How Much Money Would You Make Betting On Tom Brady Every Week?
Bill Speros | 19 mins
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The 2021 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the first team in the NFL free agency era to bring back all 22 starters after winning an NFL championship. Because of that, and many other reasons, NFL betting experts and oddsmakers like Tom Brady and the Bucs to return to the Super Bowl this year, and for him to make a real run at Super Bowl Ring No. 8.
This is the latest story in our series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. So how well has Brady performed against NFL spreads in his career, and how much money would you have won betting on him each week of his first-ballot Pro Football Hall Of Fame career?
The Bucs sputtered early last season as Brady and head coach Bruce Arians struggled to get on the same digital page of the playbook. The Bucs were 3-2 and found themselves on the brink of missing the postseason after falling to 7-5 with a loss to the Chiefs on Nov. 29.
The Bucs used their late bye week to streamline their offense. They haven’t loss since, ripping off four in a row to close the regular season and four more wins in the postseason, including three wins on the road.
Backing Brady A Winning Proposition
Super Bowl 55 marked Brady's 10th appearance in the NFL title game. He is 7-3 overall and 5-5 against the spread. The Bucs were 3-point underdogs in claiming the outright 31-9 victory over the Chiefs at Tampa’s Raymond James Stadium on Feb. 7. The win left Brady 201-135-8 ATS in 344 career starts, including the postseason. Brady is also 10-4 straight-up in his 14 conference title game appearances, 13 of which came with New England, and 9-5 ATS.
Using our system of betting $100 on Brady ATS each week of his career with the industry standard -110 line per point-spread bet available on most betting sites and betting apps, those who backed the Patriots and Bucs each week during Brady’s career so far are up $4,770.90 since TB12 took over for the injured Drew Bledsoe in 2001.
Brady’s overall winning percentage ATS: 58.4%. Brady has played in 346 NFL games, but two of those are not counted here since he was not listed as the starter beforehand.
Not all point spreads are created equally. For our research, we used the Las Vegas consensus ATS numbers posted at Pro Football Reference for each of his games as our guidepost.
Brady continues to defy both Father Time and the nay-sayers. The now-44-year-old QB dispatched Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes in the 2020 postseason, and was an underdog at DraftKings and other books before each postseason victory. Remarkably durable during his extended career, Brady missed the rest of the 2008 season after being knocked out early in Week 1 with a torn ACL. Brady has never missed another start before or since due to injury.
The Patriots were a mind-boggling 16-point favorite that sunny afternoon in Foxboro, Massachusetts, before losing 17-10 to Kansas City. That game is included in our tally since Brady was the starter and the main reason for that insanely high line.
What To Expect From Tom Brady In 2021
Oddsmakers have slotted the Bucs as the top team in the NFC. According to the latest Super Bowl odds, Tampa Bay is priced at +650 with FanDuel ➜ to win it all. Meanwhile, FanDuel also has the Bucs at +300 to win the NFC ➜, and -185 to win the NFC South ➜. The Chiefs are favored at DraftKings and elsewhere to win the Super Bowl at +500.
We like the Bucs to repeat as Super Bowl champs. The SB56 and NFC title wagers are solid value plays at the moment.
Let’s take a quick look at the projected 2021 win totals and playoff odds for Brady and the Bucs. All bets in these two categories are voided if the Bucs do not play a full 17-game NFL schedule.
|Over 12 Wins||-110 at DraftKings ➜|
|Under 12 Wins||-110 at DraftKings ➜|
|Over 11.5 Wins||-150 at FanDuel ➜|
|Under 11.5 Wins||+125 at FanDuel ➜|
|Make Playoffs||Yes||-650 at FanDuel ➜|
|No||+500 at DraftKings ➜|
Odds via FanDuel ➜ and DraftKings ➜, and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings vs FanDuel review for the latest comparison on the two sportsbooks.
