New CFTC Committee Puts Wall Street, Prediction Markets — And Sportsbooks — At The Same Table

By Bill Speros

Feb 12th, 2026 5:04 PM EST

3D10WWR Canada. 25th Oct, 2025. In this photo illustration, the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) logo is seen displayed on a smartphone screen. (Credit Image: © Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images via ZUMA Press Wire) EDITORIAL USAGE ONLY! Not for Commercial USAGE!

If you needed one more sign that prediction markets aren’t going away, here it is: the feds just built them a conference room. A new CFTC Committee puts Wall Street, Prediction Markets, Crypto Bros, and Sportsbooks in the same space. Somehow, if you weren't convinced after Kalshi took more trading volume on "Bad Bunny's First Song" in the Super Bowl than the entire state of Nevada handle on the game, this should do the trick.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission Thurday launched a new Innovation Advisory Committee — and it reads less like a sleepy regulatory panel and more like a who’s-who of event trading, crypto, and online betting. Translation: the agency that regulates derivatives (yes, the same bucket that now includes Super Bowl and election contracts) is leaning in, not backing off.

And that matters for bettors, state regulators, and states attorneys general.

"When the walls come crumblin', crumblin'," the CFTC appears to be doing the knocking.

From Super Bowl Props to The White House

The CFTC, often described as the quieter cousin of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, oversees derivatives markets — futures, options, swaps and increasingly event-based contracts.

Those event contracts are the backbone of modern prediction markets. Think:

• “Who wins the Super Bowl?”
• “Who wins the White House?”
• “Will the Fed cut rates in June?”
• "What Will The Announcers Say During The Super Bow?"

Not long ago, political and sports-event contracts were on the chopping block. But the CFTC recently withdrew a prior rule that would have restricted those markets — effectively reopening the door for platforms offering event trading tied to sports and politics.

Now comes the advisory committee — and the lineup tells you everything about where this is heading.

The Prediction Market Power Players Are Inside the Room

Among the members:

• Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi
• Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket
• Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase
• Jason Robins, CEO of DraftKings
• Christian Genetski, President of FanDuel
• Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood

That’s not subtle.

Prediction market operators. Crypto exchanges. The two biggest U.S. sportsbooks. Retail trading apps. All advising the very agency that decides how event contracts are regulated.

Also in the mix: traditional exchange heavyweights like Adena Friedman of Nasdaq, David Schwimmer of London Stock Exchange Group, and Jeff Sprecher of Intercontinental Exchange.

In other words: this isn’t a niche experiment. This is mainstream finance.

FanDuel and DraftKings continue to straddle the grey space between prediction markets and legal sports books. They each remain licensed sports book operators in more than 25 states. Yet, they operate prediction markets that trade on sports-event contracts in states where they are not taking legal bets. For both platforms, that means California, Texas and Florida. Those are the most-populous states in the U.S. Neither Texas nor California offers legal sports betting. Florida has online and retail sports betting though a monopoly gaming compact with the Seminole Tribe and Hard Rock Bet.

A Federal Signal to the States

The advisory board also lands at a pivotal moment. As states attempt to challenge or restrict event-based contracts, the CFTC has signaled that these products fall under federal derivatives law — not state gambling codes.

That’s a big deal.

Prediction markets have exploded in volume over the past year. Kalshi alone combined for $914 million in trades on game and non-game related Super Bowl outcomes. Prediction markets combined for roughly $1.2 billion in trades on The Big Game. That compares to the $1.76 billion books were estimated to have handled on the game, according to the American Gaming Association.

Sportsbooks are watching closely. Some are launching their own versions. Crypto firms are circling. Retail trading apps are experimenting.

And instead of slamming the brakes, the CFTC appears to be saying: fine — but we’re going to write the rules.

Chairman Michael Selig framed it as modernization, promising clearer standards so firms know “what is allowed and what is not.” After years of regulatory gray zones, that clarity could be the biggest shift of all.

What This Means For Bettors & Traders

For the average sports bettor, here’s the bottom line:

Prediction markets are no longer operating on the fringe. They’re being integrated into the federal regulatory framework — with input from the very companies offering them.

That doesn’t mean fewer products. If anything, it suggests more structure, more legitimacy, and potentially more expansion into sports-adjacent event contracts.

The real question isn’t whether prediction markets stick around.

It’s how big they get — and whether sportsbooks, crypto exchanges, and Wall Street trading platforms eventually blur into the same thing. And what happens in all those pending court cases around the nation.

And if the CFTC’s new Innovation Advisory Committee is any indication, that convergence is already underway.

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