The lead in the AFC East is on the line as the 9-5 New England Patriots play host to the 8-6 Buffalo Bills.

The Bills have been the winner in three of their last seven visits to New England, but it’s the hometown Patriots who are the choice in NFL betting circles. The Patriots are 2.5-point home favorites, but are they the choice when making your NFL picks?

Take a look at Bills vs Patriots odds, injury report, betting lines and more.

Bills vs Patriots Key Matchups

Buffalo’s Resurgent Run Game vs Patriots Defense: In last week’s loss to Indianapolis, Colts RB Jonathan Taylor cut through the Pats for 170 yards on the ground. Buffalo’s Devin Singletary when for 86 yards on a career-high 22 carries against Carolina. If the Bills move the ball on the ground, it makes QB Josh Allen’s life a lot easier.

Bills Must Make Mac Jones Win Game: When the Pats beat Buffalo 14-10 in Week 12, New England rookie QB Mac Jones was required to throw a minimal three passes. The Patriots ground out the win by running the ball. The Bills can’t let Jones off the hook again.

Will The Pats Rebound? Last week was New England’s first loss since the Pats were 2-4. Coming out of their bye week, the Patriots saw their seven-game win streak end. Was it just an off week, or will the Bills prove they are the better team on Sunday? It's a shame New York sports betting isn't online in time for this game.

5 Key Bills vs Patriots Stats

15: All eight of Buffalo’s victories this season have been achieved by margins of 15 or more points. Only one of New England’s five losses are by a margin of 15+ points.

6: Games with 2+ TD passes for Mac Jones. That ties the New England rookie record set by Jim Plunkett in 1971.

12: Interceptions thrown by Bills QB Josh Allen. That ties his career high.

9: TD receptions by Patriots TE Hunter Henry, a career high.

44: Consecutive games with a reception for Bills WR Cole Beasley. That streak will end Sunday. Unvaccinated Beasley is in the NFL COVID-19 protocol and won’t play.

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Bills vs Patriots Weather Forecast

The Patriots are delivering Buffalo weather to Gillette Stadium for Sunday’s game. There’s going to be snow, 14-mph wind and a temperature of 28 degrees. The Bills are 2-4 straight up in their last six December games at Foxborough. New England is 19-2 SU in the last 21 December games against Buffalo.

Bills vs Patriots Moneyline

Straight up, Buffalo has won two of three from New England. However, the Patriots are 8-2 SU against the Bills in their last 10 meetings and 17-3 over the past 20 games played at Foxborough. New England is just 3-4 at home this season. The Patriots and the AFC North’s Cincinnati Bengals (3-4) are the only division leaders with losing records at home.

Buffalo is 4-3 on the road this season. Two of Buffalo’s three road losses are to divisional leaders (Tennessee, AFC South, Tampa Bay NFC South). However, the Bills are 2-0 on the road against AFC East opponents. Take the +115 being offered on Buffalo at betting sites in the moneyline.

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Bills vs Patriots Point Spread

In NFL spreads as a home favorite, the Patriots are 3-2 ATS this season. Buffalo is 1-1 ATS as an away underdog. New England is 5-0 ATS the last five games in which the Patriots were favored. The Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against Buffalo.

Buffalo is a disappointing 1-4-1 ATS in the last six games when facing AFC opposition. However, the Bills are a stellar 4-1-1 ATS when facing an AFC East team. They’ll rule again in this contest against any AFC East squad. Take the 2.5 points offered by betting apps and go with the underdog Bills.

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Bills vs Patriots Totals

The last time these two teams met, the final was 14-10 New England. Bettors will find that sportsbooks are offering a total of 43.5 points on this game. Before the game earlier this season, Buffalo and New England went over the 43.5-point total in three successive meetings.

The Bills have gone over in four of their last six games, as well as in 11 of the club’s past 16 road games. By contrast, the total has gone under in four of New England’s past six games but over in four of the Patriots’ past five home games. That last game feels like the exception to the rule. Play the Over at BetMGM – and if you are a new bettor, you can use the BetMGM bonus code to get a risk-free first bet of up to $1,000.

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