New York Governor Odds: Hochul Massive Favorite In Election Race

The Democrat and Republican primaries will be decided in June, as New Yorkers go to the ballot box to vote for the gubernatorial candidate that will represent their party in the general elections.

The Democrats will be banking on incumbency to extend their residency in the Governor’s mansion. They are pegged as the runaway favorites on the political betting markets, along with sitting Governor Kathy Hochul as the runaway favorite to win the Democratic primary this summer.

The Republicans are looking to upset the applecart, but the absence of a putative favorite among party insiders has the GOP installed as the hefty underdog with the betting sites. This will set up a fascinating fight in a wide-open GOP primary after a slew of candidates filed for 2022 campaigns.

Political betting markets are in full swing at various online sportsbooks, namely those that are based across the pond in Europe where betting on politics is legal. For instance, UK bookmaker Ladbrokes has the most up-to-date markets and the latest odds available covering many key races during this midterm election year, including the gubernatorial races in New York, Georgia and Texas.

New York Gubernatorial Race Winning Party

Odds courtesy of Ladbrokes as of April. 26, 2022

Ladbrokes favors the Democrats at -700 to win the general elections for New York. The New York Gubernatorial election will take place on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022.

The Republicans face an uphill battle. They last held the seat in 2002, when then-Gov. George Pataki clinched a third term in office. Since Pataki’s reign ended in 2006, the governor’s mansion has seen only Democrats in residence – from Eliot Spitzer (2007), David Paterson (2008) to Andrew Cuomo (2011) and Kathy Hochul (2021).

Political betting is not legal in the United States so you won't see these odds on New York betting apps, but it is over in Europe and many other countries, where betting sites offer odds like these, known as “specials.” The news media often cites these numbers, and should American operators ever offer them, it would be a huge market, especially with New York betting sites live and legal as of January 2022.

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Democrats Banking On Incumbency

Hochul made history when she became the first woman to hold the office following Andrew Cuomo’s fall from grace as a three-term governor of New York last year. Her short stint in office notwithstanding, winning the 2022 election would see her cement that historic step by becoming the first woman “elected” into the governor’s mansion.

Hochul is tipped as the prohibitive favorite at -3300 to win the Democratic primary in June. Her biggest threats are Tom Suozzi and Jumaane Williams, although their respective long odds of +2000 and +5000 come across as non-threatening.

Cuomo is currently included on this political betting list of potential Democratic nominees, but he has yet to file for a 2022 gubernatorial campaign. The embattled former governor has time to get a spot on the June 28 primary or he could choose to file as an independent.

2022 New York Governor Democratic Nominee Odds

Odds accurate as of April 26, 2022

Republicans, The Long-Shot Choice

Thus, all eyes will be on the GOP primary in June. Long Island congressman Lee Zeldin is the presumptive front-runner to win the Republican nod, but he’s not a sure bet in a primary race that’s wide open according to the political punditocracy. Former Republican gubernatorial candidate Rob Astorino, who went up against Cuomo in 2014, has filed a 2022 campaign, along with Andrew Giuliani (son of former mayor Rudy Giuliani), businessman Derrick Gibson and former hedge fund executive Harry Wilson, to name a few.

It’s unclear which of these candidates (or one of the other hopefuls) is going to secure the GOP’s backing. This uncertainty is highlighted by the sports betting sites with GOP party odds that reflect a low probability of winning in New York.

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