How Profitable Is It Betting On Patrick Mahomes Every Week?
Bill Speros | 19 mins
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Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes II enters the 2022 NFL betting season with stratospheric expectations.
They’ll be even more intense with the debut of sports betting in Kansas on Sept. 1.
But the Chiefs and Mahomes are on a troubling trajectory entering the season. Kansas City won Super Bowl 54, took the AFC title before losing Super Bowl 55, and then fell short in the AFC Championship Game at home to Cincinnati in January. They watched Super Bowl 56 on TV along with 30 other NFL teams.
The Chiefs finished 14-6 overall in their 20 games played last season, but went just 10-10 against the spread. At one point last season, the Chiefs had covered just five NFL spreads in their previous 19 games. Bettors should be wary of large lines on the side of Kansas City, especially with the onset of betting in the Sunflower State this NFL season.
So how well have Mahomes and Kansas City performed ATS in his career, and how much money would you have won betting on him each week?
Backing Mahomes A Winning Proposition
Mahomes is 41-31-2 against the spread in his NFL career, all with the Chiefs. That’s a sizable dip from his 58-16 record overall. These numbers include his 11 postseason games and KC’s 31-20 win and cover over the 49ers in Super Bowl 54, in which he was game MVP.
Using our system of betting $100 on Mahomes ATS each week of his career with the industry standard -110 line per point-spread bet available on most betting sites and betting apps, those who backed the Chiefs each week are up $626.90 since Mahomes’ first start in the final week of the 2017 season.
Not all spreads are created equally. In this instance we are using records against the spread for each game Mahomes has started, according to Pro Football Reference.
This leaves Mahomes 55.4% ATS in his career. In terms of active QBs with more than 50 starts, Tom Brady is first. Brady is 58.1% ATS including the playoffs. Those who backed TB12 each start of his career are up $4,779.80 using our formula in his 363 starts.
What To Expect From Mahomes In 2022
The Chiefs are a consensus pick to win the AFC West, and among the AFC and Super Bowl 57 favorites on all top sports betting apps. The Chiefs are priced at +1000 with DraftKings ➜ to win Super Bowl 57.
Meanwhile, FanDuel has the Chiefs at +500 to win the AFC ➜, and DraftKings has them at +175 to win the AFC West. If you’re confident in the Chiefs escaping the AFC West in one piece, their price at +500 to win the AFC Championship is a good value right now.
Let’s take a quick look at the projected 2022 win totals and playoff odds for Mahomes and the Chiefs. All bets in these categories are valid whether or not the Chiefs play a 17-game NFL schedule. Kansas City’s consensus projected win total is 10.5 this season, down from 12.5 last year.
|Over 10.5 Wins||-115 at FanDuel ➜|
|Under 10.5 Wins||+100 at DraftKings ➜|
|Make Playoffs||Yes||-210 at DraftKings ➜|
|No||+180 at FanDuel ➜|
Odds via FanDuel ➜ and DraftKings, ➜ and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings vs FanDuel review for the latest comparison on the two sportsbooks.
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RELATED: Check Out Our NFL Week 1 Best Bets & Picks To Back
Go with the under on 10.5 wins at +100 at DraftKings ➜ for the Chiefs in 2022. KC will make the playoffs but their out-of-division opponents include Buffalo, the lone team with better odds to win the AFC, the defending AFC champion Bengals, the Super Bowl champion Rams, Brady and the Buccaneers at Tampa Bay, and the Cardinals in Week 1 on the road.
Patrick Mahomes 2022 Futures & Prop Bets To Watch
Here are some related NFL futures and prop bets featuring Mahomes, and how best to play them this season.
Here are the 2022 NFL MVP odds. Aaron Rodgers won the award for the second straight season in 2021:
|NFL MVP Winner||Odds|
|Josh Allen||+650 at DraftKings ➜|
|Tom Brady||+850 at DraftKings ➜|
|Patrick Mahomes||+900 at DraftKings ➜|
|Justin Herbert||+1400 at DraftKings ➜|
|Aaron Rodgers||+1000 at DraftKings ➜|
|Joe Burrow||+1200 at DraftKings ➜|
|Russell Wilson||+1400 at DraftKings ➜|
|Matthew Stafford||+1600 at DraftKings ➜|
|Dak Prescott||+1600 at DraftKings ➜|
Mahomes' price is decent right now, but you’re still paying a bit of a premium. If you like him, wait for a slip and a better return. It’s far too early to back anyone here under +1000.
Patrick Mahomes II Passing TDs
Here are the odds on total passing touchdowns for Mahomes this season:
|Patrick Mahomes II Passing TDs||Odds|
|Over 34.5||+100 at DraftKings ➜|
|Under 34.5||-120 at DraftKings ➜|
Mahomes numbers plateaued in 2021. He completed 66.3% of his 658 attempts, he totaled 4,839 yards and threw 37 TDs against 13 picks. He missed on his projected totals of TDs (39.5) and yards (5000.5).
This number is more realistic given his average of 37.5 TD passes during his four full seasons in Kansas City.
Back Mahomes throwing more than 34.5 TD passes at +100 with DraftKings. ➜
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Patrick Mahomes II Passing Yards
Here are the odds on total passing yards for Mahomes this season:
|Over 4,500.5 Yards||-112 at FanDuel ➜|
|Under 4,500.5 Yards||-112 at FanDuel ➜|
Last season, Mahomes had the highest projected passing total of any QB in the NFL. But he missed by 166.5 yards. Tyreek Hill is in Miami. But the Chiefs added Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster. So expect the road to this number to have a few more twists and turns than it may have in the past.
Take Mahomes to go over under 4,500.5 yards passing at -112 at FanDuel ➜ this season.