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Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers Picks & SNF Predictions

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 8 mins

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers Picks & SNF Predictions

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A Week 11 AFC matchup with big playoff implications kicks off on Sunday Night Football when Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers host Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Chargers (5-4) have dropped three of four, while the Steelers (5-3-1) are coming off an uninspiring tie with the winless Lions, though Roethlisberger (COVID-19) did not play.

A win could pay postseason dividends down the road. Betting sites and most betting apps have Los Angeles at -4.5 in the latest Steelers vs. Chargers NFL spreads range, with the line having moved a point from -3.5 at opening.

Take a look at Chargers vs. Steelers odds, injury report, betting lines and more.

Steelers vs. Chargers Key Matchups

Najee Harris vs. Everybody: Harris has received 22-26 carries in the Steelers’ last five games, and the Steelers are 4-0-1 in that span. The Chargers have the worst run defense in the league.

Pat Freiermuth vs. Chargers Red Zone Defense: L.A. allows more TDs to tight ends per game than any other team. Freiermuth ranks third on the Steelers in receptions and fourth in receiving yards, but is tops on the team in scores (4).

Keenan Allen vs. End Zones: Allen ranks third in the NFL in receptions and fifth in targets. He’s a modest 14th in receiving yards, but his two TDs put him tied for 67th.

5 Key Steelers vs. Chargers Stats

0.3: Interceptions per game by the Steelers defense so far; only the Jets have fewer picks. Pittsburgh has no INTs on the road. L.A. QB Justin Herbert, however, has seven INTs this season, including five in five home games.

4.3: The average receptions per game for Chargers RB Austin Ekeler. Last the season the pass-catching back averaged 5.4, and 5.8 the year before.

11: The amount of rushing attempts by Benny Snell, the second-most for the Steelers this season. Najee Harris has 176 carries.

63.5: The QBR of Chargers QB Justin Herbert, fourth-best in the NFL. Ben Roethlisberger (41.9) ranks 27th out of 33 qualifying QBs.

155.1: The yards rushing allowed by the Chargers. Not only is that the most in the NFL, it’s the most by nearly 20 yards per game.

RELATED: NFL Week 11 Odds & Betting Lines For All Games

Steelers vs. Chargers Weather Forecast

It should be a perfect Sunday evening in the City of Angels. The forecast calls for a high of 82 degrees, with sunny skies and no chance of rain. Temperatures for kickoff will drop, but likely only into the high 60s. It’s the warmest day, and night, of a week in L.A. that isn’t expecting any precipitation.

Steelers vs Chargers Player Props

Mike Williams, Over 54.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -110 at FanDuel

Williams has fallen out of favor lately in L.A, but he had four catches last week after managing two in each of the previous three games. The Steelers’ defensive backfield is decimated, however, and Williams is the guy who can benefit most from a lack of DB depth. Four of the Chargers first five games he had 80-plus yards, so he’s very capable.

Najee Harris, Over 114.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards

Odds: -110 at BetMGM

This is a lot of all-purpose yards, but Harris is it for the Steelers. He’s eclipsed 120 in four of the last five Pittsburgh games when the team made the rookie RB its offensive focus. The Chargers allow far more rush yards than any other team, which doesn’t hurt.

Chris Boswell, Over 6.5 Points

Odds: +100 at BetMGM

The Steelers offense is good-not-great, offering Boswell a lot of opportunities. He has scored under seven points just twice in nine games. He’s scored less than six points just once and has at least one field goal in every game. Three of the last four week’s he’s had 3-for-3 field goal games. The Chargers are allowing the sixth-most FGs in the league.

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Steelers vs. Chargers Moneyline

When it comes to NFL betting on the moneyline, favored L.A. is a modest -210 on the moneyline, while Pittsburgh is set at +160.

The Steelers had won four in a row before tying the winless Lions. That was without Roethlisberger and he’s expected back, but the four victories were all vs. non-playoff teams, and all were close games that came down to the wire. The Chargers haven’t shown much consistency either, but the defense matches up well with Pittsburgh’s pass attack. A Chargers moneyline pick is enticing for Sunday night. Get them at -195 with DraftKings.

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Steelers vs. Chargers Point Spread

The Chargers are favored by 4.5 points on a point-spread line that makes Pittsburgh an enticing option. Neither of these teams have been good at meeting oddsmakers' expectations; the Steelers have covered just once in the last four games and three times all season, the Chargers are also 1-3 ATS in their last four.

The edge for Pittsburgh comes in the form of Najee Harris, who should get the ball often vs. the Chargers’ porous run defense. But if Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense can get a lead, that changes everything. Neither side is worth a wager here.

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Steelers vs. Chargers Totals

NFL sportsbooks have posted an Over/Under of 47 points for Sunday Night Football – that number dropped 1.5 points since opening with the availability of Roethlisberger in question early on.

There is no doubt the Under is the trend for both sides here. The Under is 6-2 in the Chargers’ last eight home games and is 7-2 in the last nine Steelers games anywhere. Not only that, only one Pittsburgh game has managed 47 points all season.

The Chargers are No. 2 vs. the pass but can’t stop the run, which should mean more of it from the Steelers. That saps the clock. The number is high enough to back the Under on your NFL picks lineup for Week 11. You can get Under 47 (-110) at FanDuel.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.