FIFA World Cup Mexico Odds - Will The Location Be Moved?

Feb 25th, 2026 2:27 PM EST

With just months until kickoff, security concerns in Mexico have quietly entered the global soccer conversation — and now, relocation of some 2026 World Cup matches is no longer an unthinkable scenario. Bookies.com developed FIFA World Cup Mexico Odds - Will The Location Be Moved? odds on Mexico games based on the current lockdowns and violence taking place involving cartels.

According to a senior official who spoke to The Athletic, FIFA has been alarmed by chaotic scenes in parts of Mexico and has warned that World Cup playoff games could become vulnerable to relocation if it cannot be swiftly assured that all participants and stakeholders will be safe.

Will The Location Be Moved?

FIFA World Cup Mexico Odds – Bookies.com

ODDS ANALYSIS

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BREAKING: FIFA issues statement monitoring Jalisco violence • CJNG cartel retaliation following El Mencho killing • Liga MX matches suspended in Guadalajara • Polymarket: 11% chance of relocation • Bookies.com odds: Remain in Mexico -150 • Opening match Mexico vs South Africa set for Estadio Azteca July 11 •

Bookies.com Odds • February 25, 2026

FIFA World Cup Mexico Odds;
Will The Location Be Moved?

Bookies.com oddsmakers have set projections on whether FIFA will relocate 2026 World Cup games from Mexico amid escalating cartel violence following the military killing of CJNG leader El Mencho.

Markets Updated Live

🏆 World Cup Kicks Off July 11

🇲🇽 3 Mexican Host Cities

Key Numbers

Games at Risk

13

Matches scheduled across all 3 Mexican host cities — Mexico City, Guadalajara & Monterrey

Opening Match

JUL 11

Mexico vs South Africa at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

Chance It Stays in Mexico

60%

Odds: -150 — FIFA has never previously relocated a World Cup match

Chance of Any Relocation

40%

Combined odds across all alternative host city scenarios

Odds Breakdown

Odds Format:

60%

Remain in
Mexico

Context & Background

What's Driving These Odds Cartel violence erupted across Mexico following the military killing of CJNG leader Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes on February 22, 2026. Gun battles between cartel forces and Mexican military have engulfed Guadalajara — one of three Mexican World Cup host cities. Liga MX matches have been suspended and U.S. tourists are sheltering in place. FIFA Mexico issued a statement it is "closely monitoring" the situation but has not relocated any matches. FIFA has never relocated a World Cup game due to force majeure — a key factor in why Mexico remains the -150 favorite to retain all games.

Methodology

Bookies.com Oddsmaking Process Bookies.com developed these odds projecting whether FIFA World Cup 2026 will relocate Mexico games based on current lockdowns and cartel violence. Odds reflect implied probability derived from market conditions, historical FIFA precedent (no prior relocations), political considerations, and the logistical feasibility of each alternative U.S. host city. Odds are subject to change as the security situation evolves. Published: February 25, 2026.

Could Matches Actually Be Moved?

Relocating World Cup fixtures would be an extraordinary move, but not without precedent in global sport.

The 2026 tournament includes 16 host cities across North America. If required, matches could theoretically be shifted to venues in the United States or Canada, both of which are viewed as lower risk from a security standpoint.

The United States alone will host the majority of matches, including the final. Cities such as Dallas, Los Angeles, and New York/New Jersey are already operating at capacity in preparation for expanded hosting responsibilities.

However, moving games would create political, logistical and commercial ripple effects:

Broadcast contracts and ticket allocations would require rapid restructuring
National-team travel plans would be altered
Mexican host cities would face significant economic losses
The optics of relocating matches away from a co-host nation would be diplomatically sensitive

Violence in Jalisco Raises Red Flags

The concerns intensified following the killing of Nemesio Oseguera-Cervantes — known as “El Mencho” — co-founder and leader of the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).

Oseguera-Cervantes was gravely injured during a military security operation and later died, sparking retaliatory violence across multiple Mexican states. According to reports, cartel members torched vehicles and businesses, scattered spikes across highways, and forced authorities to issue stay-at-home advisories in several cities — including Guadalajara.

Zapopan, located within the Guadalajara metropolitan area, is scheduled to host four group-stage matches at Estadio Akron — including two involving Mexico and a marquee clash between Uruguay and Spain.

The escalation has drawn immediate scrutiny because Guadalajara is one of three Mexican host cities for the 2026 tournament.

Mexico’s Role as Co-Host

Mexico is co-hosting the tournament alongside the United States and Canada — the first time three nations will share World Cup duties.

The tournament is scheduled to open June 11, 2026, at Mexico City’s iconic Estadio Azteca, where Mexico are slated to face South Africa in a symbolic nod to the 2010 opener.

Mexico is expected to host matches across three of the 12 groups, with the national team playing all three group-stage games on home soil.

The Guadalajara region — including Zapopan — was considered one of the tournament’s crown jewels. But the recent violence has complicated that narrative.

Also see: 2026 World Cup cities ranked by fan atmosphere

Infantino Addresses Relocation Speculation

FIFA president Gianni Infantino issued a statement addressing the situation, reinforcing FIFA’s public stance that security remains paramount.

A FIFA spokesperson in Mexico confirmed the organization is “closely monitoring the situation in Jalisco” and is “in constant communication with the authorities.”

Another spokesperson emphasized: “Safety and security remain the top priority, and FIFA has full confidence in all three host countries.”

Privately, however, officials have indicated contingency plans are part of the operational framework — especially given the expanded 48-team format and the unprecedented logistical scale of the 2026 tournament.

Even before the World Cup starts in June, Mexico is slated to host four neutral-site matches in March that will settle the final two open qualifying spots outside of Europe. Two of those matches are slated to be held in Zapopan: Jamaica vs. New Caledonia on March 26, and that winner against the Democratic Republic of the Congo on March 31. The other two inter-continental games are in Guadalupe, with Bolivia playing Suriname on March 26 and that winner facing Iraq on March 31.

A Watch-and-Wait Moment

For now, FIFA has not announced any formal changes. The message remains one of confidence — but with careful monitoring.

The coming weeks will be critical. If violence in Jalisco subsides and Mexican authorities provide credible security assurances, relocation talk will likely fade.

But if instability continues, the 2026 World Cup — set to be the largest in history — may face its first major operational test before a ball is even kicked.

One thing is clear: in a tournament spanning three countries and 48 teams, flexibility is no longer optional.

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