Roethlisberger Record Against Spread Doesn't Reflect Success
Bill Speros | 6 mins
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Betting on Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger each week throughout his NFL career has not been the most effective of investments – at least for those outside the Rooney family.
How much money would you have had made betting $100 each week on Roethlisberger as a pro? He is 133-116-6 overall against the spread, including the postseason, in his 255 career games. So after more than 16 full seasons in the pros, you would only be up $1,530 after backing Ben with a Benjamin each week. We include a -110 line for each point spread in our tally, which is the industry standard for NFL betting.
Roethlisberger's career winning percentage ATS is only 52.1%. That is below the waterline for any respectable handicapper or bettor and fails to match with the NFL’s money-winning elite.
SUPER BOWL 56 ODDS: Compare odds for the 2022 Super Bowl here
Not all point spreads are created equally. For our research, we used the Las Vegas consensus ATS numbers posted at Pro Football Reference for each game as our guidepost.
The investment the Steelers have made in Roethlisberger on the field has not come cheaply. He has earned $253,286,864 during his pro career, according to Spotrac. Roethlisberger has won 169 games, including 13 in the postseason, and two Super Bowls. He is 12-10 ATS in the playoffs. All but two of his 255 NFL appearances have been starts.
Those two Lombardi Trophies are what count the most for citizens of Steelers Country and are easily worth their weight in Bitcoin. Pittsburgh has won six Super Bowl rings in its illustrious history. The Steelers are tied with the Patriots for second place all time behind Team Tom Brady, who now has seven.
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Steelers Still Backing Ben – Just Not As Much
The Steelers and Roethlisberger, their franchise quarterback since 2004, have agreed to remain together for the 2021 season. A deal announced Thursday will reportedly pay Roethlisberger $14 million in the 2021 season, down from the $19 million he was projected to earn. Roethlisberger’s deal before this move called for a staggering cap hit of $41,250,000 this season.
Ben Roethlisberger willingly reduced his pay to $14M from $19M in this final year of his contract and spread the cash payment through 2022, per source. It lowered the cap hit by over $15M, all so the team can make the right moves to be as competitive as possible this season.— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 4, 2021
The news did little to move the Steelers in futures markets. Pittsburgh is +3000 to win Super Bowl 56 at Points Bet and +1400 to win the AFC Championship at FanDuel. The Steelers are the third choice to win the AFC North at +280 on FanDuel’s website, while the Ravens are +100 and Browns +200.
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Given the quarterback earthquakes that have already rattled the NFL landscape this winter, Roethlisberger proved to be the best option for the Steelers. Matt Stafford, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz will be wearing new jerseys in September. Philip Rivers retired. Drew Brees has done everything but make his exit official. Quarterbacks Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson have been the subject of reports in which they either demanded trades or outlined teams for which they would be willing to play.
A Look At Roethlisberger’s Numbers ATS
Roethlisberger’s 2020’s numbers were not a problem for Pittsburgh. He completed 65.6% of his attempts and threw for 3,803 yards and 33 touchdowns with just 10 interceptions. The Steelers ripped off 11 straight wins to start the season before their defense was beset by injury. It eventually evaporated against the Cleveland Browns in the Wild Card round.
Here is a look Roethlisberger’s year-by-year record ATS throughout his NFL career:
* - Won Super Bowl
The most profitable season for would-be Roethlisberger bettors was 2005, when he went 11-5 ATS. The Steelers were 7-5 overall after 12 games before they surged to nab the final seed in the AFC Wild Card race. Pittsburgh ran the table in the postseason, winning and covering all four games away from home. The Steelers beat Seattle 21-10 in Super Bowl 40 and easily covered as 4-point favorites.
Three years later, the Steelers rallied to clip the Cardinals 27-23 in that Super Bowl 43 thriller at Tampa's Raymond James Stadium. But Pittsburgh failed to cover as -6.5 favorites. In Super Bowl 45, Roethlisberger and the Steelers were 3-point underdogs and lost 31-25 to the Green Bay Packers.
Roethlisberger Lags Behind Brady, Mahomes ATS
Roethlisberger trails the biggest names in the NFL when it comes to winning against the spread. Brady is 201-135-8 ATS in his career after his outright win and cover at -3.5 in Super Bowl 55. His overall winning percentage ATS after 19 full seasons in the NFL is a solid 58.4%.
Wagering $100 on Brady weekly during his career as part of your NFL betting strategy would leave you up $5,940 using our formula, but it has taken 344 starts to get there.
Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes is 31-21-2 ATS since his 2017 debut and has a stout 57.4 winning percentage. Mahomes bettors are up $900 for their efforts over his career using our formula following the Chiefs’ 31-9 loss to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl 55. But that's just after 55 career games, 200 fewer than Roethlisberger.
Hometown fans of Pittsburgh and the haters from Philly have been allowed to legally bet in Pennsylvania on or against Roethlisberger since 2018. They might want to consider looking at Brady or Mahomes in 2021.
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