How to Bet Mahomes, Jackson & Brady Over/Under Passing Yards
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Patrick Mahomes led the Kansas City Chiefs to their first Super Bowl championship in 50 years. Lamar Jackson guided the Baltimore Ravens to the NFL’s best regular-season record en route to the Most Valuable Player award. Tom Brady ended a 20-year reign of terror in New England and is now the leader of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which last year ranked No. 1 in passing.
All three top-tier QBs have high hopes for the 2020 NFL season and so do fans of NFL futures betting. When it comes to passing yards, each player has different expectations.
Unibet has posted Over/Under totals on passing yards for the three marquee signal-callers. Bookies.com breaks down the lines for each and picks a side to back.
Patrick Mahomes O/U 4,550.5 Yards (-110)
Mahomes lit the world on fire with his MVP 2018 season. He passed for 5,097 yards and 50 TDs. But the Chiefs didn’t reach their ultimate goal.
In 2019, they did. In the process, Mahomes threw the ball nearly 100 fewer times for more than 1,000 fewer yards and 24 fewer TDs (in two fewer games, but still). He even ran less.
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Coach Andy Reid and Mahomes realized the team would be better served if Mahomes managed the game rather than trying to do everything himself. Expect more of the same in 2021 as they look to defend their Super Bowl championship.
All of Kansas City’s weapons also return. K.C. has the template for title glory and it’s not going to change now. If anything, the Chiefs might try to run more — they had 201 more pass attempts than run attempts last season.
PICK: This one could be close if Mahomes plays 16 games, but the Under is the safer side. One missed game and it’s an easy Under.
Lamar Jackson O/U 3,250 Yards (-110)
Jackson was an unstoppable force in 2019, accounting for 43 TDs and winning the NFL MVP in unanimous fashion. He had arguably the greatest season by a dual-threat QB in history, passing for 3,127 yards and rushing for 1,206 more.
This Over/Under suggests a similar output through the air for the Ravens superstar. There are reasons to back either side in NFL betting.
Perhaps 2019 was a perfect storm. His 66.1% completion percentage was a whopping 7.9% higher than his rookie season in 2018. He never passed for better than 59.1% in a college season. Give NFL defenses a full offseason to game plan against what worked for Jackson last season. That percentage might come down, closer to pre-MVP numbers.
That said, if NFL defenses are going to try and slow down Jackson, it’s likely to begin with ensuring he doesn’t run roughshod through them. He ranked No. 6 in the NFL in rushing — he’s a QB, folks — and he had 700 more rushing yards than any other player at his position.
The increased focus on his rushing might push his run stats down, but it also might open passing lanes. Baltimore coach John Harbaugh will adjust to what defenses bring.
PICK: Jackson’s passing stats might not be overwhelming, but he’s a winner, and he’ll adjust to keep Baltimore on top. This number is way too low. Over all the way here.
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Tom Brady O/U 4,200.5 Yards (-110)
By his own GOAT standards, Brady had a fairly brutal 2019 season. His 60.8% on completions was the third-lowest of his career, is 4,057 yards ranked as his lowest in a decade, and his 24 TDs tied for the lowest when he played all 16 games.
But he can get a fresh approach in Tampa, where he’ll have two Pro Bowl receivers and a new head coach. There are many reasons to expect a bounceback season for No. 12.
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Last year, Jameis Winston passed for 5,109 yards. Brady managed just 4,057 yards last season on only 13 fewer pass attempts. But Brady is more a winner than a stat-stuffer. He’s only thrown for 4,500-plus yards five times, and none of those seasons resulted in a Super Bowl title.
There are reasons to believe Brady won’t hit this number. He’ll be 43 and expect Coach Bruce Arians to change his style to fit Brady, not the other way around. If the Bucs are going to be winners, Brady isn’t throwing for 5,000 yards as Winston did. That said, Brady’s completion percentage should rise, and he’ll have better, bigger targets.
PICK: This number opened at 4,500 and has fallen too far. Take the Over on Brady.
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