New Orleans just got blanked by the 49ers, but the Saints have had the Buccaneers’ number, and Tom Brady’s number since he joined Tampa (11 TDs, 11 turnovers). It’s a good matchup for NO against the one-dimensional Bucs offense, and a good bounce-back spot for Kamara. 

Brady doesn’t like being pressured, and Tampa could be without its top two OL. The Bucs have covered the spread just once in their last nine games. The Saints have covered the spread in their last four visits to Tampa and Saints with the points is one of my favorite plays of Week 13, provided you can get the full 3.5. 

Neither of these teams have been as good offensively as hoped, which is why the Under remains king on both sides. It’s hit in six of the Bucs’ last seven games and in four of five for the Saints. It’s also on a 4-1 run when both teams are on the same field. 

The teams played to just 30 total points in Week 2, and not enough has changed to expect a shootout this time around. We think the Saints keep it close mainly by pressuring Brady, not by keeping up. The Under is the better of the two sides. 

The Saints are +165 on the moneyline, while the Buccaneers are posted at -195. This is a game the Saints can win – after all, no team has done better at thwarting Tom Brady, and the defensive coordinator for those past games is the head coach now. 

That said, New Orleans doesn’t upset many teams. The Saints have been the underdog eight times this year, and have one straight-up win to show for it (24-0 over the Raiders). We like the points on the dog and will stay content with a three-point Saints defeat. Shy away from the moneyline this Monday. 

Mike Evans, Over 60.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

The Saints defense overall is stout, but it does allow 156.8 receiving yards per game to WRs, a below-average rate that Evans can take advantage of. The standout averaged 82.4 receiving yards per game through Week 8 but the last three weeks hasn't eclipsed 54. This number is low enough to back the Over. 

Tom Brady, Longest Pass Under 36.5 Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

The Saints rank No. 8 in the NFL in fewest pass yards allowed, and giving up the big play has mostly been wiped out from their issues. After allowing six plays of 40 yards or longer in the opening six weeks, the Saints have allowed just one pass over 36 yards in the past six weeks. Conversely, Brady has just one completion over 35 yards in the last six weeks. We’ll take all those trends.