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3 Surprising NFL Value Bets As 2020 Season Hits Midpoint

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 5 mins

3 Surprising NFL Value Bets As 2020 Season Hits Midpoint

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Eight weeks into the season the Miami Dolphins have a better record than the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys, and the Washington Football Team is 2-5 and one game out of the lead in the NFC East. Who saw that coming?

There are always surprises in NFL betting, but that also means there are values to be found on the NFL futures market. Whether it’s in the NFL MVP odds or Super Bowl odds, there are gems worth unearthing for a big payout.

Here are three huge underdogs on the NFL futures market that I really like as we hit the midpoint of this very unusual NFL season.

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49ers To Win NFC +1600 (Unibet)
Chargers To Make Playoffs+2000 ( FanDuel )
Alvin Kamara — Most Valuable Player+6600 ( DraftKings )

49ers to Win NFC (+1600)

The 49ers (4-4) are in last place in a brutal NFC West and just about every playmaker on each side of the ball is on the shelf. More than a third of the team is on the injury report. But perhaps that’s the point for the reigning NFC champions.

San Francisco has been piecemealing a team together each week, and not only is it .500, it’s ranked 12th in total offense and sixth in defense. it is one of just two teams to rank in the top 15 in passing offense and defense, and rushing offense and defense (Packers).

3 Surprising NFL Value Bets As 2020 Season Hits Midpoint 1

Jimmy Garoppolo, Raheem Mostert, Jalen Hurd and George Kittle will all be back for the offense — eventually. So will Richard Sherman on defense.

It won’t be easy getting to the playoffs, but an 8-8 record might do it, and the 49ers can get to .500. If it does, San Francisco might have all hands on deck for another run. In a wide-open NFC, these are the best odds of any true contender. Find the best odds for the 49ers in the NFC at Unibet.

Chargers to Make Playoffs (+2000)

The Chargers are just 2-6 and justly have high odds to get to the postseason. But consider how they got to 2-6. All six defeats featured a massive choke by the coaches, the defense or both. They fell in OT to the Chiefs and Saints, with single-digit collapses vs. the Panthers, Buccaneers and Broncos. The last four games, the Chargers have blown leads of 16 points or more in all four.

3 Surprising NFL Value Bets As 2020 Season Hits Midpoint 2

But the hardest part of their schedule is over. Of L.A.’s final eight games, six or seven are quite winnable, if not all eight. It gets the Raiders twice and the Broncos once more — teams the Chargers likely will need to get past for a playoff berth.

They have tough games at Buffalo and at Kansas City, but the others (vs. the Dolphins, Jets, Patriots and Falcons) are winnable. With the NFL’s second-ranked offense and a solid-enough No. 18 defense, the Chargers could storm to an 8-8 record. In the expanded playoff format of 2020, that might be enough, especially with tiebreakers. Lock in the highest Chargers playoff odds at FanDuel.

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Alvin Kamara — Most Valuable Player (+6600)

Quarterbacks win MVP awards. That’s just how it’s been for a while. Since 2007, only one non-QB took the award — Adrian Peterson of the Vikings in 2012, and he needed to rush for 2,097 yards on a ridiculous 6.0 average.

But Kamara may set his own benchmarks this season. Kamara has 431 yards rushing in seven games (five starts), averaging 5.0 per carry. He could very well get to 1,000 yards. And he might blow past that mark as a receiver. He already has 55 receptions for 556 yards on 66 targets.

3 Surprising NFL Value Bets As 2020 Season Hits Midpoint 3

He’s on pace to haul in 125 catches for 1,270 yards and set an all-time record in receptions and receiving yards by an RB. He could finish with close to 2,400 in total yards. It’s happened just two other times in history.

Can he do it? Drew Brees’ seeming inability to throw downfield anymore gives Kamara a massive boost. Kamara will need Seahawks QB Russell Wilson to come back down to earth and Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes to have a statistical slipup or two down the stretch. But you won’t find higher odds on a better contender. Get Kamara for the highest odds right now at DraftKings.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.