Teams coming off a bye have not just an extra week of rest, but an extra week to reassess what’s working, what isn’t and two weeks to game plan for the next opponent. Apparently, those two weeks are one too many for a majority of squads. Teams coming off their bye week a 5-11 against the spread at sportsbooks – just 31.3% of the time they’re covering their NFL odds.

Of the 11 teams that couldn’t get it done after the bye, six of them did so in spectacular fashion. The Raiders, Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, Buccaneers and Jets failed to cover by an average of 18.9 ppg. Not all teams were that dreadful. Washington (+10) straight-up beat the Buccaneers 29-19 in Week 10 off its bye, and Pittsburgh (+5) beat the Browns 15-10 in the same situation.

I have hit on 63% of my best bets in the 2021 NFL season, and over 60% each of the last three seasons. I checked out all the spreads for Sunday’s action at betting sites, and these are my five top NFL betting plays against the spread.

RELATED: NFL Week 11 Odds & Betting Lines For Every Game

NFL Week 11 Sunday Best Bets

Cardinals-Seahawks Under 47.5

Kyler Murray is a gametime decision; even if he plays, DeAndre Hopkins is out. Regardless of who’s at QB, this number hasn’t been hit in a Cardinals game in four straight. Seattle’s defense has dramatically improved the last month, and Russell Wilson clearly isn’t the same following his finger issue, or least he wasn’t in a shutout loss last week. Both teams are without key rushing pieces. (Locked in at Under 47.5 at FanDuel)

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Browns ATS over Lions

Baker Mayfield is banged up, Nick Chubb didn’t play last week and the Browns got throttled by 38 points by the Patriots last week. Still, across the board there are only good matchups vs. a Lions team that ranks 28th in yards gained, 28th in yards allowed and 29th/30th in points scored/allowed. That’s why they are huge favorites at betting apps.

The Browns need to get back on track to meet any expectations. At home against a Lions team that has zero identity, this should be a rout. (Locked in at -10 at BetMGM)

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Saints ATS over Eagles

This one is about matchups. Philly is playing as well as anyone thanks to a run-run-run philosophy. Unfortunately, no team allows fewer rushing yards than the Saints. New Orleans wins the battle of both trenches on paper, and the Eagles’ own inability to slow a rush attack will hurt here vs. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram.

Trevor Siemian has five TDs and on INTs in three games. The last two were losses, each by two points (and they should have beaten the Titans without the refs’ assistance). (Locked in at +1.5 at PointsBet)

Bills ATS over Colts

The Bills are 6-3, but then they win they win with unrelenting power. All six of their victories have been by at least 15 points. The Colts are no joke, and this will be one of the tougher games for Buffalo. But the Bills rank No. 3 vs. the run and No. 2 vs. the pass. They stuff RBs and put pressure on QBs. Indy ranks in the bottom-half vs. both the run and pass and is 0-4 vs. teams with above-.500 records. (Locked in at -7 at Caesars)

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Raiders ATS over Bengals

Vegas was humiliated in prime time by Patrick Mahomes on Sunday night, but let’s not forget, the Bengals have also lost two straight, allowing 34 and 41 points to the Jets and banged-up Browns. This is a good get-straight home game for the Raiders, who can rattle Joe Burrow. Prior to getting torched by the Chiefs, the Raiders ranked No. 4 vs. the pass. Cincy ranks 24th vs. the pass. (Locked in at +1 at DraftKings)

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