Dak Prescott Contract Does Not Reflect Record Against Spread
Bill Speros | 6 mins
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Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has gone all-win with Dak Prescott, signing the quarterback to a four-year contract worth up to $164 million.
The deal includes $126 million guaranteed, a $66 million signing bonus and a mind-boggling $75 million total in Year 1, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. The numbers represent just the latest plateau in a rising market for franchise, top-gun QB across the NFL. Prescott is now the second-highest-paid QB in the NFL, behind Patrick Mahomes.
Prescott, 27, saw his 2020 season end in in Week 5 after with a compound fracture and dislocation of his right ankle in a game against the New York Giants. Cowboys fans, players, NFL types and analysts will be debating whether or not Jones has spent his money wisely until either the Cowboys win a Super Bowl with Prescott or move on from him to another quarterback.
Those who back Dak Prescott when betting on the NFL haven’t fared much better than Jones and the Cowboys when it comes to getting a big-money bang out of Prescott. A fourth-round pick from Mississippi State, Prescott was the eighth QB taken in the 2016 draft. Prescott has started each of the 72 regular-season and playoff games he has played for the Cowboys.
Long-Term Dak Prescott Bettors In The Hole
Despite some impressive stats – including a career 66% completion rate and 106 passing TDs vs just 40 INTs – Prescott is a mediocre 36-35-1 against the spread. That includes a bumpy 0-5 run ATS in 2020 before his injury.
Our system of betting $100 on Prescott ATS each week of his NFL career with the sports betting standard -110 line per spread would leave bettors $260 in the hole after five seasons. Jones should be so lucky. Not all spreads are created equally, but for this exercise, we used the Cowboys ATS records since 2016 via Pro Football Reference.
Now that the Cowboys have solidified their starting quarterback and his contract situation, let’s take a look at where Prescott and America’s Team stand across NFL futures markets.
Top QBs Against The Spread: Tom Brady| Ben Roethlisberger | Patrick Mahomes
2021 Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys Betting Futures
Cowboys To Win Super Bowl 2021
There was minimal movement at some sportsbooks after news of Prescott’s deal broke, but the Cowboys have settled at +2800 to win the Super Bowl at bet365 and several other sportsbooks. The price mirrors that of the Tennessee Titans to win it all at SoFi Stadium on Feb. 6, 2022.
When it comes to playoff success, the Cowboys have endured what amounts to near famine since winning their last Super Bowl when Bill Clinton was president. The signing of Prescott ends two years of drama between Jones and Prescott’s camp over a long-term deal. That there is some sort of stability at the QB position can only help.
The lingering issue remains the room/cap space available to build around Prescott. Surprisingly, the Prescott deal lowers Dallas’ salary cap exposure by about $15 million this year. In two years, Prescott may be as big a steal at $40 million per year as Brady was at $25 million in 2020.
It’s too much of an ask for any team to go from missing out on the playoffs and sub .500 record to go all the way to a Super Bowl title without making a major change at the QB position. But this is a nice first step for this mismanaged franchise.
Cowboys To Win The NFC Championship
As time progressed this offseason, the momentum grew more and more in Prescott’s favor even with his injury. Prescott bet it all on himself before last season by eschewing a long-term deal and settling for the franchise tag. His injury was ugly to watch in real time, but the Cowboys must believe Prescott is fully recovered.
The Cowboys have not played in a Conference Championship game since January of 1996 and have only won three playoff games during that tepid span. Dallas is +1300 to win the NFC title at multiple books, including DraftKings. Will that change this year? In a conference that features Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson (for now, anyway)? In word, “no.” Take a pass on this one.
Cowboys To Win The NFC East
Prescott is 43-29 overall (including the postseason). He offers versatility seen in few other top QBs with 24 rushing TDs. Even more concerning for the Cowboys is how quickly they fell apart without Prescott last season. An 8-8 finish would have won the NFC East, yet the Cowboys couldn’t even muster that without Prescott.
Assuming Prescott stays healthy and plays 16 games – as he did in four of his first five seasons – the Cowboys hold the edge in the East. Washington won the division last year with a 7-9 record but faces uncertainty at starting quarterback. The Giants and Eagles are spinning in circles. Dallas is +100 to win the NFC East is a solid price and a smart bet.
Dak Prescott To Win NFL MVP
Finally, we get some value for the potential of what the Cowboys are paying for this year. Prescott set career bests in with 4,902 passing yards and 30 TDs in 2019. His numbers were headed to the moon before his injury last fall. He had nine TD passes, four picks and was on pace break the NFL single-season passing record with 1,856 yards in just five starts.
Prescott is +1700 to win the NFL MVP honors at PointsBet. Mahomes (+500) and defending defending MVP Rodgers (+800) are the favorites. Among the second-tier group of QBs, Prescott is fetching the same price as LA Rams QB Matthew Stafford and Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson.
Prescott will have no problem seizing the national spotlight playing for the Cowboys, which doesn’t hurt a potential NFL candidate who is putting strong numbers. For the value offered, betting Prescott to win the NFL MVP a worthy wager.