It is the eve of the 2022 US Midterm Elections and with less than 24 hours left before voters go to the ballot box on Tuesday, Nov. 8, we check in with Ladbrokes sportsbook for the latest 2024 US Presidential odds.

Historically, midterms have served as a barometer for the next presidential election, acting as a quasi-referendum on the party that is in power. And true to form, this year’s midterms are no exception, with the battle for both houses of Congress shaping up to be an epic, high-stakes contest between the in-power Democrats and the in-waiting Republicans.

What happens this week, therefore, is going to reverberate through the political betting landscape and that impact could be felt all the way to the White House. As such, we’re weighing in on the pre-midterm politic odds, as they are right now for the presidential elections in two years, and we’ll be back in the aftermath (and from then onwards) to update this market and track the movement with the sports betting apps.

Political betting is not legal in the United States, but it is fair game with our neighbours across the pond. UK Bookmakers are known to offer US politics odds like these, known as “specials.” The news media often cites these numbers, and should American operators ever offer them, it would be a huge market, especially with New York and New Jersey sports betting sites.

US Midterm Elections Odds Market

Odds via Ladbrokes as of Oct. 11, 2022; political betting is not legal in the United States and not offered by legal sports betting apps

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2022 House of Representatives Betting Odds

Republicans started with hefty odds to win the House of Representatives in the 2022 US Midterm Elections. In July, online sports betting sites and their corresponding betting apps had the GOP odds at -800 to win a House majority on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022.

Gains in the 2020 US Elections, which saw the Republicans close the gap on Democrats in the House from 35 to just nine seats, emboldened the party and, simultaneously, gave rise to bullish markets in their favor. Those held strong until recently.

The GOP is still the odds-on favorite to take back the House, make no mistake. But with odds trimmed down to -600 as we look at the latest political odds trading, it’s a perceptible decline that’s worth taking into account.

2022 Senate Election Betting Odds

The biggest hit to the GOP’s midterm hopes comes in the race to win control of the Senate. Going into the summer, the Republicans were tipped as the -400 favorites to win more than 50 seats. The odds to win exactly 50 seats were set to +500 and to win less than 50 seats were priced at +600.

Following the 2020 US Elections, the Republicans and Democrats emerged tied with 50 seats apiece. But the Democrats had the tiebreaking vote via vice president Kamala Harris.

Simple math dictates the Republicans need to gain only one additional seat to seize control of the Senate this November. The fact that the market has shifted against the Republicans here, dropping their odds to win more than 50 seats from -400 to +110, is quite dramatic. It’s a potentially telling sign that bettors have lost faith in the GOP’s ability to win a majority that until a few months ago looked so certain.

Why has the market turned against the Republicans? There is no simple answer, really. But it does appear that the Democrats are benefiting from a series of events that have hurt the GOP’s chances.

The fallout following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade is being identified by the punditocracy as one of the likeliest causes of the move against the GOP in these markets. The landmark piece of legislation that made access to abortion a federal right in the United States was overturned on June 24, 2022, by the Supreme Court, which boasts a 6-3 conservative majority.

The Supreme Court’s decision acts as a stark reminder of the power the Republicans still wield even without control of the White House. And that hasn’t gone down well with voters across the country, especially in Democratic-led states.

Senate Odds By State

Another catalyst for the market’s pullback is the ongoing investigation(s) into former President Donald Trump, heightened by the FBI’s raid on his Mar-A-Lago residence in August. These developments are seen to weaken the GOP’s chances, especially of those candidates that have sought or received Trump’s endorsement during the election process.

The question is whether the market has it right. After all, markets are only speculative. So, will the Republicans win the House? Or will the Democrats defy the odds and pull off the upset? Equally, will the GOP turn the market on its head in the Senate race?

Studies have shown that voters look for a degree of balance in government. With the Democrats holding the White House under the increasingly unpopular President Joe Biden and a series of challenges that haven’t been seen in decades facing the country, one can’t discount the Republicans from making gains in either race.

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