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Best NFL QB Prop Bets For 2021 Season: Brady, Allen & More

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 8 mins

Best NFL QB Prop Bets For 2021 Season: Brady, Allen & More

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When it comes to NFL player props for 2021, it doesn’t have to take a Herculean effort. A QB doesn’t need to lead the league in touchdowns or passing yards. They simply need to surpass expectations.

Not everyone pegged Aaron Rodgers to pass for 48 TDs last year (or throw only five INTs). There were those who thought Justin Herbert would have a solid rookie season, but to pass for a rookie-record 4,336 yards, sixth-most in the NFL and in only 15 games? Needless to say, that was an easy win for the Over.

This season should have its share of overachievers, and those who won’t quite hit the mark. Bookies.com breaks down and the quarterback landscape in 2021 and has revealed five QB props to back at NFL sportsbooks.

Five QB Prop Bets To Back In 2021

QBProp BetOdds
Tom BradyOver 4,650 Yards Passing+100 at TwinSpires
Josh AllenUnder 34.5 Touchdowns -115 at DraftKings
Baker MayfieldOver 3,950 Yards -115 at DraftKings
Ben RoethlisbergerOver 12.5 Interceptions-118 at FOX Bet
Lamar JacksonOver 900.5 Yards Rushing -110 at FanDuel

NFL odds current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings vs FanDuel review for the latest comparison on the two operators.

Tom Brady, Over 4,650 Yards Passing

Odds: +100 at TwinSpires

After 20 years under the same head coach in New England, Brady faced a brand-new landscape, new game plan and new personnel his first season in Tampa Bay. Needless to say, it went well: The Buccaneers won the Super Bowl and Brady threw for 4,633 yards, 40 TDs and 12 INTs.

CHECK OUT: Best NFL Team Futures To Back In 2021

And yet, there is room for improvement. This is Year 2 in the system, and every target is back as well. Brady has played 16 games in 11 of the last 12 seasons. He gets 17 games to hit a similar mark this season. Brady stays healthy and a 5,000-yard season isn’t out of the question. He misses one game, and this prop can still hit Over for you at betting sites.

Josh Allen, Under 34.5 Touchdowns

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Allen had a breakout junior season in Buffalo, passing for 4,544 yards and 37 TDs. This number is set noticeably lower despite one additional game on the schedule. Why? For one, the leap from his second season to his third was immense, perhaps too immense – he added nearly 1,500 more yards passing and 17 more TDs en route to NFL MVP runner-up honors.

Best NFL QB Prop Bets For 2021 Season: Brady, Allen & More 1

In addition, the emergence of the Bills run game – Zack Moss and Devin Singletary are both on the upswing and Allen himself is a threat – will take away from pass TD options. Buffalo had one of the worst success rates running in the red zone last year. To make the team better, that must improve. Allen will get his, but many of them will be with his feet and not his arm so back the under on NFL futures markets.

CHECK OUT: Best NFL Player Futures To Back In 2021

Baker Mayfield, Over 3,950 Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Mayfield averaged 239 yards per game in 2019, a number that dropped to 223 in 2020 thanks to the emerging ground game that turned out to be the second-best in football, plus the loss of Odell Beckham Jr. and slight fall of Jarvis Landry.

But Mayfield advanced as a QB himself. While his yardage total was 264 yards lower, his TDs increased by four and most importantly, his INTs dropped from 21 to only eight. Now, with the handcuffs off and defenses forced to focus on Cleveland’s ground attack, Mayfield’s passing opportunities should increase by a great margin. If he plays all 17 games, his average yards per outing needs to jump only nine per game to make it happen.

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Ben Roethlisberger, Over 12.5 Interceptions

Odds: -118 at FOX Bet

Big Ben has always been a risk-taker with the Steelers. That’s part of why he’s led the NFL in INTs twice and had 13-plus INTs in every year from 2015-2018. It’s also why he’s led the NFL in longest TD pass in three of the last seven seasons.

Best NFL QB Prop Bets For 2021 Season: Brady, Allen & More 2

With age comes less arm strength, and those bombs are more likely to turn into INTs. In addition, the Steelers are projected by many to have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL in 2021. Take an immobile QB that likes to take risks and doesn't want to be dragged down, and that scenario likely adds up to a few more for the defense. Roethlisberger will rack up the yards and TDs, too, but INTs have been part of his discussion for a while.

Lamar Jackson, Over 900.5 Yards Rushing

Odds: -110 at FanDuel

Lamar Jackson was an unstoppable force in 2019. He won the NFL MVP award that season, led the NFL with 36 pass TDs but tossed for only 3,127 yards. But he also ran for 1,206 yards. Last year all his numbers went down, including his rushing. But he still amassed 1,005 yards.

When Jackson is on the move, good things happen for the Ravens. Baltimore attempted to up the target strength in the pass game, but it’s rushing that fuels the team with Jackson and second-year RB J.K. Dobbins leading the charge. Jackson reached 1,000 yards the last two seasons in only 15 games each. If he does 15 again (out of 17), he should blow this prop way Over at sportsbooks and betting apps.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.