Malik Willis Next Team Odds: 2026 NFL Free Agency Landing Spots
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The Matt LaFleur Effect meets the open market - and suddenly everybody wants a piece of Malik Willis.
Two years ago, the Tennessee Titans gave up on Willis after three disastrous starts and traded him to Green Bay for a seventh-round pick. Now, after posting a 134.6 passer rating across two seasons as Jordan Love's backup - completing 78.7% of his passes with six touchdowns and zero interceptions - the 26-year-old is positioned to land a starting job and a contract that could be worth between $20-26 million annually. The organization that adds him may even see their wins O/U increase at NFL betting apps.
Green Bay GM Brian Gutekunst has already acknowledged Willis will "have a lot of opportunities" this spring, a polite way of saying the Packers can't afford to keep him. The question isn't if Willis leaves, but where he lands and whether his success translates outside LaFleur's quarterback-friendly system.
Malik Willis 2026 Next Team Odds
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability | Head Coach |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | +250 | 28.6% | Jeff Hafley |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +300 | 25.0% | Klint Kubiak |
| New York Jets | +450 | 18.2% | Aaron Glenn |
| Minnesota Vikings | +600 | 14.3% | Kevin O'Connell |
| Carolina Panthers | +700 | 12.5% | Dave Canales |
| Arizona Cardinals | +1200 | 7.7% | Mike LaFleur |
| The Field | +800 | 11.1% | — |
Miami Dolphins (+250) - The Obvious Fit
The Situation: Tua Tagovailoa was benched after Week 14, and the Dolphins just hired two key figures from Green Bay's organization: GM Jon-Eric Sullivan and head coach Jeff Hafley. Both watched Willis up close and know exactly what he can do.
Why Willis Works: The Dolphins ran a version of Kyle Shanahan's offense under their previous regime, which shares DNA with LaFleur's scheme. Hafley understands how to maximize Willis's dual-threat ability, and Sullivan has the front office credibility to sell ownership on a $20M+ bet. Miami can also escape Tua's contract with a $99.2M dead cap hit spread over two years - painful but not impossible for a franchise desperate for QB stability.
The Risk: Willis would inherit an offense missing pieces after years of cap mismanagement. The Dolphins need to rebuild the offensive line and add skill position depth, which complicates any quarterback's transition.
Also of interest: Mike Evans Next Team Odds.
Las Vegas Raiders (+300) - The No. 1 Pick Pivot
The Situation: Pete Carroll's one-year experiment ended in 14 losses, Geno Smith led the league in sacks (55) and interceptions (17), and the Raiders hold the first overall pick. Most mock drafts have them taking Indiana's Fernando Mendoza, but there's a compelling alternate path.
Why Willis Works: New head coach Klint Kubiak runs an offense built on play-action, pre-snap motion, and quarterback mobility - all areas where Willis thrives. If Kubiak believes Willis can be a franchise QB, the Raiders could trade down from #1, stockpile assets, and use Willis as a bridge/starter while building around Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty.
The Case Against: Passing on a Heisman winner with the #1 pick for an unproven backup requires organizational courage Las Vegas hasn't shown in years. Smith is still under contract for $18.5M guaranteed in 2026, creating an awkward QB room if they sign Willis without moving Geno.
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New York Jets (+450) - The High-Risk Reclamation
The Situation: The Jets are tearing down after another lost season, Justin Fields is done, and head coach Aaron Glenn has new offensive coordinator Frank Reich installing his system. They have cap space ($90M+) and a desperate need for competent QB play.
Why Willis Works: Reich's offense doesn't align perfectly with Willis's skill set. He relies less on play-action and RPOs than LaFleur. But Willis's mobility and improving accuracy could fit if Reich adjusts. The Jets have elite weapons in Garrett Wilson and could add another first-round receiver, giving Willis legitimate support. At his projected price, he's a low-risk gamble for a franchise with nothing to lose.
The Concern: Willis thrived in Green Bay's simplified scheme with heavy play-action (36.4% of dropbacks). Reich's system is more complex and demands quicker processing. If Willis struggles reading defenses without LaFleur's structure, the Jets will be back to square one by midseason.
Speaking of the Jets: Breece Hall Next Team Odds.
Minnesota Vikings (+600) - The McCarthy Competition
The Situation: Sam Darnold left for Seattle and won a Super Bowl. J.J. McCarthy posted a 72.6 passer rating with 11 TDs and 12 INTs in 2025. The Vikings need either an upgrade or serious competition for their 2024 first-rounder.
Why Willis Works: Kevin O'Connell runs a LaFleur/Shanahan hybrid that emphasizes pre-snap motion, play-action, and quarterback athleticism. Willis would step into a scheme where he's proven successful, and he'd have Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson as targets. If McCarthy continues struggling, Willis becomes the starter by Week 6.
The Problem: Minnesota probably can't justify $20M+ for a backup, which means Willis would need a legitimate shot at the starting job. That might demoralize McCarthy before he's had a fair chance to develop, creating an ugly QB controversy O'Connell doesn't want.
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Carolina Panthers (+700) - The Bryce Young Insurance
The Situation: Bryce Young improved enough in 2025 for Carolina to pick up his fifth-year option, but he's still posting somewhat pedestrian numbers (63.6% completion, 47.7 QBR). The Panthers won the NFC South with Young, but they were still 8-9.
Why Willis Works: Head coach Dave Canales runs an offense designed for Young's skill set, which could translate well for Willis's mobility and improving accuracy. Carolina is building something with Tetairoa McMillan, Chuba Hubbard and a young defense, but they need insurance if Young regresses. Willis on a two-year, $18M deal would be low-risk QB2 insurance with QB1 upside.
The Fit Issue: The Panthers drafted Young #1 overall and just committed to his fifth-year option. Signing Willis for starter money contradicts that investment and might signal they're already hedging on their franchise QB - a bad look organizationally.
Arizona Cardinals (+1200) - The LaFleur Reunion
The Situation: Kyler Murray's future is murky after another mediocre season, and new head coach Mike LaFleur (Matt's brother) just got hired. LaFleur knows Willis's game intimately from coaching against him twice a year.
Why It's Unlikely: Murray's dead cap ($54.7M in 2026) makes cutting him near-impossible. Arizona would need to trade Kyler and convince another team to absorb his salary, which limits their options. The Cardinals also have the #3 overall pick, making the draft a better path.
The Long Shot: If LaFleur convinces management that Willis is the answer and they find a Murray trade partner, the scheme fit is perfect. Willis would step into an offense designed for his strengths with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride as weapons. But this requires multiple dominoes to fall correctly - hence the +1200 odds.
The Market Reality
Pro Football Focus projects Willis at two years, $40M with $30M guaranteed - similar to Justin Fields's deal with the Jets. ESPN's Ben Solak suggests $26M annually based on Brock Osweiler comparisons, accounting for cap inflation.
The wildcard is whether teams view Willis as a franchise QB or a high-end backup who got hot in limited action. The Matt Flynn parallels are real - another Packers backup who looked brilliant in Green Bay's system before flaming out elsewhere. But Willis is 26 with elite athleticism and years of NFL development. Someone will bet on the upside.
Free agency opens March 11, 2026. By March 13, we'll know if Willis is a $20M bridge QB or a $26M franchise savior.
Key Stats (2024-2025 with Green Bay):
- 70-of-89 passing (78.7%), 972 yards, 6 TDs, 0 INTs
- 42 carries, 261 rush yards, 3 rush TDs
- 134.6 passer rating (min. 50 attempts)
- 12.1 yards per attempt in 2025
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