Homefield advantage for a playoff game could ultimately be on the line when Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys host Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions in a marquee Week 17 Saturday Night Football showdown. 

The Cowboys (10-5) are unbeaten and downright dominant at home so far. The Lions (11-4) have clinched the NFC North and are still in play for the overall No. 1 seed and first-round bye in the NFC Playoffs. 

It makes for a good day of watching football. Bookies.com handicapper Adam Thompson, who has hit on a whopping 62-64% of his NFL picks three years running, reveals his plays for the big Saturday night matchup.

Lions vs. Cowboys Odds

Lions vs. Cowboys Point Spread Pick

The Cowboys average a ridiculous 39.9 ppg at home, the most in the NFL, and their 15.4 ppg allowed at home is third-lowest. No team has been better at their friendly confines. 

But the Lions are 6-2 overall and ATS on the road. They’ve fared well taking on teams led more by offense than defense, including road wins vs. Vikings (30-24), Chargers (41-38), Buccaneers (20-6) and Chiefs (21-10). Dallas’ mark vs. division contenders has not been good. The Lions can hang, and they can score, front door or back. Take the points with the Lions to cover. 

 Lions vs. Cowboys Over/Under Best Bet

The Lions have scored 30-plus points in five of their last seven games. The Cowboys have scored 30-plus in every home game so far. Who’s going to stop anyone enough times to keep this under the posted total? 

Our guess: Nobody. The last five Cowboys home games have averaged 63.2 total points, the last five Lions games indoors have averaged 60.2 ppg. This is a high total, and prime time games have trended toward defense. We still like the Over. 

Lions vs. Cowboys Moneyline Pick

The favored Cowboys are -218 on the moneyline (wager $218 to win $100 in profit), while the underdog Lions are at +180 (wager $100 to win $180 in profit). We’re siding with the Lions to cover, but what about the straight-up wager at high odds?

We’re leaning not. Dallas is unbeaten at home and only one of the games was remotely close. The Lions could very well win, but Goff’s penchant for turnovers on the road makes us wary. Backing Detroit to win at +180 is the preferred play, but we prefer adding the points with the Lions.

Lions vs. Cowboys Top Player Props

Tony Pollard, Under 54.5 Rushing Yards

Odds: -115 at BetMGM

Pollard averaged 5.5 and 5.2 yards per carry as Ezekiel Elliott’s partner over the last two seasons. As the feature back this year, though, that number has plummeted to just 4.0 per carry. He’d gained between 51 and 79 yards in eight straight before being held to 38 on 12 carries last week vs. the Dolphins. Detroit ranks No. 1 in the fewest rush yards allowed, at 3.7 yards per clip. Take the Under on Pollard at BetMGM. 

Dak Prescott, Over 16.5 Rushing Yards 

Odds: -114 at Caesars Sportsbook

Prescott has at least three carries in four straight games and 23-plus yards in three of those four. Prior to that, he’d eclipsed 20 yards just twice, so he’s looking more for his opportunities to take off. No team has allowed more rushing attempts (5.9 per game), or rushing yards (27.1), to opposing QBs more than the Lions. Back Prescott on the Over at Caesars.