What Were Best & Worst MLB Teams to Bet on This Past Month?
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With the first half of the 2019 MLB season in the books, we have a pretty good idea of which teams we can trust and which we should probably avoid from a baseball betting betting perspective.
As we move into August, there’s added intrigue as now the contenders have loaded up at the trade deadline to bolster their lineup while a number of other teams could be significantly weakened.
Before we look forward to August, though, let’s take a look back and see which teams have been the best and worst to bet on this season through July:
Most Profitable: Minnesota Twins (Money Won: +$1591)
The Twins have been one of the biggest surprises of the 2019 MLB season with a 66-41 record. Minnesota, which leads the American League Central division by three games, has recorded an MLB-best 35 road wins so far this season. They are 35-20 in road games for +1380.
The Twins own one of the highest scoring offenses in the majors with Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz, Jorge Polanco and Eddie Rosario leading the way. Minnesota has also received just enough quality pitching to remain in contention for a division title.
The Twins had mostly been a middling team since the start of the second half – 5-7 in their first 12 games – but they’ve now won five of their last six contests.
From a baseball odds money perspective, the Twins have a sizable lead on the San Francisco Giants (+1515) for the most profitable team to bet on in the majors. Looking even closer at the list, there is a major drop from Minnesota’s +$1591 profit to the Los Angeles Dodgers’ +$1237 mark, which is the third-best in the majors.
Least Profitable: Detroit Tigers (Money: -$2687)
We're proud to have been your first home. Thank you, Nick, for the positive impact you've made in Detroit since 2013. pic.twitter.com/UNNqv7buQn— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) July 31, 2019
As is the case with Minnesota likely continuing to deliver sports betting profits, Detroit isn’t a very attractive team from a sports betting perspective now or looking forward.
The Tigers are 32-72, the worst record in the majors. Detroit’s -$2687 net for the season is substantially worse than the -$1780 mark that the Boston Red Sox have recorded or the -$1667 posted by the Kansas City Royals in the third-worst spot.
This has been a good team to fade – even as the oddsmakers jack up the price to bet against them. They finished July losing 13 of their last 16 and after dealing away Nick Castellanos and Shane Greene at the trade deadline, it’s hard to see things getting any better.
Best Over Bet in 2019: Seattle Mariners (O/U 67-38-5)
While the Mariners have trended towards the negative from a sports betting perspective with a 47-63 record, they have consistently been one of the most profitable teams to bet on when picking overs. The combination of 549 runs scored on offense and an inflated 5.17 ERA given up by Seattle’s pitchers this season has made their games go over at about a 2:1 ratio.
It’s worth noting that their offense has cooled off a lot and you might want to temper hammering the over. They scored just 4.2 runs per game in July, which was the third-fewest. That’s in stark contrast to the 5.5 runs per game they averaged in June (fifth-best).
Best Under Bet in 2019: Cincinnati Reds (O/U 39-64-3)
On the flip side of the totals perspective, the Reds have been the best team in the majors to bet the under on. It’s hit in 64 of Cincinnati’s 106 games. They started the month with an incredible streak where 11 straight games went under the number (and 15 of their first 16).
What was bizarre with the Reds in July is that while they scored 123 runs in the month (12th overall), 53 came in four games. Obviously, those went over but they only scored 3.5 runs per game in their other 20 July contests. That’s a big reason why they played so many unders.
The Reds rank in the bottom 10 of the majors in runs scored but fifth in fewest runs allowed. That’s a pretty good recipe to ensure the trend of Cincinnati producing unders continues the rest of the way this season.