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Super Bowl Rematch From Regular Season: Key Betting Trends

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 4 mins

Super Bowl Rematch From Regular Season: Key Betting Trends

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When the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers meet for Super Bowl 2021, it won’t be the first time they’ve faced off this season.

They played in Week 12. The teams combined for 960 yards of offense, and Patrick Mahomes passed for 462 yards and three TDs in a 27-24 KC victory. Tom Brady threw for 356 yards and also three TDs, but two INTs as well.

When they meet again at Raymond James Stadium for the rematch, it will be the 14th time in Super Bowl history featuring a regular season rematch. Are there trends that can be taken from the previous 13 times we’ve had a re-do for the Lombardi Trophy? The answer is yes.

CHECK OUT: Our Ultimate Super Bowl 2021 Betting Guide and get senior handicapper Adam Thompson's picks exclusively at BookiesEDGE .

History of Super Bowl Rematches From Regular Season

Super Bowl, YrReg. SeasonSuper Bowl
LV, 2021Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 24???
XLVI, 2012 Giants 24, Patriots 20Giants 21, Patriots 17
XLII, 2008Patriots 38, Giants 35Giants 17, Patriots 14
XXXVI, 2002Rams 24, Patriots 17Patriots 20, Rams 17
XXXIV, 2000Titans 24, Rams 21Rams 23, Titans 16
XXIV, 199549ers 38, Chargers 1549ers 49, Chargers 26
XXXVIII, 1994Bills 13, Cowboys 10Cowboys 30, Bills 13
XXV, 1991Bills 17, Giants 13Giants 20, Bills 19
XXI, 1987Giants 19, Broncos 16Giants 39, Broncos 20
XX, 1986Bears 20, Patriots 7Bears 46, Patriots 10
XVIII, 1984Redskins 37, Raiders 35Raiders 38, Redskins 9
XVI, 198249ers 21, Bengals 349ers 26, Bengals 21
XV, 1981Eagles 10, Raiders 7Raiders 27, Eagles 10
XII, 1978Cowboys 14, Broncos 6Cowboys 27, Broncos 10

RELATED: Where You Can Legally Bet on Super Bowl 2021

Super Bowl Rematch of Regular Season Trends

Moneyline: Of the 13 Super Bowl rematches, the team that won the regular season game went just 6-7 in the Big Game. But recent history shows a decided advantage. The last seven times it’s occurred, the regular season loser has been a Super Bowl winner a whopping five times (71.4%).

Of the two times there was a sweep, one involved a dominant 49ers that blasted the Chargers by 23 in the regular season, was favored by a record 18.5 points and won by 23 again. The other was the Giants’ last-minute 21-17 win over the Patriots in 2012.

The non sweeps include a pair of massive underdogs – the Giants (+12.5) in 2007 and Patriots (+14) in 2001 – winning outright.

CHECK OUT: 3 Stunning Trends You Can’t Ignore When Betting on the Super Bowl

Against The Spread: Given a second chance, the underdog has been successful lately, covering the last three instances. Overall, they’re only 6-7. But what about small spreads? Sunday’s Chiefs vs. Buccaneers showdown is at -3. In the four Super Bowl rematches with a spread set at under six points, the underdog is 3-1.

Over/Under: Oddsmakers have expected offense in the second games of these seasonal rematches. They’ve been wrong. Accounting for all 13 games, the Under is a massive 10-3 (76.9%). That includes the last four and six of the last seven. The last three games, the Under has hit by at least 15 points in each.

The only three times it’s hit Over were in overmatched routs; the winning team in those games averaged 44.7 ppg. The spreads were -9.5 or higher for all three and none were close.

The Tom Brady Factor

The chart above has a noticeable trend at the very top. Every rematch the last 20 years has featured the New England Patriots – and Tom Brady.

Results, however, have been mixed. Of those three instances, once Brady’s Pats won the regular season game but lost the Super Bowl; once they lost in the regular season but won the title; and the third they were swept by Eli Manning and the Giants. The underdog has covered the spread in all three rematch games featuring No. 12.

CHECK OUT: How Much Money Would You Make Betting On Tom Brady Every Week?

About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.