path.

Bookies.com oddsmaker Adam Thompson has updated his MLB odds as to where Soto is playing for 2024. 

Juan Soto 2024 Team Odds

TeamOddsImplied Probability
New York Yankees+40020.0%
Toronto Blue Jays+45018.2%
Boston Red Sox+65013.3%
Texas Rangers+70012.5%
Minnesota Twins+75011.8%
San Diego Padres+10009.1%
Los Angeles Angels+11008.3%
Chicago Cubs+11508.0%
The Field+45018.2%

This hypothetical MLB betting market is for entertainment purposes only and does not reflect any market that may be available on betting sites and betting apps.

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Soto’s numbers didn't match his astonishing 2020 season with the Nationals, when he led baseball in batting average (.351), and OPS (1.185), among other categories at age 20. But he’s still just 24, and to be clear, Soto's bat was not the reason the Padres did not match expectations. 

Soto played in all 162 games for the Padres. He led the majors in walks for the third year in a row, and his .275 average was 39 points higher than the year prior. He hit a career-high 35 HRs, and his 109 RBIs was one off his career mark. 

But Soto is expected to get an estimated $27-33 million after arbitration for '24, which would make him the highest-paid player on the team. Then he's an unrestricted free agent. Past reports and the cost-cutting trajectory suggest he won't be playing his home games at Petco Park in 2025, regardless of what happens. MLB insider Buster Olney says there is a 100% chance Soto is traded before Opening Day. 

Who Could Trade For Juan Soto?

First, it is possible Soto remains with the San Diego Padres. GM A.J. Preller said in October that they would like to agree to an extension with Soto. The Padres are losing nearly $80 million in payroll from expired contracts, so the team doesn't have to do anything to cut costs. Many baseball insiders, however, don't believe they'll agree on a number. So that means moving him, either to a team that can bring him on long-term or one that prefers a one-year, all-in rental. 

Some also believe the Padres could wait until next year's trade deadline to move him if the team isn't in contention, which adds another wrinkle. 

As far as where else Soto could end up, look first at which teams are vying for Angels superstar Shohei Ohtani. Soto could be a viable Plan B option for the franchises unable to land Shohei. 

The New York Yankees make sense for a lot of reasons. For one, a third outfielder/DH type is a need, and we know the Yankees have money. Adding Soto for one season is doable for a team that has a GM on the hot seat and a fanbase desperate to win now after missing the postseason for the first time since 2016 and without a World Series berth since 2009. 

However, trade talks fizzled when the Padres' asking price reportedly got too high for the pinstripes. That opens the door for other teams to walk in.

The Toronto Blue Jays are looking to make a huge step forward while their young stars are still under team control. They're inserted themselves in the discussions for Soto.  

The Boston Red Sox have finished 78-84 in each of the past two seasons. Pitching was the big issue, but Soto would make an immediate impact and anchor a formidable batting order that included Rafael Devers, Trevor Story, Alex Verdugo, and others. Boston has the funds and a new GM looking to make a splash, too. 

The Texas Rangers and Minnesota Twins have shown a willingness to make moves to bolster lineups. For the Rangers, it culminated in a World Series championship, while the Twins won the AL Central. The Rangers, more notably, are in need of a DH-type. Texas has been very proactive to build a winner, while Minnesota needs an off-season win after losing pitching in early free agency. 

The Los Angeles Angels aren't likely to get Ohtani back, but ownership wants to prove it's still about trying to win. How better to do that than by acquiring the next-best option in a trade? Pairing Soto with Mike Trout (if/when healthy) keeps L.A. in the mix and makes a statement to its fans. 

The Chicago Cubs look to be a team ready to spend and get back into the hunt after six seasons of failing to get out of the NL Wild Card round. Though they're expected to make Ohtani a big offer, improving the pitching is likely the top focus this off-season, and they have outfielders for the present and the future. 

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks are reportedly fans of Soto, but it's tough to imagine the Padres moving him to any NL West rival. They lead The Field, which also includes cost-conscious contenders that could use a big bat for '24, such as the Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners, New York Mets and Tampa Bay Rays

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.