Republicans haven’t won a governor’s race in New York in over two decades and based on the trajectory of the New York Gubernatorial odds market at prominent UK Bookmaker Ladbrokes, the GOP’s chance of bucking the losing trend this fall is looking like a pipedream.

Incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul is leading the Democratic charge in the Empire State and according to the political betting markets, the Democrats are nailed on at -1400 to win the 2022 Midterm Elections in November.

Republican hopeful Lee Zeldin has an outside shot to steal the governor’s seat, but with the GOP’s odds trending negatively since spring, he’ll need a tsunami wave of Republican support to turn this market on its head.

Betting on politics is not legal in the United States, but it is across the Atlantic pond where politics odds also known as specials are regularly offered. UK bookmaker Ladbrokes has the most up-to-date markets and the latest odds available covering many key races during this midterm election year, including the gubernatorial races in New York, Georgia and Texas.

New York Gubernatorial Race Winning Party

Odds courtesy of Ladbrokes as of Aug. 19, 2022

The Governor Election in New York will be decided during the 2022 US Midterm Elections that are scheduled to take place on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022.

The last time the Republicans took up residence in the NY Governor’s mansion was 2002 when Gov. George Pataki won a third term in office. Pataki’s 12-year reign began after he won the 1994 US Midterm Elections, defeating three-term incumbent Gov. Mario Cuomo – father of the recently disgraced and also three-term Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

The Democrats have won the last four elections in a row beginning with Eliot Spitzer, who won the governor’s race in the 2006 US Midterms.

Lieutenant Gov. Kathy Hochul was catapulted into the governor’s seat following Cuomo’s resignation last year amid misconduct and sexual harassment allegations.

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Hochul Wins Democratic Primary

Although Hochul is barely a year into the job, she easily clinched her party’s nomination in the Democratic primary in June. She defeated challenges from Jumaane Williams and U.S. Rep. Tom Suozzi to move into the final stage of the gubernatorial race.

This will be Hochul’s first attempt to win an election on her own merit. She has a considerable advantage over her Republican challenger Zeldin thanks to incumbency. That’s evident in the odds market across those betting sites and their corresponding betting apps where political betting markets are accessible.

Another advantage that underscores Hochul’s odds is the voting demographic, which is heavily skewed towards the Democratic party in New York – there are at least twice as many registered Democrats compared to Republicans.

Zeldin Wins Republican Primary

U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin won the GOP nod in June, beating challenges from former White House aide Andrew Giuliani, former Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino and businessman Harry Wilson quite comfortably. The Long Island Congressman is known to be a staunch supporter of former President Donald Trump and he was one of several politicians that voted against certifying the 2020 US Elections.

Recent polls show Zeldin closing the gap on Hochul, but not nearly enough to swing the voting the Republicans way.

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