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There’s been some movement downward on the projected total number of victories for the Bucs this season. The over on 11.5 wins at FanDuel is a bit pricey. The Bucs have the fourth easiest schedule in the NFL this season, based on their opponents’ combined 2020 records.
Tampa Bay went 11-5 last year in settling for an NFC wild card. Brady, the coaching staff and the offense have had an entire championship season run as prep for this year. The Bucs have some challenging road opponents outside the division, including games at the Rams, Washington and an apocalyptic showdown at Gillette Stadium against Brady’s team of 20 years, the Patriots, on Oct. 3.
The games at LA and New England are back-to-back in weeks three and four. There is a real chance the Bucs could be 2-2 after leaving New England. But the only potentially insurmountable challenges on the schedule after that fall trip to Greater Boston are the game at Washington and a home contest against the Bills on Dec. 12.
Go with the over on 12 wins at -110 at DraftKings ➜ for the Bucs in 2021. Tampa Bay will make the playoffs but at -650 with FanDuel ➜, it's a poor long-term play.
Tom Brady 2021 Futures & Prop Bets To Watch
Here are some related NFL futures and prop bets featuring Brady, and how best to play them this season.
Tom Brady Passing TDs
Here are the odds on total passing touchdowns for Brady this season:
|Tom Brady Passing TDs||Odds|
|Over 36.5||-115 at DraftKings ➜|
|Under 36.5||-115 at DraftKings ➜|
Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review for more information.
Brady rolled through the second half of the 2020 season. He finished with 4,633 yards passing and 40 TDs against just 10 INTs. Brady hit on 65.7% of his 610 attempts.
Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate, and Antonio Brown are all legit Red Zone/End Zone targets. Those four players combined for 31 TDs last season. And they’re all back in 2021.
Take the over on Brady throwing 36.5 TD passes at -115 with DraftKings ➜ this year.
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Tom Brady Passing Yards
Here are the odds on total passing yards for Brady this season:
|Over 4,750.5 Yards||-130 at DraftKings ➜|
|Under 4,750.5 Yards||+100 at DraftKings ➜|
Brady is finally getting the respect he deserves from oddmakers in this category. Mahomes is the only QB in the league with a higher projected total. Again, the Bucs are loaded on both sides of the ball.
Brady is on a mission this season – what else is new? Back Brady to go over 4,750.5 yards passing at -130 at DraftKings ➜ this season. With a 17-game schedule, you’re getting a small discount over last season. Take it.
Tom Brady Breaks NFL Passing Record In Week 4
Here are the odds for Brady to break the all-time NFL passing yards record during his Week 4 game against the Patriots at New England:
|Brady Breaks Record||Odds|
|Yes||+250 at DraftKings ➜|
|No||-200 at DraftKings ➜|
Brady needs just 1,154 passing yards and 364 completions to become the career NFL leader in each category. Last season in Tampa, Brady averaged 289.6 yards passing per game. If he matches that number for the first four games of 2021, he’ll break the all-time NFL record in Week 4 against the Patriots in Foxboro with four yards to spare.
The Bucs open at home against Dallas and Atlanta (expect Brady to stockpile yards in those two games) before visiting the Rams.
Take Brady at +250 at DraftKings ➜ to break the all-time NFL passing yards record during his Week 4 showdown against the Patriots.
NFL Quarterbacks ATS
This is the latest story in our summer-long series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. You can see how Brady compares to other QBs here:
Patrick Mahomes | Dak Prescott | Aaron Rodgers | Lamar Jackson | Jared Goff | Kyler Murray | Carson Wentz | Josh Allen | Cam Newton | Teddy Bridgewater | Drew Lock | Daniel Jones | Ryan Fitzpatrick | Ryan Tannehill | Derek Carr | Tua Tagovailoa | Trevor Lawrence | Matt Ryan | Sam Darnold | Joe Burrow | Baker Mayfield | Kirk Cousins | Justin Herbert | Matthew Stafford