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NFL Week 14 Betting Recap: 'Worst Weekend Of The Year'

Bill Speros for Bookies.com

Bill Speros  | 9 mins

NFL Week 14 Betting Recap: 'Worst Weekend Of The Year'

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A blizzard of chalk swept across the NFL betting nation in Week 14, burying the books and turning the map green for the wagering masses from SoFi Stadium to FedEx Field, north to Green Bay and south to the Florida Gulf Coast.

The “worst weekend of the year” for at least one book stuffed the wallets of the betting public just in time for the closing stretch of the holiday shopping season.

Or the Monday night game between the Rams and Cardinals. Whichever comes first.

For the second week in a row, nearly every game carrying the lopsided liability had betting sites and sportsbooks shoveling out from under a mountain of winning slips for bettors.

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The public’s success against NFL odds carried over into props and parlay bets, as popular props on the likes of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook , and even Josh Allen, smashed through the over on their totals.

At WynnBET, three of the book’s top four liabilities all went the public’s way. And the fourth saw serious line movement during the week. The Broncos (-11) ended the betting joyride of the Detroit Lions in a 38-10 rout.

At Tampa Bay, Tom Brady turned back into The GOAT in overtime after the Bucs blew a 21-point lead in the second half. The Buccaneers (-3) crushed the souls of Bills Mafia with a 33-27 overtime win. That game ended with the 700th TD pass of Brady’s career, including the postseason. Finally, the visiting Seattle Seahawks (-9) found their footing with a 33-13 victory at Houston. The public backed those games with 74.1%, 77.3% and 89.9% of the handle money, respectively, on the site.

The Browns closed at -3 against the Ravens after opening at even. A total of 80.3% of the spread handle supported Cleveland. So depending on when you wagered, you might have cashed backing the Browns in a 24-22 win.

Week 14 Betting By The Numbers

NFL Week 14 Betting Recap: 'Worst Weekend Of The Year' 1

There were four games Sunday had more than 75% of spread handle riding with the public at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook. The books lost on all of them. Here’s a look:

Game ResultSpreadPublic %
NO at NYJ NO, 30-9NO -5 86% at FanDuel
SEA at HOU SEA, 33-13SEA -9 82% at DraftKings
JAX at TEN TEN, 20-0TEN -8.5 80% at DraftKings
NYG at LAC LAC, 37-21LAC -979% at FanDuel

The run on unders this season hit some black ice, giving the books a bit of oxygen. Unders were 109-84-2 (56.4%) heading into Week 14. It was the highest rate since 1986, according to Elias Sports.

At Caesars Sportsbook, 11 of the 13 games played in Week 14 had the majority of money wagered on the under. But seven of those went over the total. That included the Falcons-Panthers game, which saw 95% of the handle liability wagered under the total of 41. The Falcons won 29-21.

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’Worst Weekend Of The Year’

The feedback from the books following Sunday’s carnage confirm what the numbers told us.

“In a word: ‘Terrible.’ Straight up, parlays, teasers . . . we lost on all of it,” said Borgata AC Race and Sports Book Director Thomas Gable.

“It was just a great day for the bettors. At least people will some have some extra Christmas money to spend.”

The MGM Lion was declawed, as well.

“Christmas came early for sports bettors on Sunday in the NFL with the favorites covering. It was the worst weekend of the year for the sportsbook,” said Jason Scott, VP of Trading at BetMGM Sportsbook.

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As was the case elsewhere, the Tampa Bay-Buffalo game was close to a two-way play at the Borgata.

“The Bucs-Bills game was a mixed bag for us,” Gable said. “We needed Tampa on the spread as we had liability on Buffalo but so many favorites came in that adding Tampa to all of the moneyline parlay liability didn’t help matters overall for us.”

The first 13 games of Week 14 saw the favorites go 11-2. It was worst week of the year for the dogs. Betting underdogs have seen their season advantage consistently slip since Week 8. The pups still hold a 109-95-1 (53.1%) edge after 205 games. But the public is gaining.

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Week 14 NFL Betting Trends

NFL Week 14 Betting Recap: 'Worst Weekend Of The Year' 2

Close Calls Continue

Spread, total and moneyline bettors were unable to relax until the final gun for much of the day Sunday after they were forced to stay up for the completion of the Thursday night game won by the Vikings (barely) over the Steelers.

A total 28 games, or nearly two full weeks of play, have been decided by a game-winning score on the final play this season. That’s the most through Week 14 in the history of the league. We had two more of those outcomes on Sunday. One was the aforementioned 33-27 OT win by the Buccaneers over Buffalo. Brady’s former teammate Jimmy Garoppolo lifted the 49ers over the Bengals 26-23 in overtime with a 12-yard TD pass to Brandon Aiyuk.

In both games, neither the spread nor total was settled until the final play.

The NFL says 39 games have seen the game-winning score happen in the final minute of regulation or OT this year. Thus far in 2021, 17 games have gone into overtime.

Major Week 14 Wagers

There were Big Bets aplenty in Week 14. Here are some notable net wins and losses:

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Monday Night Preview: LA Rams at Arizona Cardinals

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The fate of the NFC West and the top seed in the NFC will undoubtedly be impacted by the result of the Monday night game between the host Arizona Cardinals (10-2) and the sinking LA Rams (8-4). The Cardinals beat the Rams in LA 37-20 in Week 4.

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The Cardinals boast the best record in the NFL and are third in the league ATS at 9-3, much to the joy of Arizona sports betting backers. The Rams, however, are below .500 (5-7) vs. the line. All four of their outright losses came as betting favorites. The Rams are underdogs for just the second time all season. The last time the Rams were betting underdogs, they beat the Buccaneers (-1) in Week 3 at home 34-24.

The Cardinals opened as 4.5-point favorites. This line has slid to 2.5. The total spiked from 48 points to 51.5 points, but has since settled at 51, according to our consensus analysis of several top sportbooks, including bet365, PointsBet and FOX Bet.

Teams on Bye in Week 14: New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis Colts.

About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.