Senate Races 2020 Odds Tracker: Dems Favored to Win Control
The Democrats' odds to retake the Senate improved on Friday, with UK bookmaker Ladbrokes moving the Republicans to -110 to have fewer than 50 seats after the November election.
In early June, those odds were +150, though they had slipped to +100 a week ago. The GOP's odds of maintaining a majority swelled to +163 from +150. In early June you would have gotten even-money +100.
That means, not only are Democrats favored to win the White House, they're favored to win both the Senate and House.
The bookmaker also has odds on a slew of highly watched Senate races, and Democrats are strong favorites to flip seats in Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina, while Montana and Iowa are toss-ups. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky is a -500 favorite to retain his seat (though lose his title), however now that his opponent is set, we could see a shift.
Updated July 7
Additionally, Georgia's voters will decide two Senate seats held by Republicans in what is starting to look like a swing state for the general election. We may see odds on at least one of those races – Jon Ossoff vs. Republican incumbent David Perdue – in the near future. Polls have shown a tight race. The second Georgia race is an “all-candidates” special election to fill the senate seat of Johnny Isakson, who resigned Dec. 31, 2019 and was replaced by Kelly Loeffler. If no candidate receives 50% +1, Georgia's voters get a January 5, 2021 runoff – a strong possibility.
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All of the races listed below are Republican held seats. Democratic incumbent Doug Jones faces a tough re-election in Alabama but no odds are listed as his opponent has yet to be decided and could have a significant impact on how bookmakers view the race. Michigan Sen. Gary Peters, also a Democrat, is a -500 favorite to retain his seat.
Arizona Senate Race Odds
In a state that continues to shift Democratic (Joe Biden is favored to beat President Donald Trump here), former astronaut Mark Kelly looks like a good bet to unseat unpopular Sen. Martha McSally, who lost in 2018 to a Democrat only to get appointed to fill John McCain’s seat. How unpopular is McSally? So much that Trump’s reelection team is concerned she’s dragging him down. An early June poll had Kelly up 50-37.
Colorado Senate Race Odds
Popular former Gov. John Hickenlooper defeated former statehouse speaker Andrew Romanoff in the June 30 primary and will challenge Sen. Cory Gardner in November. Hickenlooper led Gardner by 18 points in a May poll, but we have yet to see if there will be any lasting impact from a ruling that he violated state ethics laws – complaints he says are an attempt to smear his reputation.
Iowa Senate Race Odds
A mid-June poll show Democratic challenger and political neophyte Theresa Greenfield narrowly leading incumbent Joni Ernst in a bid to grab this senate seat, and the odds shifted from favoring Ernst to a pick'em. Iowa is increasingly looking like a battleground state as Trump’s standing slips, which makes this a fascinating race to watch in the months ahead.
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Kansas Senate Race Odds
The primary election is scheduled for Aug. 4. Republicans must choose a replacement to run for the seat of retiring Sen. Pat Roberts. A crowded field could open the door for former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who is unpopular in the state and lost the 2018 governor’s race to a Democrat. Likely Democratic nominee Barbara Bollier is a slight favorite in general election polls against the top Republicans but that could change once the race is finalized.
Kentucky Senate Race Odds
Considered a bit of a longshot, though Kentucky did elect a Democratic governor in 2018 amid the blue wave. It may take another one on election day. The Democratic senate primary was June 23 with former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath narrowly holding off a challenge from state Rep. Charles Booker, who is more progressive. McGrath has essentially been campaigning against McConnell all along and an early June poll showed a dead heat. If McGrath were to back term limits, she would enjoy a strong lead, according to the poll.
Maine Senate Race Odds
Republican Sen. Susan Collins was a target for Democrats looking to flip a seat even before she supported Trump in both the Kavanaugh hearings and impeachment. She may fancy herself as “moderate,” but voters in her state might not be buying that anymore. The state has a July 14 Democratic primary, but the favorite, Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon, has outraised Collins and has a strong lead in polls.
Montana Senate Race Odds
Popular Democratic Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, who never caught fire as a presidential hopeful, is challenging Republican Sen. Steve Daines and has been outraising him so far in campaign contributions. There hasn’t been a ton of polling done, but a May sampling showed Bullock up on Daines, 46-39. This could be the tipping point on election day.
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North Carolina Senate Race Odds
Democratic challenger and former State Senator Cal Cunningham is challenging unpopular incumbent Thom Tillis. Super PACs from both parties are pouring money into what is also a presidential battleground state. Polls show this race within the margin of error, but bookmakers see it more as a lean Democratic.
South Carolina Senate Race Odds
Odds just posted on what might be an interesting race in South Carolina between Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham and Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison, where a poll in late May showed the two tied.
Flipping this seat will depend on a handful of factors, including whether Graham has become too Trumpy for South Carolina voters. The Lincoln Project has savaged Graham already for his flip-flop adulation of Trump, using the Senator's own words from his failed 2016 Presidential campaign to underscore Graham's transformation.
South Carolina was less red in the 2018 midterms than it was in 2016, and if there is a blue tidal wave come November, it could be enough to sink Graham. The next wave of polls should prove interesting.