Super Bowl Rematch From Regular Season: Key Betting Trends
When the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers meet for Super Bowl 2021, it won’t be the first time they’ve faced off this season.
They played in Week 12. The teams combined for 960 yards of offense, and Patrick Mahomes passed for 462 yards and three TDs in a 27-24 KC victory. Tom Brady threw for 356 yards and also three TDs, but two INTs as well.
When they meet again at Raymond James Stadium for the rematch, it will be the 14th time in Super Bowl history featuring a regular season rematch. Are there trends that can be taken from the previous 13 times we’ve had a re-do for the Lombardi Trophy? The answer is yes.
History of Super Bowl Rematches From Regular Season
|Super Bowl, Yr||Reg. Season||Super Bowl|
|LV, 2021||Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 24||???|
|XLVI, 2012||Giants 24, Patriots 20||Giants 21, Patriots 17|
|XLII, 2008||Patriots 38, Giants 35||Giants 17, Patriots 14|
|XXXVI, 2002||Rams 24, Patriots 17||Patriots 20, Rams 17|
|XXXIV, 2000||Titans 24, Rams 21||Rams 23, Titans 16|
|XXIV, 1995||49ers 38, Chargers 15||49ers 49, Chargers 26|
|XXXVIII, 1994||Bills 13, Cowboys 10||Cowboys 30, Bills 13|
|XXV, 1991||Bills 17, Giants 13||Giants 20, Bills 19|
|XXI, 1987||Giants 19, Broncos 16||Giants 39, Broncos 20|
|XX, 1986||Bears 20, Patriots 7||Bears 46, Patriots 10|
|XVIII, 1984||Redskins 37, Raiders 35||Raiders 38, Redskins 9|
|XVI, 1982||49ers 21, Bengals 3||49ers 26, Bengals 21|
|XV, 1981||Eagles 10, Raiders 7||Raiders 27, Eagles 10|
|XII, 1978||Cowboys 14, Broncos 6||Cowboys 27, Broncos 10|
Super Bowl Rematch of Regular Season Trends
Moneyline: Of the 13 Super Bowl rematches, the team that won the regular season game went just 6-7 in the Big Game. But recent history shows a decided advantage. The last seven times it’s occurred, the regular season loser has been a Super Bowl winner a whopping five times (71.4%).
Of the two times there was a sweep, one involved a dominant 49ers that blasted the Chargers by 23 in the regular season, was favored by a record 18.5 points and won by 23 again. The other was the Giants’ last-minute 21-17 win over the Patriots in 2012.
The non sweeps include a pair of massive underdogs – the Giants (+12.5) in 2007 and Patriots (+14) in 2001 – winning outright.
Against The Spread: Given a second chance, the underdog has been successful lately, covering the last three instances. Overall, they’re only 6-7. But what about small spreads? Sunday’s Chiefs vs. Buccaneers showdown is at -3. In the four Super Bowl rematches with a spread set at under six points, the underdog is 3-1.
Over/Under: Oddsmakers have expected offense in the second games of these seasonal rematches. They’ve been wrong. Accounting for all 13 games, the Under is a massive 10-3 (76.9%). That includes the last four and six of the last seven. The last three games, the Under has hit by at least 15 points in each.
The only three times it’s hit Over were in overmatched routs; the winning team in those games averaged 44.7 ppg. The spreads were -9.5 or higher for all three and none were close.
The Tom Brady Factor
The chart above has a noticeable trend at the very top. Every rematch the last 20 years has featured the New England Patriots – and Tom Brady.
Results, however, have been mixed. Of those three instances, once Brady’s Pats won the regular season game but lost the Super Bowl; once they lost in the regular season but won the title; and the third they were swept by Eli Manning and the Giants. The underdog has covered the spread in all three rematch games featuring No. 12.